Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 172349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
549 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

As on weak trough exist the region to the east, carrying some
remnant showers with it, drier westerly flow with another weak
embedded trough will pass over the area this evening. Almost
nothing in the way of precipitation is expected from this second
trough, just some mid and hi cloud over the northern half of the
area. Monday should see dry westerly flow aloft and warmer
temperatures from abundant sunshine, followed by a cool clear

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Tuesday will bring a change to much windier conditions. A broad
trough over the Pacific Northwest will move east over the northern
Rockies and drag a cold front across the northern UT and CO
borders Tuesday afternoon and evening. The pressure gradient will
tighten dramatically as the front passes so surface winds should
be strong.

Starting Wednesday another strong trough will deepen and dive
south into the western Great Basin. From Wednesday through Friday
this trough will continue strengthening and movingly slowly east.
On Thursday the strongest jet should be over the area and a cold
front should be pushing through eastern UT and into western CO
Friday night. Also on Friday another shortwave trough is projected
to diver down the west side of the larger trough and cause this
longwave trough to split with the southern component developing
over southern CA.

The entire system will move east Saturday and Sunday with the main
trough line not reaching the Colorado and Utah border until sunset
Sunday evening.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will diminish before 06z
across eastern UT and western CO. Southwesterly winds will
increase aloft after 18z Monday. This will help to increase
upslope flow in the afternoon with gusts to 20 kts developing at
KTEX and KDRO. Drier conditions will prevail Monday, with no
precipitation anticipated across the forecast area and VFR
conditions all day long.


Issued at 304 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Strong winds at the surface and aloft will develop Tuesday through
the weekend and strong low pressure systems move through. Such
strong winds may make existing fires difficult to control. The
strongest winds are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Though the winds will be strong the humidity and fuel moisture
may remain wet enough to avoid the need for any fire weather watch
or warning products but winds along will still pose problems.




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