Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 041954
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

GENERALLY LIGHT WNW WIND LES ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH -20C 850MB TEMPS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ARE LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING A COLDER AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -28C
AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE CONTINUED CAA AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH AT
ALL IN THE WAY OF QPF SINCE THE LAKE IS MOSTLY FROZEN OVER...BUT
MODELS ARE UNDER DOING PRECIP. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY LAKE PROCESSES...WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE COLDER AIR...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING TODAY...SO DID NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO INCLUDE
NUMEROUS/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE COVER
AND COLD AIR/SMALL SNOW FLAKE SIZE WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY IN FAVORED
WNW WIND SNOWBELTS. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE WILL SEE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK /DAYTIME HIGH TEMP WISE/ AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL SW OF THE
CWA...BUT THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FROM THE EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT WHEN A 1040MB SFC
HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN LINGERING 850MB TEMPS
OF -20C TO -25C. HAVE LOWS FROM AROUND 0F ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE TO -20 INTERIOR W. THANKFULLY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI.
THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z
FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES
RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST
COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS
CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR
WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP
WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO
WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL
HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A
MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE
BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST
BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT
CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW.

THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING.

FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER
SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WNW GALES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEPT GALE WARNING GOING FOR THOSE AREAS. AFTER
TODAY...NO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LAKE
SUPERIOR IS AROUND 94 PERCENT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
WEEK THAT WILL OPEN SOME HOLES IN THE ICE...THE SIGNIFICANT ICE
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...TITUS


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