Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280913
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
413 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS...FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DEEP
TROF ALONG THE E COAST. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS JUST
UPSTREAM OVER NRN ONTARIO. SO...THERE IS NO PCPN OF NOTE TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES OFF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
MENOMINEE COUNTY...AND RECENTLY FLURRIES HAVE APPEARED ON KMQT RADAR
IMAGERY IN CNTRL UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER
SRN QUEBEC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING BACK THRU THE UPPER LAKES. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN A SUNNY DAY OVER ERN UPPER
MI...ROUGHLY E OF A MUNISING-ESCANABA LINE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...THOUGH PORTIONS OF NW UPPER
MI DID HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLIER TODAY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND THE BIG IMPACT
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND
TO START THE EVENING...THE ERN FCST AREA WILL BE COLDEST TONIGHT.
LOWERED MINS TO AROUND 0F IN THAT AREA...BUT IT COULD BE 5 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THRU THE WHOLE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
STREAKING SE WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY FROM LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING NE IN
DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON COOLING AND PROBABLY
LEAD TO TEMPS RISING SOME OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA...THE EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING W...SW AND S OVER MUCH OF
MN AND WI SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNDER
LOW-LEVEL S TO SW WINDS. EVEN IF LOW CLOUDS CLEAR OUT IN SOME
AREAS...HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA. LOWS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 15-20F RANGE.

ON WED....ONE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MANITOBA WHILE A SECOND MOVES FROM WY/CO TO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE NRN WAVE...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT ESE THRU THE DAY UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
UPPER JET. WITH THE FOCUS OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST TO THE N
AND WITH DRIER AIR HOLDING ON AT LOW LEVELS...THE MAIN STREAK OF
SNOW WILL REMAIN N OF HERE WED AFTN. MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER THE SRN EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY CLIP THE AREA. BASED ON
STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES ON FCST
SOUNDINGS...THE KEWEENAW AND FAR ERN FCST AREA MAY GET CLIPPED BY A
LITTLE -SN. INCLUDED ONLY SCHC/LOW CHC POPS TO REFLECT THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LWR 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

FCST FOCUS IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE WL TURN TO THE IMPACT OF
SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWVS THAT ARE FCST TO MOVE THRU A DEEPENING
UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA THAT WL BRING A RETURN OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS
MOST OF THIS TIME TO THE CWA. WITH THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR...LES WL
ALSO BE A CONCERN.

THU...THE FIRST OF THESE CLIPPER SHRTWVS IS CURRENTLY MOVING E THRU
ALBERTA AND IS FCST TO BE NEAR FAR NW LAKE SUP AT 12Z THU BEFORE
MOVING TO NEAR THE SAULT AT 00Z FRI TO THE N OF ANOTHER SHRTWV/SFC
LO PRES DRIFTING THRU THE LOWER LKS. THE MODELS INDICATE THERE WL BE
LTL IF ANY PHASING BTWN THESE SEPARTE DISTURBANCES...SO LINGERING
LIGHT SN IN THE WAA/DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS NRN
SHRTWV SHOULD BE DIMINISHING W-E ON THU MRNG AS ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FNT SWEEPS SE AND CLEARS THE CWA BY 18Z THU. NNW H925 WINDS FCST
AS HI AS 35 TO 40 KTS UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LO MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO AND TRAILING ARCTIC HI
PRES BLDG THRU SCENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIVE MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
UPR LKS...DROPPING H85 TEMPS OVER THE UPR LKS TO ARND -20C BY 00Z
FRI. BEFORE THIS VERY COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA IN THE
AFTN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING DZ
MIXED WITH LINGERING LIGHT SN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP AS
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LYR WARMER THAN
-10C FOR A COUPLE OF HRS. THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WL FAVOR
FALLING TEMPS AND LES IN THE AFTN. SO INCLUDED A SCHC OF SOME OF
THIS WINTRY MIX. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO THE VIGOROUS
CAA/DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO DROP THE INVRN BASE TO
BTWN H85-9 DURING THE DAY...WHICH ALONG WITH A NEUTRAL/ACYC LLVL
FLOW LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SN SHOWERS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE DGZ WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LYR. WITH THE STRONG CAA/NEAR SFC
DESTABILIZATION AND THE EXPECTED H925 WINDS...WIND GUSTS AT EXPOSED
AREAS NEAR LK SUP WL AT LEAST APRCH ADVY CRITERIA AND BRING ABOUT
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SN. SINCE SN AMOUNTS WL BE MARGINAL...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. WL MENTION THE GUSTY WINDS/BLOWING SN IN THE
HWO.

