Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
332 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms today as a weak
wave moves across the area. We should see an uptick and an earlier
start to convection as a result of this wave. Models are showing
increased PWs from the south and fairly steep lapse rates to aid
storm development. The main impact is expected to be brief heavy
rain and gusty outflow winds. Shower activity will diminish this
evening as a ridge of high pressure builds west over the region.
Dry and hot conditions can be expected on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The ridge of high pressure will remain over the Great Basin
through the remainder of the workweek bringing dry and hot
conditions over the forecast area. The ridge of high pressure will
slowly shift east this weekend into early next week. This movement
will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop this weekend with
the main impacts being gusty outflow winds and lightning as the
atmosphere will be dry at the onset of convection. The coverage
and intensity of storms will increase by early next week as the
plume becomes deeper and more established over the southwestern
US. More seasonable temperatures are expected by early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Another round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected today.
Isolated activity this morning will increase to isolated/scattered
coverage after 16z across the region. Brief heavy rain may impact
CIGS/VSBY especially at our higher elevation TAF sites with gusty
outflow winds also possible. Conditions will improve after 03z
with storms diminishing.



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