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000
FXUS63 KMQT 220803
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE NRN STREAM...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
WAS MOVING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO JUST TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE
SRN STREAM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID AND LWR
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF NRN STREAM
WAVE...IT`S ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST HR THAT ISOLD -SHRA HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP ALONG ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS RUNNING FROM
NEAR ISLE ROYALE ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND THEN S THRU IRON COUNTY.
LIMITED COVERAGE IS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THE FACT THAT
DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH WAVE IS PASSING MOSTLY N OF UPPER MI.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WILL CARRY MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA COVERAGE
ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEALTHY CAA
AND LOW CLOUD/-FZDZ/DZ POTENTIAL. WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND
-8C...LAKE EFFECT PCPN WON`T BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
TONIGHT WHICH APPEARS ON TRACK GIVEN IFR CIGS THAT WERE OBSERVED
UPSTREAM IN NRN MN/ADJACENT ONTARIO EARLIER TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS RAISED CIGS...BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HEAD SE EVEN THOUGH SLOWED
BY MIXING OUT OF MOISTURE AT THE LEADING EDGE. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES...CLOUDS WILL MAKE A QUICKER RUN TO THE SE INTO UPPER
MI. EXAMINATION OF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES TO
800 TO 700MB...AND WITH TEMPS WITHIN THE MOISTURE DEPTH WARMER THAN
-10C...PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS IS UNLIKELY. SO...IF THERE IS ANY
PCPN...PTYPE SHOULD BE JUST -DZ/-FZDZ. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR MOISTURE DEPTH TO BE DEEPER AND CLOSER TO -10C...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF FLURRIES AS WELL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR -DZ/-FZDZ/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT THRU TUE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE AREAS WHERE UPSLOPING
OCCURS WITH A NNW WIND. WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE E...WILL
NOT MENTION ANY PCPN OVER THE FAR W.

ON TUE...IT APPEARS NOW THAT CLEARING TREND WILL BE SLOWER WITH
850MB TROF FIRMLY OVER THE FCST AREA AT 18Z. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
START THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SEE CU/STRATOCU RAPIDLY
DEVELOP. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTN...THE LAKE WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKE FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD INLAND. WITH GRADIENT
N/NW WINDS ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY/SHARPLY
COLDER DAY WITH TEMPS 20 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES COLDER IN
SOME SPOTS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WON`T GET ABOVE THE MID 30S AT BEST. OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL...TEMPS MAY RISE TO AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

PRELIMINARY LONG TERM...WILL CONCENTRATE MUCH OF THIS DISCUSSION OF
THE UPCOMING END OF THE WORK WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

THE SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 0C...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE PROFILE RESULTING IN ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW. ROADWAYS
MAY BE SPARED INITIALLY FROM ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW AS NEAR-SFC TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TEMPORARILY.

LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE DGZ BETWEEN 500
AND 600MB THROUGH THE EVENT. ONE CHANGE HAS BEEN A PUSH FOR HIGHER
PRECIP S OF THE BORDER INTO WI. STILL HAVE 0.5-0.1IN OF LIQUID
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH OVER 0.75IN E OF A LINE FROM BIG BAY
TO MNM.

WILL UPDATE HWO WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
POTENTIAL...MAINLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND ELEVATED RISK
IN THE EHWO GRAPHICS. HAVE 4 TO 7IN OF SNOW IN THE FCST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS NOTED ABOVE...IT/S A TRICKY FCST SO
EXPECT A FEW MORE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT THINKING BEFORE IT/S ALL
SAID AND DONE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SOME MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UPPER
LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED
AT KCMX...AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 10Z
LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD AND KSAW. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD LATE TUE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30KT TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM NCNTRL TO SCNTRL/SE LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR...MOSTLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING TIME PERIOD. THESE STONG WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ARRIVES. WINDS WILL FALL TO UNDER 15KT TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
LINGERING THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE
E. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...NE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WED
AFTN. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE GRADIENT SHARPENS AGAIN...EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THU. WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND TO THE N
FRI AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...THERE COULD SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS...POSSIBLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN
OVER CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE E.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD DAY OF MELTING ON MONDAY...TODAY WILL BE QUITE A
BIT DIFFERENT. LOOK FOR LITTLE ADDITIONAL MELTING AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO RISE PAST THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE 5
INCHES OR MORE SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ADDITIONAL RISES ON MANY OF THE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALTHOUGH
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF. AT THIS POINT
THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI...AND SPECIFICALLY THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...WHERE 0.50-1.00 INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS
RAIN AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FCST AS THE TIME NEARS.

SO FAR THE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT RISES HAVE BEEN
ALSTON/ALSM4/ ON THE STURGEON RIVER...ROCKLAND/RKLM4/ ON THE
ONTONAGON RIVER...CRYSTAL FALLS/CRYM4/ ON THE PAINT
RIVER...HARVEY/HRVM4/ ON THE CHOCOLAY RIVER...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
HYDE/FRDM4/ ON THE FORD RIVER /WHICH LOOKS TO BE FLUCTUATING DUE TO
ICE JAM ISSUES/.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR BANKFULL. HOWEVER...ANY RIVER THAT HAS ICE
REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN DELTA
COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS/KC
MARINE...ROLFSON
HYDROLOGY...KF