Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 130523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1223 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM EST MON FEB 12 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough and closed low in the
western U.S. this morning and a broad 500 mb trough across central
and eastern Canada down into the Great Lakes region and a ridge off
the se coast. The ridge moves into the Gulf of Mexico 00z Wed with
the trough in the western U.S. and a shortwave in the northern and
central plains. This shortwave will kick off some light snow across
the northern and eastern cwa on Tue with some help from Lake
Michigan and Lake Superior and have some low chance pops for this
possibility. Lake effect snow will slowly come to an end late this
afternoon across the west as inversion heights continue to fall. Did
lower low temperatures a bit tonight with clear skies and light
winds to start the evening off with good radiational cooling taking
place. High clouds do not come in until late tonight, so this would
allow lows to drop below the coldest guidance available. Otherwise,
no big changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM EST MON FEB 12 2018

Overall, temperatures through the extended will be on a roller
coaster as a couple of cold fronts push eastward across the region
later this week through early next week. Ahead of these fronts,
temperatures will warm nicely as return flow advects into the region
- especially on Wednesday. Precipitation chances will remain slim
through the middle of the week, but upon and after the arrival of
the first cold front later this week snow showers will return with
better chances downwind of Lake Superior.

Wednesday through Friday: A cooling trend will be observed through
this time period, with Wednesday being the warmest day of the week
as temperatures warm into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Given the ice
cover over the Great Lakes, if the synoptic-scale flow is strong
enough to hold off any lake breezes during the afternoon,
downsloping winds along across the north central may allow
temperatures to warm even more. However, if onshore flow does
develop in the afternoon, colder air from over the lake will push
onshore and allow for cooler temperatures near the lakeshore. By
Friday, the above mentioned cold front will push southeast across
the area and push temperatures back down into the teens.

Precipitation chances should hold off until the cold front arrives
early Thursday. Initially 850mb temperatures are not progged to drop
dramatically; therefore, we could see a brief bout of drizzle and
freezing drizzle before better chances for lake effect snow develop
late Thursday through Friday across the northwest to west wind snow
belts. Where the lake effect snow will impact areas near Lake
Superior will be highly dependent on ice coverage and where any
leads develop over the next few days.

Saturday through Monday: Numerous shortwaves are progged to track
across the region this weekend into early next week. Ahead of these
waves, temperatures will warm up into the 30s by the end of the
weekend, but as another cold front pushes east across the area
temperatures should drop back down next week. Precipitation chances
during this time period will be highly dependent on the track and
speed of these systems tracking across the region.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 650 PM EST MON FEB 12 2018

VFR conditions will continue. LLWS is expected at all sites tomorrow.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 236 PM EST MON FEB 12 2018

Southwest gales to 35 knots are expected late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night across central and eastern Lake Superior. These will
be the strongest winds for this forecast period with several other
periods getting up to 30 knots, but staying below gales though.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Wednesday for

  Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Wednesday for

Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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