Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 300504
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1104 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
CURRENTLY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND OVER EXTREME NW CO
AND NE UT WILL WAVE NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...LEAVING NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW...IN THE 0.20
INCH RANCH. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...700 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES
WILL INCREASE SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE A COOL TONIGHT OR THU
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL EDGE UP AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MAY BECOME VISIBLE OVER NORTHEAST UT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST. A SMALLER PAC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 130W/25N GETS PULLED UP INTO
THE FAR WEST AS THE LARGER UPPER LOW IN THE NRN STREAM DIGS TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST. WHILE THIS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SHOULD STAY TO OUR
WEST...320K/325K ISENTROPIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOWS IT BRINGING
SOME MID AND LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ERN UT/WRN CO FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FRI AFTERNOON. BUT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE LOWER LAYERS DRY.

THE NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS CA ON
SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PASSING OUR AREA
TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE IN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...CONCENTRATING ON THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE UT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

INITIAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY BUT BETTER DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED AS 90 KT UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS. 700
MB TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AIR REACHES NE UT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEPS ACROSS WRN CO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER NW FLOW. 700 MB
TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING QUICKLY. BOOSTED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE
BLENDED SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF THE 700 MB TROUGH PASSAGE AND
COLDER NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY 10 OR MORE
DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.

NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ALONG THE DIVIDE ON
MONDAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL



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