Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261053
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA WITH RIDGING ALONG/JUST OFF THE W COAST...A TROF EXTENDING
FROM N OF HUDSON BAY TO TX AND A RIDGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
SHORTWAVE THAT PROVIDED WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW AS WELL AS LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED NE INTO
QUEBEC. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE INTO THE DAKOTAS. A
LESS DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF IS FARTHER N OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. DRYING AIR MASS...LOWERING INVERSION AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH SFC HIGH PRES THAT IS
NOW NOSING INTO WRN UPPER MI HAVE RESULTED IN A STEADY DIMINISHING
TREND/SHIFTING OF LINGERING LES THIS AFTN. IN FACT...OVER THE
W...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SCT FLURRIES REMAINING. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS ALSO DIMINISHING WITH CLR SKIES NOW BEING
NOTED AROUND KIWD. TO THE W...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES ARE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NRN MN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS TONIGHT...MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH A PROBABLE PERIOD OF CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
MANY AREAS AND THEN NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER LES THAT WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE PICTURE WED AFTN AS SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS SE TOWARD THE
UPPER LAKES.

TONIGHT...ARRIVAL OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT LINGERING LES
OFFSHORE. OVER THE E...SHIFTING LES SHOULD BE OFFSHORE NO LATER THAN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVER THE W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS PROBABLY NOT MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES CURRENTLY REMAINING...NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN INCREASING CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LES DURING THE NIGHT. AMONG THE HIGH RES
MODELS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN WHETHER SE MOVING SFC TROF WILL
SINK FAR ENOUGH S TO KEEP LES OVER THE KEWEENAW. AT THIS POINT...
BELIEVE SW FLOW ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZE WILL PUSH LES OFFSHORE...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAINTAIN SOME SCT -SHSN WORDING OVER
THE NRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A DECENT PERIOD OF
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 40-55PCT OF NORMAL...FAVORED THE
LOW END OF GUIDANCE. TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEAR...AND EXPECT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL TO
AROUND -5F. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SLOW ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS...
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN CURRENTLY FCST. COMBINED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER...COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS FALL TO -10F OR LWR IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS.

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT/WED AND WILL HAVE NO INFLUENCE
HERE AS IT PASSES WELL S OF UPPER MI. OF CONCERN IS THE FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WILL SWING SE AND EXTEND FROM JAMES BAY TO MN
BY 00Z THU. AS HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SFC TROF
MOVING OVER THE LAKE WILL SHARPEN UP...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AND INTENSIFYING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ALONG/NEAR TROF.
EXPECT THIS TROF TO REACH THE KEWEENAW DURING THE MORNING AND THE W
IN THE AFTN. TROF PROBABLY WON`T REACH NCNTRL UPPER MI UNTIL
EVENING. NE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AFTER
TROF PASSAGE WON`T BE ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT HEAVIER
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AFTER THE MAIN MDT/HVY SNOW BAND ALONG TROF
SHIFTS S. FARTHER S...SHARPER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
UPSLOPING IS EXPECTED INTO ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES...AND THIS IS
INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN LOW-LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. WIND FLOW
SUGGESTS LAKE NIPIGON PRECONDITONING WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY OVER
THE FAR W. WITH THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE WED
NIGHT...WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC
STARTING AT 20Z WED. IN GENERAL...A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS THE TROF MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE W.
ELSEWHERE...SOME -SN SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF WRN
UPPER MI IN THE AFTN. TO THE E...IT APEARS WINDS WILL BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING SOME LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FAR ERN
FCST AREA IN THE AFTN. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CONVERGENCE WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE LES OFF LAKE MI WED (LESS THAN 1 INCH).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING WX FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

BEGINNING THANKSGIVING INTO THU NGT...MODELS INDICATE THE LLVL FLOW
BACKING STEADILY AND BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SFC HI PRES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE DAY UNDER
HGT RISES/DNVA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHRTWV RDG FM THE NRN
PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE SHIFTING/DIMINISHING LES BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END COMPLETELY AT IWD LATE
IN THE AFTN AS FLOW BACKS WSW. THE LES WL BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
FAVORED SN BELTS E OF MARQUETTE WITH H85 THERMAL TROF/TEMPS AROUND
-18C MOVING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY...BUT INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING OF
INVERSION HGTS TO AROUND 3KFT AS SHOWN ON FCST SDNGS FROM INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BUILDING RDG WL LIMIT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACUUMS TO
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 2-3". THANKSGIVING WL BE QUITE CHILLY
WITH H85 THERMAL TROF PASSING OVERHEAD AND COULD FEATURE SOME RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS. CERTAINLY RECORD LOW MAX TEMP OF 18F HERE AT NWS MQT
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AS FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TEENS. EXPECT THE
LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK SUPERIOR
MODERATION.

