Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 232326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
726 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

A 1029mb SFC high over northern Ontario and an upper ridge to the
west will keep most area dry through Sat as the high slides to the
Ontario/Quebec border and the ridge moves overhead. Expect to see
mostly elevated precipitation over the west tonight as isentropic
ascent and shortwave energy bring precip over a very dry low-mid
level layer already in place. Should see precip hitting western Lake
Superior, but only some sprinkles at best over western Upper MI.
Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 40s over the interior
central and east. Highs on Sat will be in the mid 60s to 70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

An amplified pattern but progressive pattern will give way to a more
zonal mid/upper level flow toward the middle and end of next week.
A trough/low over the nrn plains will move into the wrn Great Lakes
by Monday. A ridge will then build toward the region by Wednesday.

Saturday night through Sunday night, there is high confidence that a
band of showers to slowly progress from west to east through much of
the cwa Sunday and to the east Sun night as the mid level trough
moves from the nrn plains toward the upper MS valley. There is still
some uncertainty with the timing as the ECMWF is faster than the GFS
and especially the GEM. With strong moisture transport and PWAT
values climbing above 1.5 inches, some moderate to heavy rain will
be possible. A slight chance of TS was also mentioned, per
MUCAPE and Showalter values.

Monday into Tuesday, after a temporary lull in the pcpn with the dry
slot moving in either late sun night or Monday morning, some
additional sct light showers and some lake enhanced rain may develop
and linger into Tuesday with the deep moisture and mid level low in
the vicinity, per GFS/GEFS. However, confidence is much lower given
the model differences between the ECMWF and GFS with the
position/speed of the low/trough.

Wednesday-Friday, a mid level ridge building from the plains into
the Great Lakes is expected to bring dry weather through the rest of
the week with high temps above normal, in the mid and upper 60s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

Although some hi clds wl invade the Upr Lks to the ne of a slowly
aprchg warm fnt, a dry e veering se flow arnd hi pres moving e thru
Ontario wl result in predominant VFR conditions at the TAF sites
this fcst period.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

NE flow over Lake Superior with SFC trough over the Lower Midwest
and SFC ridge building in from Canada will support some higher wind
gusts of 20-25 knots mainly over the western half of the lake this
evening. As the Canadian high builds more over the Upper Lakes,
winds will dip below 20 kts late tonight into Saturday night.
Southerly winds will increase Sun afternoon into Sun night to 25 to
30 knots over mainly the north central and eastern part of the lake
as a low pressure trough approaches from the west.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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