Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 081017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
317 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Satellite imagery, and local observations corroborate, that clouds
persist at this hour along the Continental Divide and the northern
valleys. Models are picking up on this cloud cover and all agree
that clouds will diminish from about noon onwards giving way to
mostly sunny skies. Not too sure about the mountains but the rest
of the CWA should see this result. Once this disturbance moves
out, not much to speak of as the high amplitude ridge to our west
stays in place keeping the weather dry and tranquil. Statistical
guidance suggesting a warm up day by day and though there will be
some warming up at the H7 level, inversions will likely temper
this warming. With that in mind, bumped high temps down a few
degrees each day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Very little change in the extended forecast as the highly amplified
ridge of high pressure remains in control of the western CONUS.
After a chilly night on Saturday, temperatures will remain
slightly above seasonal for the end of the weekend under mostly
sunny skies. Some weak, dry embedded shortwave disturbances in the
northwesterly flow will allow for some periods of passing high
clouds going into the new work week but no precipitation is
expected as precipitable water values across the region remain
less than a tenth of an inch. By Monday, several lower valley
locations will climb back into the low 50s as the dry, warming
trend continues.

The axis of the strong ridge could begin to weaken slightly around
the midweek point as an upper level disturbance rides over the
top of the ridge and drops down into Wyoming. Extended models are
not in agreement at this time in regards to timing with this quick
moving, dry system so will have to wait and see how things
progress over the coming days. Regardless, the west coast ridge is
still heavily prevalent and blocking any decent weathermakers
from the Pacific Northwest through the end of the model runs so
high and dry conditions will remain the norm through at least mid


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 315 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Mid level clouds over KGJT and KRIL will persist for an hour or
two after daybreak before scattering out. The mid level clouds,
that are hovering right around ILS breakpoints, at KASE and KEGE
will hang on through about 17Z before finally lifting and
scattering out themselves. Even with these clouds, VFR is expected
to remain in place. Remaining TAF sites should not have any




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