Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Issued at 1132 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Very few changes to the current forecast with high pressure
building overhead with deep layer dry air in place. Did adjust
high temperatures down slightly given the 12z soundings, with most
areas reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s /a bit cooler near
the coast/. Winds have a been a bit gustier than expected this
morning. Forecast soundings show winds coming down a bit this
afternoon as lighter wind flow aloft builds into Northern

Elevated fire danger continues, although slightly cooler
temperatures today will result in afternoon RH values not being
quite as low as yesterday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Weak moisture-starved cool front has pushed southeast of our CWA
early this morning. Area of mid cloud associated with the front has
followed suite...leaving mainly clear skies across our entire CWA.
Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column are building back
into the Wrn Great Lakes region behind this front...reinforcing our
rather persistently hostile environment toward any chance of precip
or even low clouds.

High pressure center will build south out of Ontario into Michigan
today and tonight...with virtually no moisture at any level to
produce much in the way of cloud cover. Expect a sunny day across
the Northwoods. Temps will not be quite as warm as yesterday thanks
to weak low level CAA behind the front. Afternoon highs will peak
mainly in the lower 70s...cooler near the lakeshores. Clear skies
and light/calm winds tonight will allow temps to cool into the upper
30s to mid 40s. At this not expect any frost development
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

...Warm temperatures over the next several days...

Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the region under mostly
clear skies Monday into Monday night. It will be very warm Monday as
well with highs pushing well into the 70s to the lower 80s. Humidity
levels will remain rather low though...and southerly winds will
become a bit gusty...leading to the continuance of the fire weather
watch for Monday. The ridge breaks down Tuesday allowing for a large
scale pattern change to take shape across the western Great Lakes.
This will feature higher humidity levels and decent chances for
rounds of showers and thunderstorms as pieces of energy eject out of
a long wave trough centered across the western states. There still
could be some strong to severe storms Thursday depending upon how
much heating we can generate as it appears that there will be a
surface warm front lurking somewhere in the vicinity. Any rainfall
will be welcomed as we could definitely use the moisture.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for late May.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions will continue at all Nrn Lwr Michigan TAF sites
thru Monday morning. Light winds will again lend to lake breeze
development by afternoon.


Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Monday night as
high pressure remains in control of the weather across the Great
Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Monday night as well.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for MIZ016>019-021>024-027>030-033>036.



LONG TERM...Sullivan
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