THU NGT...PERSISTENT COLD BUT SLOWLY DIMINISHING NNW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF SLOWLY APRCHG SFC HI PRES WL BRING CONTINUED LES IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS...BUT AS INVRN BASE SINKS FURTHER W-E UNDER THE
LARGER SCALE DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG
AXIS...FOLLOWED TREND OF PREVIOUS FCST TO SHOW DCRSG POPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W...WHERE THE H925 FLOW WL BECOME MORE SHARPLY ACYC. OVER
THE FAR W...THE LES MAY END COMPLETELY BY 12Z WITH FCST INVRN BASE
NEAR H95. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF MAY FALL BLO
ZERO IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT CONTINUED NW SFC-H925 FLOW WL FAVOR SOME
MODERATION OFF LK SUP AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE SUB ZERO MINS.

FRI...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO SHIFT FM OVER MN INTO THE LOWER LKS. AS
WINDS BACK TO THE W...LINGERING LES OVER THE W WL BECOME CONFINED TO
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND END OVER THE E EXCEPT NEAR THE SHORE E OF
GRAND MARAIS TOWARD 00Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE LK CLDS WL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE...MORE MID/HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING SE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALF WL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPR LKS.

FRI NGT/SAT...SHRTWV IS FCST TO SLIDE ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS. SINCE
THIS DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO BE FAIRLY SHEARED OUT WITH ONLY
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MSTR INFLOW WL BE
FAIRLY LIMITED...SUSPECT ACCOMPANYING SN WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT SN OVER THE E ON SAT MRNG WL END WITH ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME LES AS
COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE SHRTWV AND DROPS H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C AGAIN
LATE. BUT MORE DIFFLUENT ACYC H925 FLOW/LO SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST IN
THE H875-9 RANGE WL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR LES INTENSITY AGAIN.

EXTENDED...UNDER A NW FLOW ALF BTWN A MEAN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND
A RDG OVER THE W...ARCTIC HI PRES IS FCST TO SINK SEWD FM WRN CANADA
ON SUN INTO UPR MS VALLEY ON MON AND THEN INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
ON TUE...BRINGING A CONTINUOUS FEED OF CNDN AIR AND H85 TEMPS
FALLING AS LO AS -25C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NUMBER OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS ARE HINTING A LO PRES WL TAKE SHAPE IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLY
ON SUN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS...BUT
INDICATE THE SFC LO WL TRACK ENE FAR ENUF TO THE SE OF UPR MI TO
KEEP THE ASSOCIATED PCPN SHIELD TO THE S AS WELL. BUT THE CHILL OF
THE INCOMING AIRMASS INDICATES LES WL BE A GOOD BET IN THE FAVORED
SN BELTS. THERE MAY BE SOME MODERATION NEXT TUE INTO WED AS THE SW
FLOW BTWN THE HI MOVING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER
SHRTWV DROPPING SE THRU SCENTRAL CANADA DRAWS H85 TEMPS IN THE -10
TO -12C RANGE BACK INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT THIS CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SN. AS THE TROF DEEPENS AGAIN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS MAY INVADE LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF WI AND MN AND ALSO MID CLOUDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FROM ONTARIO...MVFR CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FCST PD AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR BY WED AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING
FROM SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN FROM ONTARIO WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA WED EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING WITH DISTURBANCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH N-NNW GALES OF 35-40KTS.

EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO THIS MORNING TO SHIFT E AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE N PLAINS WILL MOVE TO AROUND CHICAGO ON THURSDAY...AND INTO N
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES FROM S SASKATCHEWAN
TO N LAKE SUPERIOR AND QUEBEC. IN THEIR WAKE...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE
OVER S CENTRAL CANADA TO FOLLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY...USHERING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THIS HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY...A LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH
OVER SE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. N WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-30KTS
SATURDAY-SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER W CANADA ON
SUNDAY...AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO ONTARIO JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR LSZ267.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ266.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ264-265.

  GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF



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