Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 271719
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1019 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Models were spot on this morning as snowfall began just after
midnight over the San Juans and surrounding areas. Currently, snow
continues to be reported over the San Juans, Pagosa Springs, and
the Central Mountains. Local observations are also showing wind
gusts of 50 mph at the highest elevations across the CWA. Thrown
into the mix are some lightning strikes near Gateway so an active
night to say the least! The snow that`s occurring now does look to
be cut a bit short as the jet stream shifts further to the east
which will lower lift across our area. Also, water vapor imagery
shows the deepest moisture also following the jet`s lead and is
now shifting further eastward. However, even with this occurring,
orographics and lingering moisture will still allow mountain snows
to continue. Current highlights will remain in place. Will need to
take a look at Steamboat Springs proper for some highlights as
winds become due west causing snow to start accumulating in town.

The heaviest snowfall will end around noon today but a mere six
hours later another disturbance will drop down from the northwest
giving a reinforcing shot of cold air and more snowfall. Winds at
this point will shift from the southwest to west or northwesterly
which will start favoring the central and northern mountains. This
snow will lighten shortly after midnight though showers will
continue for the highest terrain. Then, near noon Monday, another
disturbance will cause an uptick in precipitation as described
below.

Temperatures, both high and low, will be below normal for the
period as cold air continues to drop down from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

The next well-defined part of this snowstorm will occur overnight
Monday through Tuesday morning as a secondary trough moves into
the region from the NW. The Rabbit Ears to Vail Pass to Aspen corridor
will likely continue to snow during much of the time between these
systems, but snow intensity will pick up again Monday evening.
Elsewhere snow should be over by early Tuesday. Conditions look to
finally improve on Wednesday morning along the Rabbit Ears to
Aspen corridor. Below normal temperatures will persist in the wake
of the storm systems.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1015 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Snow showers will continue through tonight with mountains
remaining obscured through the period. There will be a few breaks
in the ILS cigs across the region, but duration of those holes will
be short and expect most sites will remain at or below ILS break
points through Monday morning. Near heavier snow showers,
visibility will drop to less than a mile with areas of freezing
fog also expected. The strong southwest winds will ease through
the afternoon as wings shift to a more westerly direction.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Monday for COZ002-003-008-
     014-017.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Monday for COZ012-018-019.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Tuesday for COZ004-009-010-
     013.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for COZ020>023.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Monday for UTZ023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Monday for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC



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