Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 242151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
251 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Cold and unstable air mass on the back side of exiting upper level
system will keep snow showers rolling through this evening.
Brief heavy snow occurring with a few showers, although areal and
duration impact minimal as showers are tracking east at 20 to 30
mph. Convective element diminishes by mid-evening with showers
gradually ending. Spotters reporting very light accumulations,
even over the higher elevations. With showers expected to wind
down and little impact thus far on travel, will go ahead and
cancel the winter highlights a bit early. Partial clearing
expected overnight and early Saturday before we see another round
of convective induced showers Saturday afternoon and evening that
again, drop brief, heavy showers, but result in marginal impact on
our forecast area through Saturday night. Temperatures will be
running on the cool side of normal through this weekend with a
few sub-zero readings also expected tonight in our coldest

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

General westerly flow aloft starts off this period with enough
moisture holding in place to spark a few diurnally and
orographically enhanced showers Sunday afternoon and evening.

Next system to bring a bigger impact to the area will arrive on
Monday as it dives southeast across the Great Basin and into
Western Colorado by Monday afternoon. Pacific front associated
with this system will sweep through Monday afternoon with gusty
winds expected as h7 flow increasing into the 40 to 50 kt range
along and ahead of the front. Convective showers will also be
moving through and would expect to see a sudden, but quick, impact
to travel as this moves through. System is cold enough to keep
precipitation in the form of snow. Still a few days out and timing
could change the game, so something to keep track of over the
weekend. Once this system exits, conditions dry out from mid-week
on with west to northwest flow aloft as heights slowly rise along
the west coast. Temperatures start off on the cool side but
gradually return to above normal by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1051 AM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Strong showery component to precipitation continues today and has
already resulted in periods of quickly changing conditions as
snow showers continue to work through in this unstable atmosphere.
Periods of IFR conditions are possible in heavier showers and
short term models indicate the potential for heavier snow bands to
develop over the central CO mountains this afternoon. Confidence
remains low on timing of exact location of showers will occur so
expect frequent TAF updates as satellite and radar data will be
best tools for forecast trends. More stable conditions move in
overnight and besides the potential for patchy fog much improved
conditions are expected.




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