Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191220 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
720 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.AVIATION...
12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Trends in ceilings over the next 6 hours. Thereafter,
a prolonged period of VFR is expected with a return of MVFR
stratus Thursday morning.


Metroplex TAF sites---LIFR to IFR ceilings were noted this
morning as a slug of moisture surged northward with assistance
from a 30-40 knot low level jet per regional VWP. Preliminary
look at the 12 UTC FWD RAOB showed that this moisture was quite
shallow and improvements to flight categories have been noted over
the past 1-2 hours. With the onset of heating and mixing, cloud
bases should quickly rise into predominantly low MVFR by around
14-15 UTC across most terminals. As bases lift, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few reports of sprinkles/drizzle across the
area, but no impacts to aviation are expected. VFR is expected
during the early afternoon hours, but it`s possible that VFR may
occur a little earlier than reflected in the TAFs if mixing is a
bit more vigorous. This mixing will help to transfer some higher
momentum down to the surface and breezy southerly winds will
ensue. Sustained winds of around 15 knots with gusts to the 20-23
kt range will be possible. VFR with SCT to at times BKN
stratocumulus will continue through a majority of the afternoon
and into the early evening before essentially CAVU conditions
persist for much of the overnight time period. MVFR stratus should
return northward on Thursday morning as a low level jet re-
develops. The potential for IFR looks lower than this morning with
the expectation that breezy winds and subsequent nocturnal mixing
should mitigate this potential. Nevertheless, we`ll monitor model
output trends for possible inclusion of IFR in the later TAF
periods.


Waco TAF site---Brief IFR ceilings may continue over the next
hour or so at the terminal, but it appears that MVFR will be the
norm for the morning hours. VFR is expected to return this
afternoon and continue through midnight. Thereafter, MVFR cigs
will return as a low level jet develops and transports moisture
northward.

24-Bain

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/
Patchy fog will develop again this morning with some pockets of
dense fog generally west of the Interstate 35 corridor.The dense
fog should not be as extensive as it was on Tuesday morning due to
slightly stronger wind speeds, therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory
will not be needed. Any fog that does develop should quickly
dissipate after sunrise.

The upper level trough responsible for the showers and storms the
past couple of days will remain across East Texas and Louisiana
today. Weak large scale lift associated with this feature coupled
with abundant low level moisture and surface heating will result
in isolated showers across the eastern zones this afternoon. The
upper trough will finally move east of the region tonight as a
subtle upper ridge builds in from the west. Ample low level
moisture and subsidence under the ridge will result in warm,
somewhat humid and rain-free weather tonight through Thursday with
lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.

The upper ridge axis will be forced to the east Thursday night
through Friday when an upper trough approaches from the west. A
few showers and storms may develop across the northern zones as a
cold front nears the Red River Valley. The cold front should
remain north of CWA through Friday afternoon. However, storms o
developing near the cold front Thursday night have the potential
to move south into the northern zones. A similar potential for
storms will exist on Friday with the cold front remaining just
north of the region and a dryline approaching from the west. Since
most of the forcing (both large and mesoscale) will still remain
to the north and west Thursday night and Friday, and a cap will
likely be present, we will keep PoPs low.

The upper trough will translate across the Central Plains Friday
night and allow the cold front to move quickly across the region.
Lift along the cold front will be the catalyst for thunderstorms.
Models continue to indicate ample instability so there will be
some severe storm potential with hail and damaging winds being the
primary hazards. Storms will end quickly from north to south
through the day Saturday with the arrival of dry and subsident air
behind the cold front. It will also be breezy and considerably
cooler Saturday with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures
by Sunday morning will be rather cool for late April, ranging from
the middle 40s to the lower 50s.

A building upper level ridge of high pressure will result in
tranquil weather with a warming trend Sunday through early next
week. Precipitation chances should return to the region by the
middle of next week when another upper level trough approaches
from the west.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  68  83  66  83 /  10   5  10  10  10
Waco                81  67  82  66  82 /  10   5  10  10  10
Paris               80  64  81  64  80 /  10   5  10  10  20
Denton              81  66  82  65  82 /   5   0  10  10  20
McKinney            80  65  81  65  81 /  10   5  10  10  20
Dallas              82  68  84  67  83 /  10   5  10  10  10
Terrell             81  67  82  66  82 /  10   5  10  10  10
Corsicana           81  66  82  66  82 /  10   5  10   5  10
Temple              81  66  82  66  83 /  10   5  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       81  64  84  63  84 /   5   0  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/79



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