Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 231737
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES E. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN UPPER MI MAINLY THIS MORNING.
SWLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS 7-10C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WILL MAKE
TODAY WARMER FOR SURE. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH A COUPLE 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
WARMER SPOTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY UNTIL SOME UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW LATE. DEEP MIXING AND DRY AIRMASS
OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR W. W-SW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH...BUT COOLER TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL KEEP RH VALUES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST 15-20MPH.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN FROM THE SW
TONIGHT...KEEPING MIN TEMPS WARMER IN THE 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST
IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM THE SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEFORE A DRY SLOT
MOVES IN MON EVENING AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT
WITH SOME MORE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OVERALL. KEPT
SUNDAY MORNING DRY AND BRING IN SOME POPS LATE INTO THE WEST AND
SOUTH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN BRING LIKELY POPS IN FOR MONDAY. DID
NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES EITHER.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST. MORE TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED. A SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI...SO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME POPS IN THERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GUSTY WINDS AT SAW AND ESPECIALLY CMX WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE PRES GRADENT WEAKENS BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TODAY. MARINE LAYER WILL RESTRICT STRONGEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE AS WARM AIR SLIDES OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS


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