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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250529
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
129 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER NORTHWEST CANADA HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND KEPT SKIES ACROSS EASTERN/PARTS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI HAZY LOOKING. LINGERING MOISTURE OUT EAST WITH THE
EXITING TROUGH LED TO SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG OUT EAST THIS MORNING ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON STAYED
ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO MANITOBA
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO SITUATED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER UPPER MI FOR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MI
AND THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING OVER
ALBERTA WILL FORCE AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...AND ANOTHER LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ILLINOIS. WITH RETURN
FLOW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...UPPER MI WILL SEE A HEALTHY MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. PWATS GENERALLY REACH UP
TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
BRING IN CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY...SPREADING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW IN QUEBEC AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE KEPT CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW DESPITE INCOMING CLOUD
COVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12-14C. THIS PUTS UPPER MI SQUARELY
IN THE 70S...AND CLOSER TO 80 INLAND FROM THE LAKES IN AREAS THAT
SEE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THIS WEEKEND WL BRING UNSETTLED WX A AS DEEP CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE
PAC NW MOVES ACROSS SCENTRAL CANADA ON FRI/SAT AND THEN THRU THE UPR
LKS ON SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WNW FLOW ALF BTWN DEEP CLOSED LO
OVER NRN QUEBEC AND MEAN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. MUCH COOLER AIR WL
INVADE THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DIGGING SHRTWV AMPLIFIES THE QUEBEC TROF INTO ALL OF ERN
NAMERICA.

FRI NIGHT/SAT...CLOSED LO NOW OVER THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
THRU SRN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURANCE
AND ASSOCIATED STRONG DEEP LYR FORCING ARE FCST TO BE REMAIN WELL
UPSTREAM...A GOOD NUMBER OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKER
SHRTWV/AXIS OF DPVA AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVING ESEWD THRU THE UPR LKS
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON
FRI EVNG ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTER AIR/PWAT NEAR 1.5
INCH IN THE LLVL SW FLOW BTWN LOWER MSLP IN THE PLAINS AND HI PRES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...SHOWER/TS CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN
LATER FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AS INCOMING SHRTWV/BAND OF FORCING ARRIVE.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS FORCING COINCIDING WITH SOME DRYING
ALF... WITH OVERALL QPF RATHER LIMITED. WL RETAIN FLAVOR OF GOING
FCST THAT SHOWS LINGERING CHC POPS. THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE DRYING ALF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV/AHEAD OF
TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL DIMINISH LINGERING POPS W-E ON SAT AFTN. BUT
DAYTIME HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYING ON SAT AFTN MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS/TS...MAINLY OVER THE E CLOSER TO
DEPARTING MSTR AND WHERE LK BREEZE CNVGC COULD INCRS THE CHC FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS ON SAT AWAY FM LK MODERATION ARE LIKELY TO RISE AT
LEAST CLOSE TO 80 WITH SOME AFTN SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS AS HI AS
16-17C OVER THE W AT 00Z SUN.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS/SOME TS W-E
LATER SAT NGT AS CLOSED LO SHIFTING ESEWD TOWARD WRN LK SUP AND
ACCOMPANYING SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC APRCH UPR MI. THE MOST
WDSPRD SHOWERS WL OCCUR ON SUN MRNG AS UPR LO TRACKS ACRS NRN WI...
PLACING UPR MI ON THE FAVORED CYC SIDE OF THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE
AND UNDER SHARP DPVA/UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. THESE POPS WL
DIMINISH NW-SE SUN AFTN/EVNG WITH ARRIVAL DNVA/DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV DEPARTING TO THE SE THRU LOWER MI.
WITH A N FLOW DVLPG OVER THE AREA OFF THE CHILLY LK WATERS ON SUN AS
ACCOMPANYING SFC LO TRACKS INTO LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...TEMPS
OVER THE NCENTRAL WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LK ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL THRU THE 50S IN THE PRESENCE OF MORE PERSISTENT LO
CLDS. H85 TEMPS DIPPING TO 4-6C BY 12Z MON WL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S AT MANY PLACES ON SUN NGT.

MON THRU THU...THE UPR LKS WL BE UNDER A NNW FLOW ALF BTWN THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA ARND CLOSED LO IN
QUEBEC AND PERSISTENT MEAN RDG OVER THE W...RESULTING IN WELL BLO
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH H85 TEMPS AS LO AS 4-6C ON MON
MRNG AND LLVL N WINDS ADVECT LK SUP COOLED AIR ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ARND 12C BY MID WEEK...OVERALL TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BLO NORMAL. ANOTHER CONCERN ON EACH OF THE DAYS WL BE
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MAINLY DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER
LARGER SCALE CYC NNW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SHOWERS
WL BE ON TUE AND WED AS SEVERAL OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS SHOW THE
CLOSED LO IN QUEBEC DRIFTING CLOSER TO UPR MI AS A STRONGER SHRTWV
DIGS SWD THRU ONTARIO ARND THE CUTOFF AND SLOWLY MODERATING SFC-H85
TEMPS RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND PUT PROB30 INTO ALL SITES THEN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THRU SAT NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER LAKES. STRONGER N WINDS UP TO 20-25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUN INTO MON AS COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA
UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND LO PRES OVER THE SE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
TUE AND BACK TOWARD THE W WITH CLOSER APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE
PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC