Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241710
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1010 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CONTINUED OVER NW CO OVERNIGHT AND AND INTO
THIS MORNING. COLD ADVECTION AND NW OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS FAVORING NW CO. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE LOCAL BIG VARIATION IN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT WARNINGS STILL LOOK ON TRACK THRU THE AFTERNOON.
PARTIALLY OR FULLY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE COLD
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THEN A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING EVENT BEGINS
ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TOO WILL
FAVOR NW CO WITH EVEN MORE SNOWFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT MECHANISMS AID IN THE CHANGING OF THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN. FIRST...A WEATHER SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE CURRENTLY
REACHING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL BRING ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW
TO THE NORTHCENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
TODAY. THE SYSTEM TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL OCCURRING...SNOW
RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH SO CONTINUED WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY.

A SECOND SYSTEM RIDING THE JET STREAM IS MOVING ONSHORE WASHINGTON
STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS EAST. THIS
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL PACK SIMILAR MOISTURE TO THE STORM THIS
PAST WEEKEND...ABOVE 3.2 K/G...HOWEVER WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES SMALL...SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE QUITE RELIANT ON OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THEREFORE...AM
ANTICIPATING THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN TO RECEIVE THE
BULK OF SNOWFALL AND AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE
WITH 12+ AT THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LIFT PROVIDED ALMOST SOLELY BY OROGRAPHICS
DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS WESTERLY 7H FLOW. GENTLE LAPSE RATES WILL
INHIBIT MORE PRODUCTIVE SNOWFALL...BUT STILL EXPECT DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS TOTALING 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY IN THESE
AREAS WHICH COULD MAKE THE PASSES DIFFICULT TO TRAVERSE AT TIMES.
GIVEN EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH SPANS THE PERIOD
FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THANKSGIVING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FLAT RIDGE FORMS OVER THE AREA. PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT
MIDWEEK...RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM THE ELKHEAD RANGE TO THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTH. SNOW WILL IMPACT KRIL...KEGE...KASE...AND
KTEX BRINGING ABOUT PERIODS OF IFR AND EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBY.
ONLY ISOLATED -SHSN EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. AFTER SOME
CLEARING TONIGHT CLOUDS AND CIGS WILL LOWER AFT 15Z TUESDAY ACROSS
NW COLORADO WITH MTNS OBSCURED EAST OF A LINE FROM MEEKER TO
GUNNISON. -SN MAY LOWER VIS TO LESS THAN 3SM AND CIGS TO BLO 030
FOR KSBS KHDN KEGE KASE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-010-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL/JOE



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