Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 232138
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
338 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

A broad trough of low pressure remains over the Intermountain
West into next week bringing generally breezy, unsettled, and
cool conditions. Spokes of energy rotating through the trough from
SW to NE will drive our weather. This afternoon the first of
these spokes was lifting through NW Colorado. Scattered showers
north of I-70 will quickly end this evening. Tonight valley
inversions will allow temperatures to fall below normal and a
transient weak ridge will diminish the SW winds in the high
country.

Tuesday SW winds increase as the larger trough deepens along the
California coast. Moisture will be limited with only disorganized
forcing, so late-day showers will favor the northern-central
mountains. Overnight temperatures remain at or below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Wednesday the trough works through California and weakens as it
moves into Utah-Arizona overnight. Chances of showers increase on
Thursday as its associated cold front work through the area.
Moisture and instability are limited with only weak cold advection
aloft so did not force POPs much above guidance for now.

Friday an unsettled NW flow aloft brings another round of late day
showers and isolated thunderstorms for all but SE Utah. After a
cool Thursday-Friday a warming trend begins. The next upper low
drops in from British Columbia over the weekend backing the flow
to SW again. This trough deepens along the California coast early
next week and may pass through this forecast area on June 2nd or
so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR Conditions will prevail through Tuesday afternoon. Some
details: isolated afternoon showers mainly north of the I-70
corridor this afternoon will mostly dissipate by 03z. SW winds of
20 to 30 mph will cause some light turbulence overnight. After 18z
Tuesday, isolated showers will favor the northern and central
mountains with very low chance of TAF site impact.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JOE



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