Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 302120
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
320 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

A DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTH BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. VERY SLOW IF EXISTENT STORM
MOTION AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER MEANS THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED HYDRO PROBLEMS BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS NOT MOVING THEY WILL REMAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS
WHICH DRAIN BETTER THAN THE DRY WASHES AT LOWER VALLEY DESERT
LOCATIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOISTURE STAYS DEEPEST OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE BUT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD ON FRI. HOWEVER IT STILL MAINLY STAYS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THE LA SALS...GRAND MESA AND WEST ELKS WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH...1.3+ PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT MIDNIGHT AT THE FOUR CORNERS...A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN EDGE OVERNIGHT.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE BETTER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING.
NIGHTTIME HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION AND AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE EVEN OVER THE FAR NORTH.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE WILL INITIALLY STRETCH FROM AZ/NM/TX TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE DETAILS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SAT...WITH THE FAR NORTH
REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE. ON SUN/SUN EVENING A DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF
IT...AND WILL ENHANCE THE DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SO EXPECT
SUN TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE WITH STORMS FINALLY SPREADING NORTH OF
THE TAVAPUTS/FLATTOPS. EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO PERSIST
BEFORE THIS WAVE FINALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE A DOWNTURN FOR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT
MONSOONAL SURGE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS AND
FROM KCNY NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUANS AND THE FOUR CORNERS VALLEYS. THERE
IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE THAT ILS BREAKPOINTS COULD BE REACHED IF A
HEAVY THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER KTEX AND KDRO THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ISO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAY POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NO MAJOR WIND THREATS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JAM



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