Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 161808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
108 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

Light to at times moderate lake effect snow may make for slippery
travel this morning; however, the snow will diminish throughout the
day from the west.

A quick moving shortwave, sliding across the U.P., has helped to
steepin lapse rates and create more favorable conditions for lake
effect snow across the area, especially from near Marquette
eastward. Overall not expecting accumulations to be too impressive;
however, there could be a couple inches wherever the bands end up
sitting for a while. By mid morning and through much of the evening
hours, dry high pressure will build into the Upper Great Lakes
allowing the lake effect snow potential to end and skies to steadily
clear from the west. Highs today will be mainly in the 20s. A cold
front will approach the far western U.P. late tonight, which may
allow some very light snow to slide in near Ironwood. Again this
would be very light snow as there will be some dry air that lingers
into the overnight hours. The rest of the U.P. will remain dry.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the single digits above zero,
coldest inland west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

Most attention is on Sun through Mon when models bring a couple
rounds of widespread light to moderate snow.

For Sun, a shortwave slide across while warm air advection also
support snowfall. While the exact placement of the heaviest snow is
uncertain, amounts of 1-4" are possible across the area on Sun, most
over the W half, and least far south-central.

Another 1-2 rounds of light to moderate snow are possible late Sun
night through late Mon. Some areas near Lake Michigan may see rain
and/or freezing rain for much of the event, depending on track and
strength. While predictability is still too low to get specific on
amounts, track and exact timing, those with interest should continue
to monitor for a possible warning level event. Model guidance
suggests potential for 6+ inches in 12 hours during the day Mon. At
this time, greatest snowfall looks to be somewhere over the NW half
of Upper Michigan, with the least and possibly some freezing rain
along Lake Michigan.

Light lake effect then looks to linger into Wed in the N-NW wind
snowbelts, but nothing abnormal.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

MVFR/IFR conditions at KCMX in lake effect snow and blowing snow
should lift shortly aft 18Z as winds back more to sw. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected at each TAF site through tonight. Strengthening
low-level winds just off the sfc will lead to LLWS at the TAF
sites late this evening into early Saturday morning. A frontal
system moving into the area on Sat will bring some light snow in
Sat morning. Best chance for MVFR conditions in snow and lower
ceilings will be at KCMX.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 415 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

A few southwest gale force gusts are possible on Saturday and north
to northeast gale force gusts Monday and Monday night, otherwise
winds will be below gales through the forecast period.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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