Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 172057
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
257 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SHORTRANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS PERIOD ON
THE DRY SIDE. MOST OF WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...AND SHORTWAVES PASSING TO
THE NORTH. PWAT WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS AND THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THERE WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. OVER EXTREME NW CO AND NE UT...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...CUMULUS BUILDUPS WILL
POPULATE THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW OF THOSE BRIEFLY PRODUCING A
SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STRIKE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME OVER SW CO
AND SE UT AS ODILE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THRU NEW MEXICO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND START
TO MOVE INLAND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND JET STREAK WILL EJECT OUT
OF THIS TROUGH THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND PASS OVER UT. THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN UT AS
WELL. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS OVER ERN UT AND NW CO THU
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF
ODILE TO EXIT ONTO THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN SLOPE TO HAVE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PINCHED OFF AND BECOMES
CUTOFF OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA. ANOTHER RIDGE FORMS OVERHEAD
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SUBDUE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH HEATING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
LIMITED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO TRACK INLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND TAPPING
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND A DRY AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR MID
WEEK LIMITING PRECIPITATION AND HELPING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

IN GENERAL KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND WITH ONLY SOME TWEAKS
TO TIMING AND SLIGHT INCREASES OF POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z OVER THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH ABOUT A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY AT KTEX IN
A HEAVIER SHOWER. OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ROLL SOUTH ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS EVENING WITH KDRO LIKELY BEING AFFECTED
BY THESE WINDS. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CO AND SW WY BORDER
AREA THIS EVENING AS WELL. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS AFFECTING KCAG.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...CC


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