Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 202142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
342 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.

Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

VFR conditions dominate. Isolated mainly mountain thunderstorms
should be circumnavigable. moderate to strong turbulence is the
main threat as southwest winds will gust to 30-40 mph this
afternoon and again on Saturday. Tonight strong southwest winds
will continue over higher terrain mixing into western TAF sites at
times, including KCNY KTEX. Low level wind shear will be possible
at all TAF sites through 18z Saturday when the inversions are
expected to break.



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