Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 142112
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
412 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

...FOG AND STRATUS WITH STEADY TEMPS TONIGHT...

IMPACTS: DENSE FOG.

PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS...DEEP LAYER N-S RIDGE AXIS NOW BISECTING
LAKE MICHIGAN...570 DM LINE UP ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH DEEP
CLOSED LOWS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC. BUT OF COURSE...EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS ALL THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST...ALTHOUGH
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RANDOM THINNING TO THE CLOUDS IN SPOTS AND
EVEN A FEW PEEKS OF SUN.

AS A SIDE NOTE...A RECORD 500 MB HEIGHT FOR THIS DATE OF 571 DM
WAS OBSERVED ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z APX SOUNDING...AND CLOSE TO THE
RECORD 500 MB HEIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF DECEMBER (5730 M).
BUT...A 850 MB TEMP OF 11.35C OBSERVED ON LAST EVENINGS APX
SOUNDING IS THE WARMEST 850 MB TEMP OBSERVED IN DECEMBER FOR NRN
MICHIGAN (PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO STATS FROM ALL APX AND SSM UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS GOING BACK TO 1948).

TONIGHT...STATUS QUO. STRATUS/FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE NAME OF
THE GAME. IN FACT...GUIDANCE REVEALS A BIGGER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BETWEEN 900 MB AND 800 MB (THICKER CLOUD COVER IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ABOUT TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AND
IT IS ALSO EVIDENT ON GRB/S VAD WIND PROFILE). THIS RESULTS IN A
DEEPENING SFC BASED SATURATED LAYER AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. SO LITTLE OR
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

...RAIN LOOKING LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TURNING COOLER
MID-WEEK SOME SNOW EXPECTED...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOCALLY DENSE FOG THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT VERY ANOMALOUSLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH SOME CHANGES HEADING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRIVER BEHIND SUCH IS A RATHER AGGRESSIVE
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO OUR WEST...THE LIKES OF WHICH WILL DRIVE A
PAIR OF RATHER SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH OUR AREA TO START THE
WORK WEEK. LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BRING A ROUND OF WET
WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DECEMBER WEATHER (AT
LEAST BRIEFLY) INTO MID WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: ADDRESSING RAIN CONCERNS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND TRANSITION TO SNOW
THEREAFTER...ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION.

DETAILS: SIMPLY MORE OF THE SAME MUCH OF MONDAY WITH A SLOWLY
DEEPENING MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THIS...STILL APPEARS
A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL DISCONNECT WILL EXIST BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SUPPORTING MORE OF A DRIZZLE/LOW CLOUD SCENARIO
THAN BONA FIDE MEASURABLE RAIN. THAT ALL CHANGES HEADING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF RATHER VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM...WITH FORCED
ASCENT COMPLETING THE SATURATION PROCESS AS PWAT VALUES SURGE TO
NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME RATHER
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...LASTING INTO THE START OF TUESDAY. WHILE
SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES BEGIN TO DEPART LATER TUESDAY...NORTHERN
STREAM DYNAMICS BEGIN TO RAMP UP VIA STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST LAKES. DEEPENING COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO FORCE
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY...WITH ALL
AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW BY LATER TUESDAY EVENING. STARTING
TO LOOK LIKE MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WILL PUSH INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TIED TO INCREASING
DEFORMATION FORCING LAYING OUT FOR AREAS IN THE STRAITS AND UPPER
MICHIGAN. LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ONLY HELP THE CAUSE AS INSTABILITY
RAMPS UP VIA STEADILY COOLING LOW LEVELS. NOT LOOKING LIKE A
PARTICULAR BIG SNOW EVENT...BUT COULD EASILY SEE A COUPLE INCHES FOR
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LESS AMOUNTS FOR
NORTHERN LOWER...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TARGETING THE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. WNW-NW FLOW LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE AREA. SYNOPTIC/LAKE AUGMENTED
SURFACE TROUGHING SHOULD HELP WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL BE WELL
PLACED WITHIN THE DGZ...ALTHOUGH LIMITED INVERSION LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. ALL TOLD...COULD SEE
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES IN FAVORED AREAS. WILL KICK AROUND THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST INTRODUCING THIS SNOW POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. A MORE
NORTHERN SOLUTION COULD BRING SOME MINOR SNOWFALL WITH MOISTURE A
BIT LACKING. A SOUTHERN SOLUTION WILL LEAVE US DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY.
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW...KEEPING AN EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY. PER SATELLITE DATA...THERE ARE A
FEW HOLES/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OUT THERE THAT MAY BRING SOME
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS/BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. BUT TIMING
THOSE RANDOM IMPROVEMENTS IS A TALL ORDER. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

WINDS...LIGHT (5 KNOTS OR LESS) AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A BIT STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS GETTING UP CLOSE
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS POINT. WINDS TURN BACK INTO THE N/NW ON TUESDAY WITH
GUSTIER WINDS. MARINE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT THAT POINT...BUT
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM



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