Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241633

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1033 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The shortwave trough that brought areas of heavy rain and
resulting flooding will continue moving east and out of the area
this morning. In its wake plenty of moisture and deformation aloft
will help fire scattered showers and thunderstorms generally from
the Bookcliffs and Flattops southeast. The area of deformation
will continue moving east overnight and precipitation will focus
more toward the Continental Divide and over the San Juan

On Thursday another trough will move into the Great Basin and the
southwest gradient aloft will strengthen over the area. Areal
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase and because of
the shear aloft and dynamics ahead of the trough, some stronger
storms will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The ECMWF and GFS20 remain in good agreement through the forecast
period. Both models slide a trough of low pressure across the
Northern Rockies Friday night into Sunday which will drag a
boundary across our forecast area Friday night into Saturday,
spurring on another round of showers and thunderstorms. Beginning
Sunday high pressure begins to build over Utah and Colorado
ushering in a dry weather pattern through next Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1033 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Back edge of the passing storm is moving over western Colorado
this morning keeping some low clouds and precipitation over the
high country. Areas of obscured terrain should continue to improve
through the early afternoon hours as heating pushes cloud bases
upward. This heating will also lead to isolated to scattered
storms developing over the terrain. The southwest and central
Colorado mountains will be favored for the best coverage of
showers with KASE and KTEX the most probable TAF sites to be
impacted by wx the next 24 hours. VFR should dominate the forecast
but temporary mvfr conditions are possible with passing showers
this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will also be a threat through
the early evening hours.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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