Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 292239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
339 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 339 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Residual moisture, instability and a weak disturbance in northerly
flow sustained convective snow showers over the mountains during
the day. A few showers moved over the higher valleys as well, but
additional accumulations have been spotty and light.

Some of this activity will continue off and on over the northern
Colorado mountains tonight through Wednesday night bringing light
additional accumulations, mainly to the higher areas. Elsewhere,
dry conditions and partly cloudy conditions will be the rule.

Expect temperatures to remain below normal through midweek as flow
continues out of the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

The next storm system to impact the area will sweep out of the
northwest as a short wave trough and will begin to affect
northeast Utah and northwest Colorado early Thursday. From
Thursday morning through Friday evening the trough will slowly
carve out a closed low over central Utah which splits off from the
main flow and sinks southward across Arizona.

Snow showers will develop over areas north of the I-70 Corridor
Thursday morning before spreading into the central and southern
Colorado mountains during the afternoon. Light shower activity
will spread farther southward as the system continues to sink
toward Arizona on Friday before largely diminishing Friday night.
Model QPF output not all that impressive with this system so do
not anticipate significant accumulations during this period.

A drier northwest flow redevelops Saturday, though moisture
entrained across the north could generate scattered snow showers
over the Elkhead, Park and Flat Top Mountains into Sunday. A pair
of trough systems will bring additional snowfall to the region
Sunday night and Monday, and from late Monday night into Tuesday.
The first will mainly affect areas north of the I-70 Corridor
while the second stronger system should impact almost all of the
region with significant snowfall accumulations possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Scattered snow showers will continue to bring lower cigs and
visibility to the mountain TAF sites including KEGE...KASE and
KTEX. Lower clouds will also float in and out around DRO but do
expect VFR conditions there for the mid to late afternoon hours.
Once the sun sets do expect the showery nature of the
precipitation to shut off though some ILS cigs may continue to
affect some of the TAF sites overnight. At the moment fog is a
small probability but confidence too low to place in forecast.






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