Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 040535
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE RODCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN CANADA RESULTING IN
NNW FLOW FROM MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MS VALEY AND WRN LAKES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO NW LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LOW PRES JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED 800-600 MB FGEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF UPPER MI. SOME ISOLD
TSRA HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR CYQT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONV WAS STRONGEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FGEN AREA SLIDES TO THE SE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. SOME ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. CAA WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASED MIXING AND GUSTIER NORTH WINDS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE TONIGHT WHERE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IS STRONGEST OVER THE N CNTRL UPPER MI. AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
DROP AFTER 06Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH LOWS
ONLY TO AROUND 34...ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
GRASSY SURFACES.

WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO IN/OH
KEEPING COLD NRLY FLOW GOING INTO UPPER MI. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO LINGER WITH SATURATION NEAR -8C TO -10C LAYER TO
MINIMIZE DZ CHANCES. SO...UPSLOPE SOME SN/RA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI IN THE MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION TO
SOME DZ BY AFTERNOON AS THE 850-600 MOISTURE DEPARTS. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO 50
SOUTH EVEN AS SUNSHINE INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY GIVES WAY TO RISING
HEIGHTS THU INTO FRI AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES EAST. SFC
HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH DRY WEATHER. BLO FREEZING
TEMPS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST BENEATH RIDGE AXIS ON WED NIGHT.
ONCE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST...WEAK SFC LOW OVER CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL EXTEND A WARM FRONT TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WILL
BEGIN TO WARM AWAY FM THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH READINGS INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S INTERIOR WEST. MIN RH WILL DROP BLO 30 PCT...BUT
WINDS LOOK LIGHT. SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTN. DEEPER MIXING AND H85 TEMPS 14-
16C WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DESPITE THE WARMTH...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SFC-
H85 DWPNTS WILL BE ON THE RISE SO MIN RH SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN THU
AND LIKE THU THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

SUMMERTIME WARMTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CRASHES THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITH THE FROPA. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF TSRA WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /H7-H5 LAPSE RATES CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE
AT 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE UP TO 250 J/KG/...BUT SINCE STRONGEST PVA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DO NOT EXPECT
STRONG TSRA. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY. GUSTY NNW WINDS 20-30 MPH NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND UP TO 20
MPH INLAND. IF WATER TEMPS WERE WARMER ON LK SUPERIOR SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SWIM RISK. CURRENT WATER TEMPS AROUND 40 IN
THE NEARSHORE SO NOT AN ISSUE QUITE YET.

WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF EXTENDED /DAYTIME HIGHS 60S AND MAYBE
SLIGHTLY WARMER/ AS UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST CONUS TO
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MON INTO TUE ON HOW QUICK UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKEST WHILE GEM
IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE.
REGARDLESS...WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TOO HIGH IMPACT AS EVEN WITH
GFS IDEA BULK OF HIGHER INSTABILITY BOTH SFC AND ELEVATED REMAINS
TOO FAR SW TO BRING ANY STRONGER TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS UPR MICHIGAN.
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUE SHOWS MORE CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ATTM...BUT IF THE SLOWER IDEA WORKS OUT...DRY WEATHER WOULD HOLD
UNTIL LATE TUE AND TUE WOULD BECOME MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER ISSUE
WITH TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COLDER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT KCMX AND KSAW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS
ALSO EXPECTED AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY. KIWD WILL BE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCMX AND KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT AND INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO LESS THAN 20KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...JLB



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