Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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293
FXUS65 KGJT 221633
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1033 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 417 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure will begin to build over the forecast area today,
initiating a warming trend and providing dry weather. For those
interested in viewing the Lyrid Meteor Shower tonight expect
mostly clear skies around the area with low relative humidity
allowing for some great night time photos.

Southwesterly winds are expected to increase on Sunday ahead of an
approaching storm system. These gusty southwesterly winds will
push warm air into the area reinforcing the warming trend and
lowering relative humidity values across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The current satellite water vapor image is showing high pressure
building over the Great Basin with a low pressure system
positioned over Missouri. The 0000Z ECMWF and 0600Z GFS20 have
initialized well with these synoptic scale weather features and
remain in good agreement through at least mid week.

Both models suggest that clouds will be on the increase Sunday
night as the first in a series of storm systems embedded within an
active jet stream approaches Utah and Colorado. This first system
will open the storm door to unsettled weather with cooler
temperatures and showers for the Western Slope on Monday. A bulk
of Eastern Utah is anticipated to remain dry on Monday. Again this
active weather pattern will stick around through at least mid week
maintaining seasonally mild temperatures and the possibility of
precipitation for a majority of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with mostly
sunny skies as high pressure moves overhead. Winds will be light
and terrain-driven with occassional gusts. Winds will increase
Sunday afternoon from the southwest ahead of the next weather
disturbance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 417 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A ridge of high pressure will build over the fire district today,
promoting dry weather and a warming trend. Temperatures will
continue to warm on Sunday reaching the upper 70s to low 80s in
the Grand Valley and relative humidity values will fall as
southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching storm system.

Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will struggle to get
out of the teens across much of the forecast area. These warm dry
atmospheric conditions combined with dry fuels in western
Colorado will lead to critical fire weather conditions on Sunday.
Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning for Fire Weather Zones 203, 207 and 290 in central and
southern portions of Western Colorado were fuels are being
reported as dry. For more detailed information please see the Red
Flag Warning on our web page; www.weather.gov/gjt or see
DENRFWGJT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ203-207-290.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...Larry



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