Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 181706
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1006 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR ERN UT/WRN CO
THIS MORNING WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A JET MAX
DROPPING OUT OF SWRN CANADA WILL PUSH SOME CLOUDS INTO NRN CO TODAY
BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. 10 AM TEMPS WERE RUNNING A FEW
DEGS WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MOST ASOS/AWOS LOCATIONS.
WILL TWEAK SKY COVER AND MAX TEMP GRIDS FOR THIS AFERNOON...BUT
THE OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FROM THE NEAR THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEGUN TO RELAX A BIT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT IN THIS REGION.  THIS IS
POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER IN THIS REGION
AND HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ALOFT AND WE ARE BEING INFLUENCED
BY MORE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST THAN ARCTIC TROUGHING. HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN AND SHOVED EASTWARD BY A SERIES OF NORTH
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. GUIDANCE...LIKE MY FORECAST...WAS UNDER-
PERFORMING YESTERDAY SO WILL START OUT NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR TODAY.
THOUGH THE INVERSION HOLDS STRONG WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT...PLENTY-O-SUNSHINE TODAY AND A LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT OVER YESTERDAY THOUGH STAY WELL BELOW
NORMAL. TONIGHT CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES WITH A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS MOISTURE IS
ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION BUT IT MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING IN
UPPER YAMPA BASIN. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS JOINED BY
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC. THE THICKER CLOUDS
LOOK TO ARRIVE IN THE EVENING SO DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
OF WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH AGAIN SHORT OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

PACIFIC ENERGY BEGINS TO UNDERCUT AMPLIFIED RIDGE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND BREAKS DOWN COMPLETELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE IS NOT VERY STRONG AND A BRIEF SHOWER MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WRN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
SPLITTING WAVE IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE STANDS A
BETTER CHANCE OF GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN...PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.
STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DYNAMICAL FORCING BRING THE POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME HIGHER VALLEY LOCATIONS. PACIFIC WAVES CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO WRN COLORADO INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER TEMPS (LOWER SNOW LEVELS) AND SNOW THAT
FAVORS THE NWRN FACING ASPECTS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG
TERM BOOSTS CONFIDENCE THAT WINTER WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO NW CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z WED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JAD



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