Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 280908
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
234 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. H5 QG FIELDS SHOW SOME MINOR INSTABILITY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN UINTAS TODAY AND THE BEST CAPE NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS...SO THESE WILL BE THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR TSTORM TODAY. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN STUCK IN
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE...TRYING TO FIND THE EBBS AND FLOWS IN THE
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND SMALL SHORT WAVES IS THE TRICK OF THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE NAM ON FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND ON MONDAY INCREASES AVAILABLE MOISTURE SLIGHTLY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS MORE LATE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. CAPE VALUES ARE ALSO
HIGHER ALL OVER ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AS
WELL...SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ON
MONDAY IN AREAS WHICH WILL NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE HIGH 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS
TODAY. CARRIED OVER PREVIOUS SHIFTS POP GRIDS WITH SOME VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON SHORT TERM MODELS. NO BREAK IN THE HEAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING MIN TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH SO BUMPED THOSE
DOWN BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DOG DAYS OF SUMMER HAVE ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN NORMAL WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY RECYCLING OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT OF INITIAL ACTIVITY WITH STORMS
DRIFTING OVER THE VALLEYS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS PATTERN REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG RIDGE WILL
GO THROUGH SOME TRANSITIONING AS PACIFIC ENERGY LOWERS HEIGHTS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE POPPING BACK UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS A LITTLE MORE ENERGY TO
PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN
WE SHOULD SEE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDS DRY BACK OUT AGAIN STARTING THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE FLEXING
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING BACK TO THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES NEVER VENTURE FAR FROM THE HOT CATEGORY WITH
READINGS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 19Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS FAVORED. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KTS...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS DRIFT INTO THE
VALLEYS AFTER 21Z. KASE...KTEX AND KDRO WILL SEE A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR STORMS MOVING THROUGH...WITH REMAINING TERMINAL SITES
SEEING A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS
MAY BE OBSCURED NEAR STRONGER STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING AS STORMS DISSIPATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC



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