Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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416
FXUS64 KFWD 202103
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
403 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will be the main theme through the work
week as ridging aloft should largely mitigate any appreciable
chances for precipitation. The upper pattern will change late in
the week, which will offer a threat for showers and thunderstorms.
After a brief respite from rain during the majority of the
weekend, additional chances for rain are in store late Sunday and
into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...
A slow moving and diffuse cold front, per early afternoon surface
analysis, will continue to sag southward through Oklahoma during
the overnight hours. While humid conditions overnight will persist
ahead of this boundary, large scale subsidence should nullify any
appreciable rain chances tonight with the approach of the cold
front. Those humid conditions coupled with light south to
southwest winds should equate to overnight lows being 10 to 15
degrees above normal, and I`ve nudged overnight low temperatures
upward for Tuesday morning. Overnight readings should fall into
the upper 50s and 60s. There may be a risk for very patchy fog
across parts of Central TX and the Brazos Valley, but surface
winds may remain strong enough such that only low level stratus
develops. With that in mind, will keep the forecast fog-free for
tonight and let the evening shift monitor trends.

Tuesday will be another warm and breezy day in advance of the
southward moving frontal boundary. Morning stratus across the
southeast, will gradually lift with mainly afternoon cumulus. Low
level moisture fields do suggest that some mid-morning to early
afternoon cumulus will be possible early in the day mainly east of
I-35. Some mid and upper level clouds may overspread northern and
northwest zones as the H5 ridge flattens a little on its`
northern flank. Conditions across northwest zones may be a tad
warmer than the rest of North and Central TX as winds may veer
towards the southwest and offer a greater degree of downsloping.
High temperatures here should climb into the low 90s with other
areas in the 80s. With regards to the potential for precipitation,
it appears unlikely at this time as 850mb temperatures warm to
near 20-22C which means a formidable cap will be in place. With
not much large scale forcing for ascent present, the threat for
showers and/or storms seems to only warrant a 10 PoP across the
Big Country and along the Red River. There may be a slightly
better chance for rain up across the Bonham and Paris areas where
850mb temperatures will be closer to 18C.

Despite the passage of the cold front across Red River zones,
temperatures Wednesday morning should still remain above seasonal
values as ample low level moisture will be in place. Low
temperatures on Wednesday morning will range between the upper 50s
along the Red River to 60s elsewhere. There may be a greater
quantity of moisture near the surface frontal boundary on
Wednesday morning and given the low dewpoint depressions and the
weakening of the surface winds, I`ll go ahead and add a mention of
patchy fog/drizzle across northeastern zones for Wednesday
morning. Wednesday should feature slightly cooler conditions due
to both the added low level moisture as well as slightly backed
southerly flow (less of a downslope component). The added moisture
will result in more areas of afternoon cumulus which may help to
keep temperatures a degree or two lower compared to previous
afternoons. More widespread cloud cover coupled with east to
northeast winds should be in place along the Red River and
afternoon high temperatures across these areas may struggle to
near 80 degrees.


&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
For Thursday---Morning temperatures on Thursday will be warm as
low level southerly flow intensifies in response to the stronger
jet across the Central Rockies. The increasing low level wind flow
will also usher in a fresh influx of Gulf air northward into
North and Central TX. With this in mind, I`ve nudged temperatures
upward by a few degrees as the low level wind and moisture fields
will support mild conditions. Breezy conditions from the overnight
hours will continue through the day as the surface pressure
gradient continues to strengthen in magnitude. Sustained wind
speeds of 15 to 20 MPH with gusts to near 30 MPH will be possible.
While Thursday is forecast to be warm, the increase in low level
moisture may be enough to keep temperatures from soaring towards
record levels. Large scale forcing should remain displaced such
that much of the area remains precipitation-free.

Things get a bit more interesting on Thursday evening into Friday
morning as a large upper trough slowly translates eastward towards
North and Central TX. Height falls in excess of 90 meters
(magnitude of course), will slowly overspread the region. South
winds will continue to transport ample low level moisture and
with large scale ascent, there will be a good chance for showers
and thunderstorms. As it stands right now, there will be a
potential for some severe weather, but there are a few caveats
that will need to be sorted out over the next several days to pin
down some of the details. The first is that forecast soundings
indicate little to no cap and with large scale forcing for ascent
in place, it`s possible that convection develops before a large
reservoir of instability can be built. In addition, deep layer
shear vectors appear to be oriented parallel to the Pacific
Front/Dryline, which would favor more of a linear mode and thus
more of a damaging wind threat. The timing of the upper trough has
changed a bit as well, with the general model consensus being
that the trough will progress a little slower into the Southern
Plains. With this trend being fairly evident in nearly all of the
guidance, I`ve elected to pull the highest PoPs back towards the
I-35 corridor Friday morning through noon, with highest PoPs
across eastern zones on Friday afternoon and evening. Refinements
to this portion of the forecast will likely be made as Thursday
and Friday approach.

Warm and breezy conditions are expected in the wake of the Pacific
front as west winds will promote ideal downsloping. High
temperatures will still climb into the 80s west of the Highway
281 corridor, with 70s elsewhere. With the downslope flow, we will
have to monitor the fire weather threat.

For the weekend and beyond----By early Saturday, rain should
taper off, with just a low potential for some lingering showers
across eastern zones. Much of the region should be beneath the dry
slot of the maturing mid-latitude cyclone which should yield
little to no threat for rain on Saturday and much of Sunday. Low
level moisture will return across the region on Sunday and into
the day on Monday ahead of the next upper trough. There will be
yet another chance for showers and storms early next week as this
feature nears our region.


24-Bain


&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and gusty winds will prevail through this evening,
and then MVFR stratus will make a partial return Tuesday morning.

South and south-southwest winds will prevail for the remainder of
the afternoon and through the evening hours at speeds of 10-15
kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. A reduction in wind speeds to 5-10
kts should occur overnight but wind speeds will return to 10-15
kts late Tuesday morning. Generally clear skies will continue
today with FEW-SCT afternoon fair-weather cumulus. MVFR stratus is
expected to return across part of the region late tonight and
Tuesday morning, and may affect KACT between 10-14Z and the
Metroplex airports between 12-15Z. With a southwest low-level jet
around 40 kts overnight, most of the stratus may remain east of
the airports, thus have placed the MVFR cigs in a TEMPO group.

JLDunn


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  86  62  82  64 /   0   5   5  10  10
Waco                60  85  63  84  64 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               59  85  59  74  58 /   0   5  10  10  10
Denton              61  87  61  81  63 /   0   5   5  10  10
McKinney            60  85  61  80  62 /   0   5   5  10  10
Dallas              64  86  63  82  64 /   0   5   5   5  10
Terrell             61  85  62  80  62 /   0   5   5   5  10
Corsicana           61  84  62  80  63 /   0   5   5   5   5
Temple              60  84  61  83  64 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       60  89  61  83  62 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/24



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