Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 231105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER NW COLORADO. WINDS
HAVE BECOME LESS GUSTY AS COOLER AIR SPREADS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS...AND THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
DRY. ACCEPTED THE RAP13 TRENDS THAT INDICATE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE ONCE THE ACTIVITY LEAVES NW COLORADO THIS MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS...BUT VERY LITTLE PCPN BEYOND THIS AREA. COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE TROUGH SHIFTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND WINDS ALOFT VEER TO
NW. SEASONABLY STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS SET UP UNDER CLEARING SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZE DAMAGE TO
BLOOMING FRUIT TREES AND BUDDING VEGETATION. BUT FOR NOW THE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE VALLEYS AND ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THURSDAY...VERY WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT BACKS
FROM NW TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BUT VALLEY INVERSIONS
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL. 700MB SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 30KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AND DRY CONDITIONS THREATENS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF SW COLORADO WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH TO THREATEN LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED
PRONOUNCED CYCLOGENESIS OVER COLORADO AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SPRING SNOW STORM (AT LEAST FOR THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET). WRAPAROUND MOISTURE KEEPS THE PCPN
THREAT FOR NW COLORADO ONGOING INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
COOLER WEATHER (RAIN VALLEYS; MIXED PCPN MID SLOPE; SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL BE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BY 10Z WEDNESADY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENHANCE WIND GUSTS WITH
SPEEDS CLOCKING IN OVER 40 KTS IN THE VALLEYS WITH 60 KTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS CALM DOWN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...JDC



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