Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 041146
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT
BASIN AND REACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING LOOKS GOOD WITH CHANCE OF
PRECIP INCREASING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW DENSITY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. BEEN WATCHING CLOUD TOPS COOL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SALT LAKE
BASIN...BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A LOT OF THE MOISTURE TO GET
WRUNG OUT WHEN PASSING THE WASATCH RANGE. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH - SOMEWHERE FROM 17:1 TO 20:1 ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PASSES INCLUDING RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL ERODE FRIDAY AS BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A FEW VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ELKHEAD/GORE/PARK RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
MOST LIKELY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECTING
THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR SNOWPACK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK THE INVERSION AT THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO
INCREASE...MOSTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTN REGIONS.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT KASE WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
ATTENDANT WITH CIGS AOB 030 AFT 00Z AND KTEX WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH FOR KEGE SO LEFT THEM WITH
VCSH FOR NOW.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...BEN


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