National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMQT 071000
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

SOME PRECIP HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN CWA /AT LEAST ALOFT/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH OF THAT IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND PER
SFC OBS. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE CWA. A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
LAKE WINNIPEG AND IS BEARING DOWN ON A 1008MB LOW MEANDERING ACROSS
NRN MN. THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS MODELED TO MOVE TO JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AT 00Z SAT AND TO BE WELL INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z SAT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHEST QPF IN UPPER MI IS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL ONLY SHOW A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS OF QPF. MOST OF THAT PRECIP IS SET TO FALL BEFORE 21Z TODAY.

PRECIP TYPE IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED.
CURRENTLY...ABOVE FREEZING 850MB AIR IS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND AREAS W OF THERE...WHICH IS
LEADING TO UNKNOWN PRECIP OBSERVATIONS AT SITES OVER MN. AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA AT 18Z...WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SCENTRAL CWA WHILE COLDER 850MB AIR MOVES INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS SUPPORTS CHANCES OF SLEET...SNOW...RAIN AND POSSIBLE SOME
VERY MINOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WI BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
/WHERE PRECIP WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND INFREQUENT THAN UP NORTH/. AT
THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR IN AND A LITTLE ABOVE/BELOW THE DGZ WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA AT 18Z AND TO THE CENTRAL CWA AT 00Z
SAT...LEADING TO ONLY LOW LEVELS BEING MOIST WHICH WILL PROMOTE
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS /MAINLY NWRN UPPER MI/. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...FURTHER LIMITING ANY FREEZING
PRECIP...EXCEPT POSSIBLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AS SOIL AND GROUND
SFC TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD.

OVERALL...ONLY EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH ONLY VERY MINOR AMOUNTS OF FREEZING PRECIP /FREEZING
RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/.

TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO KEEP ALL PRECIP AS
SNOW...WITH ONLY AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BEING FAVORED FOR LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

850MB TEMPS DECREASE TO AROUND -13C TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW/SHORTWAVE AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL PRETTY WELL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST
LOWS BETWEEN 3F AND 13F...COLDEST W AND WARMEST SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FROM SUN INTO MON WILL
ALLOW MILDER PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE WINTER...A REBUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT ALLOWS COLDER AIR
TO SPILL BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUE INTO WED. SOME MODERATION IS
EXPECTED THU BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. ONLY WEAK
SHRTWVS ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE REGION WITH MINIMAL PCPN
EXPECTED.

SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -14C AND NRLY FLOW ACROSS SOME
GAPS IN THE ICE COVER. HOWEVER...WITH A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS AND
INCREASINGLY ACYC LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT CLEARING AND A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAX READINGS IN THE LOW AND MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER
20S SOUTH. INCREASING MID CLOUDS WITH WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHRTWV AND LOW MOVING INTO SRN MANITOBA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TO FAR WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5F TO 10F.

SUN...THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MOST OF
THE WAA PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN ONTARIO SHRTWV TO THE NORTH
OF CWA...WHERE THE DEEPER SATURATION IS MOST LIKELY. GIVEN THE SHARP
TEMP GRADIENT...THE GFS/GEM SEEMED TO SPREAD PCPN TOO FAR TOWARD THE
SOUTH. EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S...EXCEPT OVER THE EAST WHERE THE CLOUDS AND COLDER
AIR WILL PERSIST.

MON...MDLS SUGGEST ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHRTWV WILL AGAIN MOVE
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF WAS
PREFERRED WHICH KEEPS THE PCPN MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF UPPER
MI...WHERE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SATURATION IS MAXIMIZED. IF ANY
PCPN DOES DEVELOP OVER UPPER MI...IT MAY ALSO MIX WITH RAIN AS MUCH
MILDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...THE FCST MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY...USING CONSENSUS FCST FOR MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR TEMPS CLIMBING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE
FCST...ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUD COVER THINS OUT. TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
40S ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID 30S LINGERING OVER
THE EAST AND THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF PHASING
WITH NRN AND SRN STREAMS IN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER...PER GFS/GEFS/ECMWF
THAT THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THE CWA AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AS LOW LEVEL NNE WIND
INCREASE AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN TUE INTO WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING SNOW TO IWD
AND CMX FIRST AND THEN SPREADING INTO KSAW DURING THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PRECIP DEVELOPS EXPECT VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE. MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY FRI
EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL THE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS
WILL DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TITUS