AS THE SFC RDG AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FLOW BACKS TO
THE W-SW...LINGERING LES OVER ERN COUNTIES WL SHIFT OUT INTO LK
SUPERIOR ON THU NGT. TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MORE HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA W-E ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV STREAKING EWD TOWARD MN. SINCE BOTH THE 00Z GFS
AND NAM SHOW SN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAA/SHRTWV REACHING THE FAR W
BY 12Z FRI...WL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS IN THIS AREA
LATE THU NGT.

FRI/FRI NGT...SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV TRACKING EWD THRU MN IS PROGGED BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO BRING INCREASING MID LVL MSTR/WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE FCST
AREA ON FRI NE OF AN H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
MN AND WI. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFCS ALONG WITH MIXR
OF 3 G/KG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW POTENTIAL OFF LAKE MI OVER THE ERN CWA AS
SOME OF MODELS PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SHOW LOW-LVL WINDS BECOMING
MORE SRLY IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE...SO
WL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS/QPF IN THIS AREA. ON FRI NGT...THE GFS
AND NAM ARE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER
SHRTWV/SFC TROUGH REFLECTION TRACKING FASTER E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK
SUPERIOR ON FRI NGT...ALLOWING FOR A COLDER WRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
FRI NGT. WILL FAVOR WPC PREFERRED SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SFC LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WITH H85 TEMPS RISING ABOVE 0C
OVER THE WEST AND SCNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
SLOTTING/LOWERING POPS FM THE SW. WITH ECWMF SNDGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW LINGERING LLVL MSTR BLO THE WARMING/DRYING ARND H85...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF FREEZING DZ OVER THE SW CWA.

SAT/SAT NGT...SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA WL
STREAM E...WITH ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW STREAKING ENE THRU ONTARIO AND
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT... MORE CONSISTENT AND FAVORED 12Z ECMWF/GEM-NH MODEL
SOLNS SHOW WARM SURGE INTO THE UPR LKS WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 8-10C OVER THE SRN TIER ON SAT UNDER MID LVL DRYING. CONTINUE TO
CARRY ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SRN TIER...WHERE THE ECMWF AND
GEM-NH  MODELS SHOW MORE AGGRESSIVE MID LVL DRYING FARTHER FM THE
LOW TRACK. CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME FREEZING DZ IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK HAVE SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FREEZING RA AND RA IN ADDITION TO
SN IN CASE THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. KEPT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS. IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WL BE MINOR DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS
OF AIRMASS.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GEM-NH SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SAT NIGHT/S FRONT...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST
AS LOW AS -17C WEST BY 00Z MON. EXPECT SOME LK EFFECT TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY OVER THE NW FLOW AREAS BUT SINCE THE UPR FLOW WL REMAIN
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SFC HI PRES FM THE NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT THRU THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING LES ON
MON WITH DRY AIRMASS LINGERING INTO TUE. WARMER SW FLOW ON THE WRN
FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC HI PRES MAY DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE N ON TUE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FM THE NRN PLAINS TO BRING A
RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
AT KSAW THROUGH WED. NEXT APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
-SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD BY WED AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FALL TO IFR
LATE WED AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING. AT KCMX...WINDS MAY
RETAIN ENOUGH OVERWATER COMPONENT TO MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD. KSAW WILL FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING
AS SNOW MOVES IN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PRES GRADIENT RAPIDLY WEAKENS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DROPPING
SE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
20KT ACROSS THE LAKE. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WED AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WED NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH THE TROF SE AND TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE...EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP TO 20-30KT FROM
NW TO SE WED/WED NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT W TO E THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE ARRIVES. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
SAT...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 15-25KT FRI/FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT. BEHIND FRONT...NW WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT LATE SAT/SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ006.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ004.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ005.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON





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