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000
FXUS63 KMQT 020523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

VERY SUBTLE FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE AREA IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A RIDGE FROM A
HIGH IN NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THAT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING IS SETUP
OVER CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. KMQT VAD THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED CLOUD
TOPS IN CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN BEING AROUND 6KFT. TEMPERATURES AT
THAT LEVEL ARE AROUND -10C TO -11C...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING IN
THE LOWER PARTS OF THE CLOUD IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE THERE HAVE BEEN
PERIODS OF DZ/FZDZ INTERMIXED WITH SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHTER. INTERESTINGLY...A POCKET OF 0.5-1C COOLER 925MB
TEMPS THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE OFFICE THIS MORNING KEEP THE PRECIP
AS ALL SNOW...BUT AS SOON AS THAT SHIFTED EAST...THE DZ/SNOW MIX
OCCURRED. THAT BOUNDARY COULD BE SEEN FAIRLY WELL ON RADAR OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SHIFTED WEST. BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND
MUNISING...AN AREA OF STRONGER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS HAS BEEN SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ARE NOW STARTING TO AFFECT THE
AREA AROUND SHOT POINT IN FAR EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY. WITH THE
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AT THE SURFACE/925/850MB BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE...EXPECT THE SOUTHWARD PUSH TO DIMINISH AND THEN PUSH
NORTH AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS COVERED BY A BROAD AREA OF MVFR/VFR
STRATUS...STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

FOR TONIGHT...THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SETUP OVER CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO DRIFT NORTH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS ARE FAIRLY MINOR...THIS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS FIELD SHIFTING NORTH LEADS TO SOME DIFFICULTY ON
THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE -SHSN/DZ/FZDZ. BUT THE GENERAL IDEA
BASED OFF THE 950-900MB FLOW IS FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PUSH THE SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THAT ARE AFFECTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESO LOW/VORTEX DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE VORTEX BEING OVER NORTHWESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO THE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...BUT THE
REGIONAL GEM DOES INDICATE ONE OVER THE EASTERN LAKE. WITH THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ON RADAR AND THE HIGHER
TOPS ON SATELLITE...THAT MAY NOT BE TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH THE
LIKELY NORTHWARD PUSH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THINK IT WILL
MAINLY INFLUENCE AREAS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA...HAVE SHOWED DIMINISHING SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

ELSEWHERE...THAT LIGHT FLOW WILL TRY TO START SHIFTING THE STRATUS
OVER WISCONSIN NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR
NORTH THIS WILL TRACK SINCE THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT COULD
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. FARTHER TO THE EAST...THERE ARE TWO ITEMS OF NOTE.
FIRST...THAT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY TURN WINDS OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW NEAR DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. 925MB-850MB WIND
FIELD IS SO VARIABLE (SOUTHWEST TO CALM TO SLIGHT WESTERLY) IN THE
MODELS DUE TO WEAK RIDGING IN THAT AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
AND OCCURRENCE IS LOW. IF WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY ENOUGH...850MB
DELTA-T VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND HAVE ADDED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY. DIDN/T
ADD ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE AS THE ASSUMPTION IS THE SHOWERS
WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD TO HAVE ICE CRYSTALS...BUT IF
IT IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED...FZDZ MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN. A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST...TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY...THERE COULD BE SOME
DRYING FROM A DRY NOTCH NORTHEAST OF THE SOO THAT WAS AIDED BY SOME
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE STRATUS AS BEEN
PERSISTENT THUS FAR AND HAVE KEPT THE CLOUD COVER UP AND RAISED
LOWS SOME.

