Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 281649
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...STRADDLING
BOTH SIDES OF THE UT/CO BORDER WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIXED
IN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS A JET
STREAK CURVES BACK AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER NV. THIS STREAK IS
THE SUPPORT THAT`S CAUSING THE RAINSHOWERS. A STRONGER JET STREAK
IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF SAID LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS...RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY BUT WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING E AND PRECIP FOLLOWING
SUIT...FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WILL LOWER SO WILL DROP ERN UT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE WATCH FOR WRN COLORADO
STILL STAY IN PLACE HOWEVER WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
CONTINUING TO TRACK EWRD. THE HRRR IS AGAIN PERFORMING WELL AND
IS INDICATING BY 0700L THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING FOR ERN UT
WHILE MUCH OF WRN COLORADO...EXCEPT THE NRN MTNS...WILL BE SEEING
SOME RAINFALL.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT IR SATELLITE
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER WRN/SRN UT THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CWA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY
HIGH AND THIS MIXED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL LEND ITSELF FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HALF- INCH SIZED HAIL OR
LARGER UNDER AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS. HRRR ALSO SHOWING THIS
CONVECTION FORMING FROM ABOUT 3PM ONWARDS. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE...AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT A SIGNIFICANT SPOKE OF ENERGY DIGS INTO THE BASE OF
THE LOW ELONGATING IT SOUTH TO NORTH. THE JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH
OF THIS AREA AND THE DRY SLOT LOWERS PRECIP WATER VALUES TO 0.25
SOUTH...0.5 INCH NORTH. THIS BRINGS A DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SPOKE ROTATES NE
WITH THE ASSOCIATED 80KT JET LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS IN
THE MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT UNDER THE JET SUPPORT
WILL PRODUCE SOME MORNING SHOWERS IN THE SW SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN
SPITE OF THE DRIER AIR. THE LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS NE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. 700MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 0C MONDAY FOR
A SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR 9000 FT IN THE PARK RANGE. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BELOW TIMBERLINE WILL MELT ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

THE JET STREAM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACNW WEDNESDAY AND CARVE
OUT A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WED
EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP NORTH.
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE. BY THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN KEEPING US IN NW FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SLOWLY WARMING UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. AT
AREA AIRPORTS VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY...
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH.
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ001>003-006-007-
     009-011-013-017>022.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...EH


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