000
FXUS65 KGJT 221950
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
150 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures and breezy conditions the next
  few afternoons will bring elevated fire weather concerns.

- Unsettled and cooler conditions arrive Thursday onward, with
  precipitation chances becoming more widespread by the weekend,
  as a series of storms move through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A few returns are showing up on radar this afternoon favoring
areas north and south of, and including, the I-70 corridor.
Can`t find any reports of precip hitting the ground but wouldn`t
be surprised for a few sprinkles to be found under the stronger
cells. A weak, cool boundary is the focus for the precip and
will remain in place through this evening before lifting
northward. As this occurs, minor perturbations will move through
the mean flow and thus, the reflection in the NBM for some very
isolated showers overnight over the northern valleys and Flat
Tops. Aside from the showers, gusty winds have materialized
across the area in response to a tightened pressure gradient
with gusts of 20 to near 40 mph being common across the CWA.
High temps today will continue their upward climb reaching about
5 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Ridging tries to build in on Tuesday and it does, kind of. Impulses
rotating around the periphery of this ridge will cause some
showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon
favoring the CO/WY border and along the Continental Divide. Like
today, clouds will form over the higher terrain and remain
fairly anchored in place. Winds should be lighter than seen
today but gusts up to 30 mph are still expected. Temperatures
remain warm with highs close to what we`ll see today, within a
degree or two.

Of note: With warm, dry, and breezy conditions in place, fire
weather concerns have increased. If fuels were deemed critical,
critical fire weather conditions would likely be in place.
These concerns will remain until later in the week when the
next shot of moisture and cooler weather arrives.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Wednesday will be the culmination of an early season warm, dry spell
with temperatures around 15 degrees over climatology for late April
for most of the region. Pacific moisture will continue to spill
across the top of the ridge anchored over the Rockies, with some
cloud cover and a scattered shower or two possible on the terrain of
the West Slope later Wednesday afternoon. This is all ahead of an
open wave coming ashore over southern California Wednesday
afternoon. Gusty southwest winds are expected on the nose of a jet
streak working northeastward over the Four Corners by  Wednesday
evening. Moisture and cloud cover will increase by Thursday with
some scattered shower activity turning up Thursday afternoon. This
trend will continue into the weekend, including more widespread
precipitation chances. Unsettled weather comes from a series of
shortwave disturbances coming ashore in the PACNW and pinwheeling
around broad cyclonic flow anchored over Canada. Temperatures
Thursday and beyond will swing back to the cool side of climatology
with afternoon highs around 10 degrees under late April
expectations. This should come as no surprise, given the cloudy and
wet pattern that works through the area late week and into the
weekend. Multiple pulses of cooler air behind each successive wave
will keep some snow showers in our mountain forecasts this weekend.
Daytime temperatures above freezing will keep net accumulations
pretty meager, but a few overnight snow showers Thursday, Friday and
Saturday will likely find an opportunity to accumulate on colder
surfaces before daybreak. Models nose a transitory ridge in Sunday
that will dry out most of the West Slope and start another warm up,
but does include some showers on the mountains Sunday afternoon in
the unstable, post-frontal environment. Deterministic model
spaghetti plots dry things out Monday with broad ridging and return
seasonal temperatures back to the mix.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A passing disturbance to our north will bring some mid level
cloud cover to terminals today and tonight. A few showers are
possible across northern Colorado, but much of this will consist
of gusty winds under virga showers aloft. Winds are expected to
remain gusty until sunset with widespread gusts of 25-35 mph
expected across the region, including a few stronger gusts near
showers and on the high terrain. Winds will settle overnight
back to the usual terrain driven speeds/directions.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT