Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 072303
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
703 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
THROUGH NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN ONTARIO. ONE WEAK SHRTWV IN CNTRL MN
SUPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM ERN MN INTO CNTRL WI...WHILE A MORE
PROMINENT SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER WRN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SFC...GUSTY WNW WINDS PREVAILED WITH A 995 MB LOW PRES OVER NRN
ONTARIO(NEAR CYTS).

TONIGHT...THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
THE HEAVIER PCPN AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WHERE THE GREATER
FORCING(700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV) AND INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED  AS THE ND SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...NMS
SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR EAST
OF THE KEWEENAW. THUNDER WAS ALSO ONLY INDCLUDED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT THAT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES IN THE MORNING TO DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL PCPN
AMOUNTS SHOULD AGAIN BE GREATEST OVER SRN CWA. THE COMBINATION OF
THICKER CLOUDS AND NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
REINFORCED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BY A SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG) THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FIRST
WAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF IT MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. WILL TRANSITION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND POCKET OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES (700-500MB AT 6-6.5C/KM) THOUGHT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH.

BEHIND THIS WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS ARE COOLING TO 6-7C ON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH MORNING CLOUDS/RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IT WILL LEAD TO A BELOW NORMAL DAY ACROSS THE U.P. EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH COOLER VALUES EAST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAYBE REACHING 70 NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER
WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PWATS
AROUND 45 PERCENT OF NORMAL UNDER THE HIGH MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT OVER SOME OF THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE AND HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 40. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND INTO THE LOW-MID 70S OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH LAKE
BREEZES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE
WAY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE NEXT WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AFFECTS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THAT NEXT WAVE WILL PUSH A LOW EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE SLIDING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SHOW INCREASING CHANCES DURING THAT PERIOD
AND THEN DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT AND INTO THE NEXT
MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY BEHIND THIS WAVE/FRONT WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE LASTEST TREND IS FOR IT TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND BRING INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT IWD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW. AS WINDS SHIFT NE LATE
TONIGHT LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KIWD DROPPING TO IFR TUE
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID
TUE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW AND CMX BY
TUE MORNING. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THAT COULD HELP DROP CIGS TO IFR AT BOTH SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 25KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIFT TOWARD JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TUESDAY WILL SINK
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB





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