MONDAY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
WILL BE QUIET ON MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME CLOUDS BREAKING UP
OVER THE WEST DURING THE MORNING...AS THE POCKET OF DRIER AIR FROM
WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO THE NORTH. WILL TRY TO SHOW A TREND DOWN FROM
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THAT AREA AND ALSO FOR SOME OF THE
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AREA TO BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY TOMORROW. MAIN PRECIPITATION CONCERN WILL BE
FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...LARGELY AFFECTING THE
SAME AREAS AS TONIGHT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM THE MODELS IS FOR
WINDS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
DELTA-T VALUES AROUND 15...INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 5-6KFT...AND MUCH OF
THE FORCING BELOW THE DGZ...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THERE IS
STILL SOME WHAT OF A POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ DUE TO LIMITED ICE
CRYSTALS PRESENT...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TONIGHT.
FINALLY...BROAD WAA PRECIP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TOWARDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AROUND IRONWOOD. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
AREAS THAT MAY SCATTER OUT OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LES AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BUSY
PERIOD OVERALL.

LARGE SCALE DETAILS ON THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE TO THE PACIFIC NW CONUS ON
MON...THEN TO THE NRN PLAINS STATES TUE WHILE AN ARCTIC UPPER LOW
BARRELS S INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH ON WED.
THE UPPER TROUGH STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WILL FOCUS ON THAT PERIOD LATER. SOME ENERGY
EJECTS FROM THE ORIGINAL UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUE...WHICH IS DEEPENED BY BOTH THE ADDITION OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY
FROM THE ARCTIC LOW AND BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NRN STREAM
JET...WHICH STRENGTHENS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SRN STREAM JET FROM
WED ON. THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS LARGER FUNNEL SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
IS THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /TILTED TO THE NW WITH HEIGHT/ WILL
MOVE ACROSS OR VERY NEAR THE CWA FROM LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.
AFTER SEEING SUCH EXTENSIVE MODEL DISAGREEMENT YESTERDAY...THE
LATEST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS HAVE ALL GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD EACH
OTHER...RESULTING IN GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND
DECENT /BUT LOWER/ CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 12Z/01 GFS AND 00Z/01 ECMWF ARE IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT...WITH STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT...IN DEVELOPING A SFC
TROUGH INTO A LOW AS IT MOVES INTO WRN UPPER MI AROUND 12Z WED...AND
EXITING NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 00Z /GFS/ OR 06Z /ECMWF/.
CONSIDERED THE TRACK OF THE 00Z/01 GLOBAL GEM AN OUTLIER WITH MAINLY
THE TIMING...SINCE IT WAS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY SE WITH
THE LOW TIMING/TRACK THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE FARTHER SE
TRACK WAS STILL POSSIBLE. THE 12Z/01 GLOBAL GEM IS EVEN MORE OF AN
OUTLIER...STILL ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT
BRINGS THE SFC LOW FROM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO NRN LOWER MI THEN INTO
ONTARIO...WHILE THIS IS STILL A POSSIBLE TRACK /MUCH WITH A
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN/...CONSIDERED IT
COMPLETELY AS AN OUTLIER FOR FORECAST PURPOSES.

