Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 130359

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1159 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Issued at 1004 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Not much change to that which was inherited, with mostly clear
skies expected overnight. Combination of those clear skies and
light winds will result in a quick downward spiral of
temperatures, with the traditional colder interior regions
looking to easily drop into the 40s by morning.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...A pretty quiet close to the weekend...

High impact weather potential...none.

Low pressure over Quebec continues to move away from northern MI.
Last of the associated wraparound moisture, combined with diurnal
heating, has kept some showers going. These are all south of M-72
and east of US-131 at this hour, and are on tap to depart over the
next few hours. It is fortunate that earlier intentions to removed
thunder were not acted on, as a few thunderstorms have indeed
managed to fire. Meanwhile, north of M-68, skies are well on there
way to completely clear, as drier air and deeper mixing move in.
(Surface dew points are now in the 40s in parts of that area.)

That drier air will swoop in across the rest of northern MI this
evening. With loss of heating, cu field and leftover showers will
fall apart. No precip expected after 8pm, and skies will clear.
Some residual mid-clouds could drift into western and especially
northern sections tonight. Otherwise an excellent night for
radiational cooling, as guidance temps are already suitably cool.
Will lower them a bit further though. Much of the interior will
drop into the 40s, and a few stray upper 30s are not out of the
question. Also could be some fog resulting just about anywhere in
northern MI tonight.

Mainly quiet for Sunday, as high pressure moves directly over
lower MI during the day. However, background light synoptic sw
flow will draw added moisture from northern Lake MI into eastern
upper MI. As more abrupt lake breeze boundaries develop and move
inland, they may encounter a weakly unstable airmass in the
afternoon (MlCapes values up to 300j/kg). Will add a slight chance
of afternoon showers in the interior of eastern upper MI,
centered on Trout Lk/Rudyard.

Max temps mainly in the mid 70s to around 80f.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...Small Precip Chances...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunder Monday afternoon?

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure continues east Sunday
night getting N Michigan into the return just before the next sfc
low, and 500 mb shortwave trough. As the troughs move through the
forecast area during Monday afternoon, there is a small chance for
showers and thunderstorms, and mainly east of I-75. High pressure
then builds back into the region for Tuesday.

Primary Forecast concerns...SREF is the most gung ho with the
showers and thunderstorm idea for Monday, with the highest
percentages from the models. However, when I looked a the SREF
plumes, The MLCAPEs are below 500 J/KG and more like 300J/kg. So
feel confidence level in the models is low for this. However, with
the moisture max in the 700-500 mb layer moving through the region
during the afternoon, can`t completely discount it.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...At or Below normal Temperatures?...

High Impact Weather Potential...Thunderstorms possible
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Extended (Tuesday night through Saturday)...So the trend yesterday
was for At or above normal temperatures. Today, it looks like At or
below normal temperatures, especially For Thursday and after. A lot
of this stems from a flat, almost zonal pattern over the Upper Great
Lakes that starts Wednesday afternoon as the next system moves
slowly through the forecast area. The pattern will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region as the models show different timings for
the shortwaves through the flow. The models do show some drying for
Friday, but a return for showers on Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1157 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Clear skies gives way to a few high based cumulus later this
morning and afternoon. No vis restrictions currently anticipated,
although will continue to monitor for some possible shallow fog
during the early morning hours. Light winds through the duration,
with some local lake breeze development expected this afternoon.


Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Northwest winds diminishing into tonight, as low pressure over
Quebec moves further away. Anticipate canceling small craft
advisories shortly. High pressure over the upper MS Valley will
provide much quieter wx tonight into Sunday.




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