Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231721
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1021 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO REMOVE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND A MENTION OF MORNING FOG FROM THE BASINS. FOLLOWED
PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR A WARMING
TREND STARTING ON THE SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WAS GETTING DEFORMED BY A SPLITTING
PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INLAND. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN SPLIT WHICH DROPS ACROSS
ERN UT/WRN CO THIS EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. MET MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATED SOME FOG IN THE VERNAL AND GUNNISON AREAS
TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING...SO WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS
RETURN TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
TOPS THE RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...THEN TEMPS BEGIN A
WARMING TREND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NWLY FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES STILL PROGGED TO JUST CLIP OUR NRN
MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW
SNOW...IF THAT...EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ONCE YOU GET AWAY FROM THE
MTNS...SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NEXT FOCUS TURNS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE BAJA COAST AS IT
STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS IT DOES THIS...WHAT MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THE LOW JUST ABOUT FLATLINES CAUSING THE LOW TO OPEN UP
AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. EVEN SO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS MOISTURE GETTING WRUNG OUT OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LEAVING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR OUR CWA
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE NICE WX TO THE
REGION WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT THE WAVE WILL NOT BE ABLE
BREAK IT DOWN. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT OVER OUR CWA THUS
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS WEAK FROM ALL ASPECTS SO EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME PRECIP
BUT NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON
THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AND LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A RETURN OF
SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE FOR THE UINTAH BASIN JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE TOMORROW ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. BEST CHANCE OF FOG
IMPACT IS AT KVEL AND KGUC.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR



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