Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 300600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...COLD!...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST AN ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW...AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS WORKING INTO THE EAST
COAST. BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BURIED UNDERNEATH...SEEN ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
ACROSS FAR SRN CALIFORNIA/AZ AND PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SW
CONUS. IN BETWEEN...ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD RESIDES. IN NRN MICHIGAN SPECIFICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
AND BECOMING COLDER. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE ONGOING WITH H8
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS. THE BETTER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...VEERING MORE NNW WITH TIME.
RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) AROUND
4000-4500 FEET ARE LIKELY BEING OFFSET IN PART DUE TO GOOD LIFT
WITHIN THE DGZ/OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN DECENT SNOWFALL
WITHIN THE BANDS. OF COURSE THE GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO PERIODICALLY
BLOWING AROUND THE SNOW AND HELPING DECREASE THE VISIBILITY. PRETTY
WINTRY AND NASTY MAINLY WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND WHERE
APPRECIABLE SNOWS FELL YESTERDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL AND WINDS...POORER CONDITIONS WEST
AND SOUTH OF GTV BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER FAST...WITH SOME
SHEARED OUT VORTICITY STRETCHING DOWN THE NW FLOW INTO ND/MN...AND A
BETTER WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. PWATS
UPSTREAM ARE AROUND 0.25".

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER...TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ALONG M-55.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

COLD AND GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOOSER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ARRIVES...WHILE CORE OF HIGHER PRESSURE SINKS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. IT`LL BE QUITE CHILLY TO START THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND WIND CHILLS 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. NOT AS COLD WEST AND
SOUTH OF GTV BAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...BUT CERTAINLY
THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN
PERIODICALLY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL ALSO BE BACKING MORE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
ADVANCING NRN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WAVE. DECAY OF MOISTURE FLUX AND
A DRYING BL...WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF LAKE EFFECT. SUPER
SUFFICIENT 925MB INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
FLURRIES INTO THE NIGHT...AND MORE SCATTERED/LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD BE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NW LOWER AS THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...BRINGS A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW...ENHANCED BY
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY. THE SNOWS MAY POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
STRAITS/DRUMMOND ISLAND...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST A SHADE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST.

MOST LIKELY NO MORE THAN AN INCH...EVEN ACROSS NW LOWER WITH LAKE
HELP.

LOWS MAINLY 10-20F WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIFFICULT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING ACROSS NE LOWER AND TO A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME EASTERN
UPPER (WEST FLOW). TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRASHING WHEN THIS OCCURS.
CAN FORESEE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EASILY ATTAINABLE IN THESE
AREAS...WITH CLOUDY AREAS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...GENERALLY QUIET BUT COLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD...

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH NEARLY
ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGING FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE REMAINING NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT (WHICH WILL BE
BACKING INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY)...ESPECIALLY WITH
VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING IN (MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLS FROM ABOUT 30
PERCENT TO A PALTRY 15 PERCENT). ELSEWHERE...BRIGHT SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BRISK (ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING) AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EASTERN
UPPER TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...KIND OF A TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST AND AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGIN
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW HOUR
WINDOW IN THE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF PRETTY WELL
BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH EASTERN UPPER TO THE MILDER SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...THE ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS) WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
LAKE EFFECT FOLLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COLD TO START WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUPER SUNDAY...WINDS VEER FROM NORTH NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH. IT REMAINS RATHER DRY
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW NORTH TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE BASICALLY COLD AND DRY CONDS ACRS MUCH OF NRN MI MONDAY...
WHILE SOME LAKE INDUCED SNOWS LINGER OVER THE WRN LAKES AS 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN -12C AND SFC-850MB WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY.
WILL MENTION A CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TUES AND
WED...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE EXITING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECTS WILL AGAIN INFLUENCE
THE WRN LAKES THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PLAINS
SYSTEM...AS SFC-850MB WINDS TURN NW AND 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
-20C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW...

GUSTY NW WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO RIP DOWN AND ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
FOR MAINLY TVC AND MBL. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PLN MORE INFREQUENTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN PREVAILING MVFR ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT A CORE
OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR RIPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WILL
BRING A POSSIBLE CLEARING MVFR CLOUD DECK TO PLN/APN BY DAYBREAK.
FEEL THE NEED TO HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS LONGER...INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM DAYBREAK INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND KEEP
VSBYS DOWN INTO MAINLY MVFR RANGES...BUT CERTAINLY SOME SPORADIC
IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON...COMING INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE
WEST AND LIGHT HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL SHOVE MVFR
LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES BACK INTO MUCH OF NW LOWER. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...BRING A TOUCH OF LIGHT SYSTEM
SNOW...MAINLY PLN/APN. COULD SEE SOME VSBYS COME DOWN WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MIZ020-025-026-
     031-032.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...SMD



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