THE MIDWEEK SETUP IS MADE COMPLICATED BY NOT ONLY BY
UNCERTAINTY...WHICH IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM...BUT ALSO BY THE FACT THAT MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT MOVING N
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM PRODUCING RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF THE CWA /MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF UPPER MI WITH
THE CURRENT FAVORED TRACK/ BEFORE WARMER AIR ABOVE 0C AT 850MB
ARRIVES WHICH TURNS PRECIP TO RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW
THE RAIN SUPPORTING TEMPS MOVING IN BETWEEN 06Z WED...AND BEING
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE CWA BY 06Z THU /BUT SHOULD NOT LAST THE WHOLE
24 HOURS IN ANY GIVEN AREA/. FAR NWRN UPPER MI WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE AT NOT SEEING ANY RAIN AS THE WARMER TEMPS MAY NOT
MAKE IT THAT FAR NW...AND AREAS IN THE FARTHER NW REGIONS OF THE
WARMER WILL SEE A SHORTER PERIOD OF RAIN COMPARED TO AREAS CLOSER TO
LAKE MICHIGAN. THEN AFTER THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH...THE
DRY SLOT WILL END THE MAJORITY OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP AND MAY TURN
PRECIP IN UPSLOPE REGIONS FROM THE WLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE DGZ WILL BE DRY /ALTHOUGH DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ARRIVES WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE DRY SLOT/. WITH
THE RAIN...2M TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO TRADITIONAL FREEZING RAIN IS NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...WITH SUB-FREEZING SOIL AND ROAD SFC TEMPS...RAIN MAY
FREEZE ON PAVED SURFACES SUCH AS UNTREATED ROAD AND SIDEWALKS. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRICKY TO TRY TO FORECAST SINCE SO MUCH DEPENDS ON
ROAD TREATMENTS AND CONDITIONS /FOR EXAMPLE...IF SNOW IS ON THE ROAD
WHILE IT IS RAINING IT WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO BE AS SLICK/.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGHER RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LAKE/UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IN THE SE WINDS OVER THE KEWEENAW AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
IN THE AREA OF PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
ENHANCEMENT FROM SE WINDS ARE HISTORICALLY HARD TO FORECAST OVER THE
KEWEENAW AS DRY AIR FROM ONTARIO CAN DISTURB THE PROCESS IF WINDS
ARE TOO MUCH OUT OF THE E AND IF SE WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE OUT OF
THE S THE FETCH IS REDUCED. MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM/ ALSO SHOWS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MI...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE TOO WARM THERE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT. A LOT OF THESE DETAILS ARE VERY TRICKY TO
FORECAST AND ARE DEPENDENT ON OTHER SHORTER TERM FEATURES...SO WILL
NOT GET QUITE AS SPECIFIC IN THE FORECAST...BUT THOSE WITH CONCERNS
RELATED TO THESE HAZARDS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NOT ABLE TO MAKE HEADLINE
DECISIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY ARE
NEEDED.

AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE
VERY QUIET...BUT JUST RELATIVELY. ESSENTIALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL STAY ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WHILE SENDING OCCASIONAL UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS. GENERALLY...AS MUCH AS CAN BE CONFIDENTIALLY STATED AT THIS
TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WLY /QUITE POSSIBLY VARYING FROM WSW
TO WNW AT TIMES/ FROM DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT
THROUGH SUN. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -15C BY 12Z THU /ACCORDING TO
THE FAVORED MODELS/...FALLING TO AROUND -20C BY 06Z FRI WHERE IT
WILL STAY /WITH SHORTER SPURTS OF -23C 850MB TEMPS/ THROUGH NEXT
SUN. THIS WILL FAVOR AREAS OF NW UPPER MI AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF
EXTREME NR UPPER MI FOR LES /WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO AT
LEAST LIKELY THU NIGHT ON /INCREASED POPS TO JUST UNDER LIKELY ON
THU FOR W WINDS SNOWBELTS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THOSE
COLDER TEMPS COME IN/. WITH THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...THE DGZ
WILL BE VERY LOW IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE INVERSION TOP IS NOT
SIGNALED TO BE THAT HIGH /4-5KFT/ THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO INTENSITY
AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE LIMITED BY THESE FACTORS.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WINDY CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY
OVER AND W NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW/ WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY. COULD EASILY SEE A LONG RUNNING LES
ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME...BUT A WARNING CURRENTLY SEEMS A BIT OF A
STRETCH. THE OTHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME IS VERY COLD TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS. LOWERED TEMPS FROM MORE BROAD LONG TERM GUIDANCE DURING
THIS PERIOD. COULD EASILY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OVER
COLDER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST MON DEC 2 2013

KIWD...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY IN SE
FLOW. LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN BY 22-23Z MON EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRES FROM THE PLAINS WILL LOWER CIGS TO 1500 FT AND
MAY REDUCE VSBY TO 3 SM.

KCMX...DOWNSLOPE ESE-SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD. ONSET OF SNOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING
PLAINS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD 04Z TUE.

KSAW...LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS...BUT THEN LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE AS
FLOW BCMS MORE VARIABLE AND THEN EVENTUALLY SE BY LATE MON MORNING.
UPSLOPE SE FLOW INTO MON EVENING WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS HAVING SPEEDS UNDER 15KTS. THEN...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
WITH THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A MARINE LAYER OVER THE LAKE AND
KEEP WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. BUT HIGHER PLATFORMS WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS. BEHIND THE
LOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35KTS. WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...FREEZING SPRAY WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF