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000
FXUS63 KMQT 090828
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS KEPT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS W AND N UPPER MI INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUING TO MOVE
OVERHEAD DRIER AIR WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
CONTINUE TO SEE A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE COVERAGE OF LINGERING
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEARING FROM S CENTRAL
CANADA.

INCREASED WINDS AROUND 5KTS OR GREATER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MORE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED S AND E AFTER 18Z.
850MB WINDS OFF THE 08/12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH 45-55KTS...WITH IS
RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE SMALLER SCALE MODELS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
START OUT OVER THE FAR SW AROUND 15Z...AND SLOWLY TRANSITION W TO
E...TO ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE BY 21Z. QUITE A BIT OF
SHEAR...WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE S-SSW AND 850MB WINDS NEARLY OUT
OF THE W. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP...HOWEVER THE
SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STAY N ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR RESULTING
IN EITHER CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS OR MAINLY SNOW OVER THE LAKE
/CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE/. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY WILL BE MARKED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS...MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
FCST FOR THE W HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE 08/18Z NAM INDICATED 850MB
TEMPS OF 3-5C AT 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT THE WARMEST READINGS
W...ENHANCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS FROM
IWD TO BARAGA AND MQT. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR RETURNS AND
NEAR-SFC TEMPS E OF MARQUETTE ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE POCKET OF
WARMER AIR SLIDING IN...AND SFC TEMPS E TOPPING OUT NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK IN CASE SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT
WITH VERY LIGHT AFTERNOON PRECIP FAR E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH/S STRENGTH SEEMS TO BE
WAVERING. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME PERIODS OF WARM UP FROM PACIFIC AIR
WORKING EAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CLIPPER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WARM UPS WILL GENERALLY
TRACK ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING A COUPLE
DAY PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THEM.

THE FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AT 12Z MONDAY
AND SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WITH THIS TRACK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
FORCING ARE LOCATED. THIS TRACK AND EXPECTED DRY SLOT MOVING
THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH
DOES MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
WEST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST AND KEWEENAW. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WEST WILL DEPEND ON
MIXING AND THAT MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE COOLING FROM THE ICE ON THE
WESTERN LAKE. THAT BEING SAID...DID TREND VALUES UP SEVERAL KNOTS IN
THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH MOST SHOWING HIGHS INTO THE 40S. THE GEM
(NH/REGIONAL) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THEY ARE INDICATING THROUGH
THE MORNING...THAT WOULDN/T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE VERY CONSISTENT (ONLY ABOUT A 4 DEGREE
SPREAD FROM THE 51 MEMBERS) ON HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
COLDEST TEMPS...BUT THAT IS LARGELY TIED TO IT KEEPING LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT ABOUT 120MI FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. FELT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON HIGHS
AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS. HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...WHERE THE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
DOWNSLOPING TO WARM TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50. IF KIMT/KESC
REACH 50 DEGREES...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID NOVEMBER
(17TH).

WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AND LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COLDER AND THEN WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND -21C (25C COLDER THAN MONDAY) AND THAT SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE TEENS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE COLDER HIGHS ON THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS.
DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NORTH TO
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WINDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SOME BREAKS
IN THE ICE ON LAKE SUPERIOR IT SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL PROBABLY END UP
TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING COLDER...SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER SINCE THE
FORCING WILL BE AT THE TOP OF OR ABOVE THE DGZ. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE LOWERS THE
INVERSION AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIKED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HANDLING OF THE POPS (LIKELYS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN) AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

CLEARING SKIES AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE ECMWF/GEM ARE SHOWING LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THINK THAT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS
ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SINCE THE GEM PERFORMS VERY WELL
IN RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...HAVE DROPPED LOWS A GOOD 7-15
DEGREES AND CLOSER TO IT/S VALUES. WITH THE TEMPERATURE FALLING
BELOW ZERO THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WE HAVE PUSHED OUR SUB ZERO DAYS TO 56. THINKING IT WILL
COOL OFF FAST ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ADD BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO THE SUB ZERO DAYS AND IF THAT OCCURS IT WOULD BREAK THE
RECORD OF 57 DAYS (SET IN 1962-63) AT OUR OFFICE.

WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 20S EAST AND LOWER 30S WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE
WAA...SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE CLIPPER THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS LIKE BEST PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA LIKE THE LAST TWO SYSTEMS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDER AIR
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER UPPER MI WILL SLIDE EAST LATE TONIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SW WINDS BY SUN MORNING
WITH GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS BY MIDDAY AT BOTH IWD AND SAW. NOT
EXPECTING LLWS TO BE AN ISSUE AS STRONGEST WSW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KT
BTWN 1.5-2 KFT WILL BE OCCURRING BY LATE SUN MORNING WHEN MIXING AND
GUSTS START OCCURRING AT THE SFC. WAA WILL CAUSE INCREASING MID
CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THRU PD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

A RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A LOW
OVER N BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL EXTEND A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING S-SW GUSTS NEARING 25KTS TO LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN LOW WILL FILL SLIGHTLY AS IT DIVES ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AND EXITS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY
EVENING. NW GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE IN FROM THE W TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD SINK ACROSS THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WHILE BRINGING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF