Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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127
FXUS65 KGJT 022102
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE RADIATIVE
FORCING THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE LEVELS. LEFT SOME SHOWERS IN THE SAN JUANS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE...BUT EXPECTING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY. SUNSHINE WILL ABOUND AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING AND EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS GROUND TO THE
EAST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GREATLY INCREASE NOT JUST
THE WIND ON THURSDAY BUT ALSO WILL PICK UP A 5+ G/KG FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CAPE SHOWS AN UPTICK ON THURSDAY WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDITIONS BREEZY...SHOWERY...AND ON THE COOL
SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
THE SAN JUANS BEING FAVORED. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS/VIS WITH MTNS OBSCD. AFTER 03Z...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...MPM



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