Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 172145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The cold front has accelerated across the Roan and eastern Tavaputs
Plateaus this afternoon. Short term models want to hang the front
from SE UT into the Central mountains tonight as the upper flow
begins to back ahead of the next system moving into the Pacific
NW. Clearing back to the west should spread into the northeast
zones after sunset and help shut off the bulk of the snow. Very
weak reflection of wave moving in with elevated moisture over the
cold front may keep some isolated showers going over the central
divide mountains but confidence low this occurs. Wet and slushy
roadways are likely to freeze so some travel issues persist into
the overnight hours. The main Pacific wave arrives on Tuesday and
will spread precipitation into the NE UT mountains by mid
morning. This wave will also bring along a front and another shot
of cooler air. Models could still be downplaying this a bit with
what we saw happen today especially with more instability to work
with. Again cold air with and behind the front pushes snow to
below the mountain bases with models still keying on the Gore and
Park ranges. The new runs of the NAM also run some snow down to
the Northern Elks. With energy and moisture continuing into the
evening hours may have to consider some winter highlights with
this one.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A true fall like day moves in for Wednesday behind the system with
temperatures ending up the lower side of normal. There could be
some snow showers lingering across the northern Park Range in the
cool northwest flow but for the most part mainly clear skies
should be in place. It looks to be a cold Thursday morning with
some of the coldest reading found many places this fall. The Grand
Valley and the southeast Utah valleys that have not seen
widespread freezing conditions may see this occur. Warming will be
moving to end this week and persist into early next week. High
cloudiness on Thursday will be the signal of the leading edge of
the upper ridge moving in. This ridge will break down by late
weekend as another strong system digs off the left coast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A cold front stretched northeastward from just south of KPUC to
near KSBS at 1745Z. North of the front a broad area of light to
moderate showers were occurring which had resulted in brief IFR
conditions at KDWX, but otherwise hadn`t lowered CIGS and VSBY
below VFR conditions.

The front is forecast to continue southward at roughly 12 KTS
moving to the northern face of the San Juan Mountains by
00Z/Tuesday before easing to the southern Colorado border by 06Z.
Showers will continue to trail the front but will become less
likely over TAF sites as the focus for precipitation shifts to the
mountains. Consequently, will mention showers in vicinity for TAF
sites along the I-70 corridor this afternoon, but not beyond
00Z/Tuesday. Strong west to northwest wind gusts to near 45 MPH
are possible with frontal passage based on reports from KCAG and
KEEO. Ahead of the front, expect breezy southwest winds from 15 to
20 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Once the front is through winds will diminish giving over to light
drainage flows for the most part during the late evening through
18Z/Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites during
the nighttime period.




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