Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 232142
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
342 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

An upper level low pressure system continues to pass over the area
this afternoon. The visible satellite image shows this low
centered over roughly Northeastern Arizona, sliding into
Northwestern New Mexico. KGJX Doppler Radar is showing numerous
thunderstorms over Southeastern Utah and Southwestern Colorado
where a Flood Watch remains in affect through 1000 PM this
evening.

The 1200Z ECMWF and GFS20 have initialized well with the current
synoptic weather pattern and move today`s low pressure system
northeast across Colorado overnight. Westerly flow will fill in
behind the low on Wednesday and will provide a lull in convective
activity through roughly Thursday. However, afternoon
thunderstorms will remain a possibility over areas of higher
terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The ECMWF and GFS20 remain in good agreement through the forecast
period. Both models slide a trough of low pressure across the
Northern Rockies Friday night into Sunday which will drag a
boundary across our forecast area Friday night into Saturday,
spurring on another round of showers and thunderstorms. Beginning
Sunday high pressure begins to build over Utah and Colorado
ushering in a dry weather pattern through next Tuesday.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry



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