Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 222316
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
516 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

H5 hand analysis at 12z had a dominant ridge over the central
CONUS with low pressure systems along both right and left coastal
states. Our CWA is squeezed between the ridge and west coast low
leaving moderately fast southwest flow aloft. So far cloud cover
is keeping much of the winds at bay in the valleys...but at
ridge tops and near showers gusty winds will continue into the
evening. Expect showers to quickly die off after sunset with loss
of heating and under subsidence behind a passing wave. Downstream
blocking over the eastern states over the next 24 to 36 hours
leaves low pressure over the northern rockies and intermountain
west. This leaves southwest flow in place across the region with
little moisture advection. The 1.5 PVU progs suggest another wave
passing through Monday afternoon during peak heating and will lead
to another round of convection over the higher terrain over the
northern mountains. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Monday
but stay below normal for this time of May.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

The downstream block will gradually break down by mid week and the
western trough will be allowed to traverse across the Rockies
Thursday. Wednesday will be a mirror of Tuesday with only isolated
afternoon convection anticipated in the afternoon. The passage of
the trough will bring an uptick to the convection Thursday which
will linger into Friday with cooler temperatures aloft aiding in
afternoon instability in northerly flow aloft. The next Pacific
system drops into the west Saturday and southerly flow return to
our CWA going into next weekend. At this time winds seem more of a
concern than precipitation. Temperatures remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 459 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Light showers will continue north and east of a K0CO-KRIL-KEEO-
KDWX line through 02Z. While this activity will result in strong
outflow winds, impacts on CIGS and VSBY are unlikely for airports
within the described areas. In fact, VFR conditions will prevail
over all of eastern Utah and western Colorado.

Meanwhile, the cool front stretching along a KHDN-KRIL-KBDG line
will continue to slide slowly east during the night. Strong and
gusty winds, flowing from the west and northwest behind the front
and southwest ahead, will diminish as the atmosphere settles with
cooling.

The pressure gradient eases over the area Monday so expect winds
will be largely terrain driven and lighter. Enough moisture and
instability lingers over the higher terrain north of the I-70
corridor to fuel scattered afternoon showers with isolated
thunderstorms. Again, this activity is not expected to directly
impact airport operations.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL


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