Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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756
FXUS65 KGJT 222045
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
245 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

This afternoon, moisture remains deep but has eroded somewhat.
There are two disturbances helping to enhance thunderstorms. Weak
sheared energy over the south helped storms fire there first this
early afternoon. Storms across the south and central have a slow
storm motion to the ENE at 5-10mph. These storms are showing a
tendency to hug the higher terrain and thus could produce locally
heavy rain. Some areas have saturated soils, such as along hwy 145
between Placerville and Telluride. Crested Butte area too got
over an inch of rain Thursday afternoon. The second disturbance is
tracking W-E across the north this evening. These storms are in a
drier environment and are moving faster to the east at 10 mph. So
these storms threaten more wind but less threat of heavy rain
accumulations.

The forcing from the two disturbances all seems to end around
midnight tonight with subsidence into Saturday morning. Moisture
erodes further on Saturday with a disturbance timed to pass over
the north late afternoon into the evening. So chances of localized
flooding diminish but do not come to an end.

Afternoon temperatures remain about 8 degrees above normal while
morning lows will be above normal central and south, below normal
north in the drier air.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The subtropical ridge will be centered over the Four Corners on
Sunday. This further limits available moisture, so late-day
convection will favor the southern and central high country.

Monday a Pacific trough works onshore and into the Great Basin.
The resulting SW flow helps moisture and late-day storm coverage to
increase a bit.

Tuesday the trough moves onto the High Plains and the ridge takes
full control of the region. This brings dry and warm conditions
with only isolated storms expected over the southern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Scattered thunderstorm activity continues across the forecast area
through 03z threatening all TAF sites with brief MVFR conditions
in showers. Isolated storms could continue until 06z. Otherwise
VFR conditions dominate until 18z. Saturday afternoon
thunderstorms look to favor the north including KVEL.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Joe
LONG TERM...Joe
AVIATION...Joe



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