Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 162106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
306 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

High pressure persists with zonal flow across the southwestern US.
As a weak trough passes north of us in Montana, Wyoming, and the
Dakotas on Saturday, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly and
help to surface stronger wind gusts (20 to 30 mph) across NE Utah
and NW Colorado. A couple of our forecast models are indicating some
showers across the northern mountains of NE Utah and NW Colorado,
then moving eastward toward the CO Continental Divide mountains
Saturday evening. This is persistent with our previous forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

In the wake of the passing trough, general winds will shift to
northwesterly on Sunday as high pressure begins to amplify across
the Southwest. Still looking like it will be possible for a shower
or thunderstorm to develop over the San Juans on Sunday afternoon
before high pressure shifts eastward to center over the Four
Corners. Monday through Wednesday still on track to be the hottest
days of the summer so far. Continuing the Excessive Heat Watch
beginning Monday due to this expected persistent heat wave... though
our forecast low temperatures are slightly below our criteria of
75F. Anyone headed to recreate in SE Utah should be prepared for hot
temperatures with little or no reprieve overnight.

Available moisture throughout the upcoming hot period is marginal..
PWATS around one half inch - enough to develop a few fair weather
cumulus clouds and a shower or two over the mountains, but overall
conditions will be mostly sunny during this time. Weak troughs
trekking across the Canada/US border by the end of the week may
flatten the high pressure slightly and bring a slightly reprieve on
Friday. In the grand scheme of things, looks like summer is here to
stay for awhile.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

VFR pattern remains in place in near-zonal flow over the
region. Expect an increase in cloud cover north of Interstate 70
this afternoon and tonight, although CIGS are expected to remain
above ILS breakpoints at all sites. There is a less than 10
percent chance for a light showers near KHDN and KSBS between 00Z
and 06Z this evening. Expect breezy conditions this afternoon with
gusts up to 30 kts possible.


Issued at 305 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A number of streams and creeks continue to run strong, cold and
high and should continue to do so through this weekend. The Green
River near Jensen remains near bankfull and CBRFC forecasts
indicated that high flows there will continue. Meanwhile, tunnel
closures are expected to cause the Roaring Fork in Aspen is
forecast to remain near bankfull for several days. Where water is
running high, river banks may become saturated and unstable and
lowlands along the rivers may become inundated. Remember if you
are going to raft, kayak or tube on the rivers be sure to always
wear a life jacket.


UT...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ022-027-029.



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