Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241129
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
629 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS THE RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...WET AND DREARY TURNING COLDER AND SNOWY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX LIFTING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. POCKET OF WAA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...IS AIDING IN MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
-DIVQ OVER NRN MICHIGAN. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN...BUT THE BACK EDGE IS WORKING TOWARD THE SRN EDGE OF THE CWA
ALONG THE M-55 CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE...WHILE ANOTHER IS SEEN EXTENDING WEST OF THE LOW...THROUGH
THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND CONTAINING THE REAL COLD AIR. THIS
SECONDARY FRONT IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS...ENHANCED
ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE FRONT BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL MILD IN THE SOUPY AIR IN NRN MICHIGAN...IN
THE 40S. SNOWMELT WAS RAPID WITH THE WARM AIR AND RAIN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK UP THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
THROUGH EASTERN UPPER THIS MORNING...WITH ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING EXITING AND RAINFALL WANING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ALONG THE INITIAL SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH LAYS OUT ACROSS US
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS
INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREADS ANOTHER POCKET OF
DEEP LAYER -DIVQ AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE AROUND THE MANISTEE AREA WHERE THE MUCH
COLDER AIR STARTS TO POWER ITSELF IN...AND THE SNOW DEVELOPS. THIS
COLD AIR THEN BLOWS INTO ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOSENS BACK UP AGAIN WITH
THE DEPARTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE BETTER -DIVQ. WINDS SETTLE INTO
MORE OF A TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FASHION BY LATE AT NIGHT WITH H8
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT -10C TO -12C. DEEP MOISTURE IS AROUND FOR THE
ENTIRE NIGHT...WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 5-6KFT. WINDS DO NOT
WAVER ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT...ALL OF WHICH LEAD TO EXCELLENT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE SNOW TOTALS (IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...BUT THIS IS ALSO
WHEN WE COULD COUNTERACT THAT...WITH SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. ALL-IN-ALL...CURRENT FORECAST OF 4-6" IN NW
LOWER AND 2-4" ELSEWHERE LOOKS GOOD.

FINALLY...STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SNEAKY STRONG WINDS FOR
AREAS NEAR SAGINAW BAY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHTFALL. THE CORE
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE IT WAS
EXPECTED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...FOLKS HERE...DON`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME 30-35 MPH GUSTS.

TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HANG OUT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...MILDER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO
TEMPORARILY DISLODGE THE COLD AIR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH A
ROBUST 90 PERCENT OR SO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS) ALONG WITH
EXCELLENT OVER LAKE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -12 TO
-14 C) WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION. THEREFORE..THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE STEADILY WANES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED LOCALS WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY (WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS) AS A QUICK SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE APPEARING FAIRLY LIMITED...SO LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD NOT FAIRLY WEAK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A NEW TREND BY THE MODELS IS TO
DEVELOP FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE IT INTO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING UPON YOUR
MODEL OF CHOICE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY LEADING TO DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY. LOTS
OF CONFLICTING FACTORS HERE AND CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
IS RATHER LOW AS THE SEPARATION BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND
MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH BECOMES RATHER SKEWED. OVERALL DECENT
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN PUSH OF THE MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER INTO THE
PICTURE. BY SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
WIN OUT AGAIN RENEWING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
SATURDAY THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...IFR AND MVFR AGAIN WITH SNOW TONIGHT...

A SOUPY AND MILD AIR MASS REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE STUCK UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION...RESULTING IN
IFR/MVFR STRATUS...DUE BOTH TO VSBYS AS WELL AS CIGS. A SFC TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND MID DAY WHICH WILL AT LEAST RID
OURSELVES OF THE IFR...TURNING TO STRAIGHT MVFR. THIS EVENING...A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD
REACH 1-2" PER HOUR AT TIMES...WITH A FOCUS ON MANISTEE AND TVC.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE 2-4" WITH
THE MOST OVER THE NW LOWER TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY AT
APN...WITH AN OVERALL LIGHT SW FLOW TURNING MORE WEST LATER
TODAY...AND THEN OUT OF THE NW TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED WITH A FEW GALES...

EASTERLY WINDS IN A NEAR NEUTRAL OVERLAKE ENVIRONMENT ARE LIKELY TO
BE LEADING TO SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN
ALONG THE MACKINAC COUNTY SHORE THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEFORE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULTS IN A TEMPORARY
LULL IN THE WINDS. ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS COME BACK LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN DEEPENING INSTABILITY...BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS.

WEAKER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEHIND THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL HAS LED TO APPRECIABLE SNOWMELT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISES IN MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ISSUES...THE MANISTEE RIVER AT SHERMAN IS EXPECTED A MINOR
FLOOD STAGE TO BE ATTAINED...AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING MAY
ALSO SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR MIZ016>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LHZ345-347.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LHZ348-349.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
HYDROLOGY...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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