Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 070500
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTED TO THE NE TODAY. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRAVELING FROM ENE TO WSW THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS HAVE BEEN HUGGING THE HILL BUT ARE
NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH OF THE RIDGES AND OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. PWAT OF 0.77 IN. WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS MEANS MOST
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND
WITH MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN THE NARROW RAINSHAFTS BENEATH THESE
STORMS. NOT MUCH SHEAR ALOFT SO LITTLE OR NO HAIL IS EXPECTED AND
STORM SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN VARIETY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SMALL GAP IN THE MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SO THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL PWAT ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE MUCH
LOWER SO WILL EXPECT ANY DOWNTURN TO BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN US. LATEST
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST MIDWEEK AS
THEY DID YESTERDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH AT
THE FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE
CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PUMP THIS
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO JET ALOFT WILL ALSO PERSIST...THOUGH
WEDNESDAY HAS SLIGHTLY FASTER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AT H2 TO H3 LEVELS
WHICH MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS FOR
LONGER LIVED STORMS.

EXPECT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON INITIATIATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS WHILE ALL
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. MODELS HINTING AT LESS COVERAGE MONDAY
THOUGH THE SAN JUANS AND KTEX AND KDRO STILL UNDER THE GUN FOR
STORMS AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR LAST FEW DAYS. REMAINING TAF SITES
WILL SEE SCT TO BKN SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARDS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
FROM TIME TO TIME AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE OVER TAF SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR



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