Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 100925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
225 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Pattern remains stagnant through the short term period with the
moisture blocking Rex over the Western States. The
clear...cold...long nights will impact temperatures with drier air
moving in allowing for very efficient radiational cooling. With
inversions in place temperatures will struggle to mix with nothing
aloft to help out. Biggest temperature bust on Saturday was in
the Eagle Valley and will stick close to persistence today most
areas though temperatures could swing one way or the other.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

The ridge out west will hang on through most of the upcoming week.
There will be a compact clipper type system survive a trip over
the top of the ridge and dive into the High Plains on Wednesday.
Cooler air arrives aloft in the wake of this system and it may
weaken the inversions just a tad but models have not been handling
this feature very well the past few days. A more significant
Pacific wave crashes into the ridge going into Friday.
Unfortunately there is no consistency with this feature this
morning. The best hope is the Euro which weakens but keeps this
wave intact as it swings across the Rockies Friday night. The GFS
splits the energy dropping a low down to the Baja while swinging
the northern split across the Dakotas. This second pattern is more
familiar lately so will probably need most of the week to sort
this out. Otherwise plan in dry conditions continuing.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 225 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Planning on VFR conditions dominating the 10/12Z forecast period.
The only exception will be stratus forming again in the pre-dawn
hours in the vicinity of KEGE. The localized nature of this is
small enough that satellite and webcams of little help so will
keep IFR conditions out of TAF for now and see how this morning
plays out to consider a persistence forecast.




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