Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 171932
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
332 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

RATHER HI INVRN BASE NEAR H85 AS SHOWN ON THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS WL
MAKE THE LO CLDS A BIT HARDER TO MIX OUT THIS AFTN BECAUSE EVEN WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING/LLVL DRYING FM THE NE...THE LCL IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN BLO THE INVRN BASE FOR A LONGER TIME. SO INCREASED SKY COVER
AND LOWERED DAYTIME FCST HI TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE PERSISTENT CLD COVER. ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN BASED ON SFC
REPORTS AND WHERE THE LLVL NE WIND PRESENTS A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENET. IF THE LO CLDS REMAIN RESILIENT... MAY HAVE TO LOWER
FCST HI TEMPS A BIT MORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SW. THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON THE I300K-I315K SURFACES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS COMING INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT THIS MORNING...BUT
FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTI CYCLONIC AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE IN...SO LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AT 00Z TUESDAY THE NEXT 500MB WAVE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS MN THROUGH
W ONTARIO. MID/LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A LOW 12-18Z TUESDAY OVER E MN AND THE W HALF OF THE
MQT CWA. AT THAT POINT...LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE EXPECTED AT 500MB
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AS THE 500MB SITS AND SPINS ACROSS
UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM N AND
CENTRAL MN AT 00Z TUESDAY NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LAKE MI TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER MI
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER MI STAYING ON THE N SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ON
TUESDAY AVERAGING AROUND 5F BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT...AS
FCST MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WITH
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO GO RELATIVELY GENERAL WITH
THE POPS AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP TS POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM...GIVEN
THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW MAINLY TO OUR S...AND MU CAPE VALUES OVER
THE FAR W AOB 100J/KG FAR W TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY DURING THE DAY
DOESN/T LOOK MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE...TOPPING OUT ALONG THE WI BORDER
GENERALLY AROUND 200 J/KG OR LESS /RESTRICTED TS MENTION TO CENTRAL
U.P./.

THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. OUT OF THE WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ON...THIS SHOULD
BE THE DRIEST PERIOD. WILL TRY TO SHOW A BIT MORE IN OUR
FCST...DESPITE THE PW VALUES REMAINING 80-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL
/LOWEST E/.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH GLANCES THE AREA. TS MAY RETURN ON FRIDAY. EXPECT
WAA FRIDAY TO PUSH 850MB TEMPS UP TO 15-19C. IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CAN STAY TO A MINIMUM...SFC SHOULD SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

AS FOR THE OPEN HOUSE AT THE MQT NWS ON SATURDAY 10AM-2PM
EDT...THERE IS ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES AT THIS POINT IN THE FCST MODEL
DATA TO KEEP A GENERAL BLEND OR CONSENSUS GOING. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A 500MB LOW TO THE W OF UPPER MI AT 12Z.
HOWEVER...LOCATIONS VARY FROM N MANITOBA TO THE DAKOTAS...WITH A SFC
LOW OR TROUGH EITHER JUST TO OUR W OR OVER W UPPER MI. IF THE 17/00Z
AND 06Z GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT...WINDS NEAR 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE 12Z RUN DID DIMINISH THESE STRONG WINDS...DOWN TO AROUND 10KTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DRY AIR SLOWLY ENCROACHING FM THE NE TO THE S
OF HI PRES MOVING INTO NRN LK SUP...EXPECT LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG/VFR CONSITIONS THRU THE
AFTN. MORE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE
SPREADING E FM MN WL ARRIVE OVER THE W OVERNGT. PER UPSTREAM OBS IN
MN...FCST MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE AT IWD AND THEN CMX ON MON MRNG AS
DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE OVERSPREADS THESE
SITES. ALTHOUGH THIS DEEPER MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN W OF SAW THRU
THIS TAF PERIOD...SOME FOG MAY DVLP AT THAT SITE OVERNGT. DID NOT
FCST A LOWER CONDITION ATTM WITH EXPECTATION THAT HI CLDS PUSHING E
OF THE APRCHG DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING SUFFICIENTLY TO
PREVENT FOG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE CHILLY
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.