Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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611
FXUS65 KGJT 210540
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1140 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Windy and mild continue through these periods. This early
afternoon, southwest winds have been in the 30s to low 40s mph in
the western valleys, 40s to mid 50s in the western mountains.
These winds will be increasing over the next 36 hours as the upper
Low over northern California tracks slowly to the northeast. Gusty
winds are expected to continue and strengthen over high exposed
terrain tonight, even mixing into a few western valley locations.
Elsewhere valleys will have shallow inversions keeping overnight
low temperatures mild. MSLP gradient and 700-600MB winds increase
on Saturday. Therefore have issued another Wind Advisory for
eastern Utah including the mountains, and spreading a bit further
into far western Colorado. Another mild night expected Saturday
night as a cold front works across Utah.

Afternoon convection has been minimal and less than forecasted.
Overall this spring the models seem to be overproducing QPF.
Therefore have lowered POPs for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
works through the forecast area, strongest forcing across the
north. But the moisture will have eroded from PW values around 0.7
inch now to around 0.3 on Sunday. So showers will be minimal. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

There will be little chance for showers across eastern Utah and
western Colorado during the remainder of the night as drier air
originating from the southwest moves overhead. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the eastern Uinta mountains
during the afternoon as the cold front associated with the deep
low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest pushes into
northeast Utah. This activity will continue into the evening.
However, there remains little chance for showers at airports
across the region and therefore, VFR conditions will prevail with
CIGS remaining above ILS breakpoints. However, as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of the front winds aloft will strengthen
from the southwest. This will result in low level wind shear at
some airports across the area until midday when daytime heating
causes winds aloft to mix with the surface layer.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ003.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ001-006-020.

UT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ023-025-028.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL



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