Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 260747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /1004MB AT THE SFC/ OVER
FAR WRN ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N OF THE
MN ARROWHEAD TO JUST W OF ASHLAND WI. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT IS...WARM. CURRENT SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
OVER WRN UPPER MI TO THE MID 70S E /DUE TO THE W-E CLEARING OF
MORNING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER/ WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS RESULTING HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 OVER CENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...BUT WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS
SHOULD HELP WITH THE EXCESS WARMTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL BE
TOO DRY WITH TOO STRONG OF A CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TO RESULT IN
ANY PRECIP. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN
UPPER MI THIS EVENING WHERE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME OVER
THE NERN CWA.

24 HOURS FROM NOW...850MB TEMPS WILL BE 7-10C COOLER THAN NOW...SO
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S NW TO THE MID 70 SE UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA TO
START THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITHIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS A LITTLE POCKET OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE THAT WILL TRY TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
DRY AIR BELOW 700MB DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DULUTH AT
12Z WEDNESDAY...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. BEHIND THIS WAVE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP AND ALLOW THE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (INLAND AND TOWARDS WISCONSIN
BORDER) AFTER THE MID CLOUDS DEPART DURING THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY SINCE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MODELS ARE
AVERAGING AROUND 6-7C AND KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET CHILLY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND PWAT VALUES ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. TRENDED LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...AND EVEN HAVE SOME UPPER 30S FOR THE TRADITIONAL COLD
RAWS SITES.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...SEEMS LIKE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY OVER THE SAME AREA BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
SLIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA...BUT LIKELY MORE CONFINED TO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. WHILE THAT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THINK
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THUS WILL KEEP
POPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEHIND THAT
TROUGH...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
KCMX...ESPECIALLY AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CNTRL/E AND ESPECIALLY NE GIVEN THE HUMID AIR
MASS AND PCPN THAT HAS OCCURRED. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL THEN WORK TO CLEAR OUT THE
FOG FROM W TO E. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 15-25KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFTN AND THEN
OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO TUE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TUE NIGHT THRU THU...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI DESPITE THE HIGH MOVING
TO THE E.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS





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