Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 261500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
900 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICS JUST NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER THIS
MORNING SO HAVE BACK OFF POPS THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
CONVECTION FROM HEATING SHOULD HELP POPS SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS WELL BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH LATE MORNING TRENDS. MODELS STILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES NORTH OF I-70 THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH. DEFINITE CHANGE COMING WITH COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE 2-5
INCH RANGE...WILL BE MULLING OVER IMPACTS OF THIS TO OUR CWA FOR
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MOISTURE STREAM FROM ARIZONA HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE WITH QPF...BUT
WOULD BE INTERESTING TO CHECK OUT THE PWATS ON THE 12Z MORNING
SOUNDING. THE MOISTURE MAY EXIST BUT THE LIFT HAS BEEN LACKING OR
MISSING EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY QUIET WITH NO DBZ RETURNS ON THE
RADAR AT 09Z. GRADIENT FLOW TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH. ASCENT COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
TRIGGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPE MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH FAIRLY COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN UTAH DESERTS AND NW COLORADO.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING FORECASTED
DOWN TO -8C OVER NORTHEAST UTAH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE BEST
FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO
ABOVE 7500 FEET WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED. WE
COULD SEE GREATER IMPACTS WITH THESE MODEST AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
QUICK FREEZING OF ROAD SURFACES BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY NEED
SOME HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE DAY SHIFT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL
SEASON-ENDING FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AMPLIFYING RIDGE AS IT CROSSES UTAH AND
COLORADO LATER THIS WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RISING TEMPS WILL BE THE
GENERAL WEATHER TREND.

SATURDAY...THE GFS SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH SLAMMING INTO CALIFORNIA
(HAVE NOT SEEN THIS IN QUITE A WHILE) AND PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA
IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. IF THIS PATTERN PANS OUT...EXPECT
INCREASING WIND AND CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BE NOVEMBER NEXT WEEKEND
AND THIS COULD MARK A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

SCATTERED -SHRA OR ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT MOUNTAIN TAF SITES SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SURFACE WINDS G30KTS AND MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS WRN COLORADO WITH WIND
SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH. CHECK THE LATEST TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
THIS WIND SHIFT...WHICH COINCIDES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS FROM LOW CIGS AND VIS. MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCURED.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...PF/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/PF
AVIATION...PF



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