Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 181759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
159 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 1057 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Cold front bisecting northern lower Michigan this morning,
ushering in cooler (but still above normal) air. Unbelievably warm
temperatures this morning, with readings up to 35 degrees above
normal in some areas (Wow!). Combination of shortwave energy
sliding across upper Michigan and low level convergence along the
front, helping to produce a band of mainly light showers across
the area. Even a few rumbles of thunder over eastern upper
Michigan earlier this morning. For the afternoon hours, showers
will gradually be ending from west-east. Clouds will slowly thin
out as well, although upper Michigan and the higher terrain of
northern lower may be slow to clear. Temperatures steady or slowly
falling in most areas - although remaining above normal for this
time of the year.

The pressure gradient will begin to relax as well, resulting in
gradually dissipating winds.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Cooler air arrives today...

High impact weather potential: A few thunderstorms remain possible
this morning.

Overview: Broad troughiness is in place from the west coast
through the Great Lakes with a pronounced temperature gradient and
attending strong upper jet streak cutting across the CONUS. Strong
short wave impulse/deep surface low and batch of showers/thunderstorms
now exiting the Great Lakes quickly through southeast Ontario, and
trailing cold front cutting through eastern upper Michigan and
down through Wisconsin. Secondary short wave is punching up into
NW Wisconsin along with several clusters of post- frontal showers.
Here at home, a windy and very warm night with temperatures
running nearly 30 degrees above normal for mid October (a warm
night even by mid July standards). Winds have been diminishing
over the last few hours with the core of strongest winds getting
shunted off to the east.

Today: Cold front and trailing batch of showers will cross the
region this morning. Per SPC analysis, still a corridor of modest
instability stretching through lower Michigan ahead of the front,
with lightning strikes back across northern Wisconsin moving into
western upper Michigan. So, will have to keep at least a mention
of thunder in the forecast this morning until the front gets
through the area. After that, cooler and drier air will overspread
the region through the afternoon, although upstream satellite/obs
data and model RH forecasts suggest lower cloud cover will hang
around through a good chunk of the day, particularly in eastern
upper Michigan. Temperatures should dip downward yet this morning
then remain rather flat line through the remainder of the day.

Tonight: A clear to partly cloudy night anticipated as surface
high pressure overspreads the western lakes region. Much cooler
with lows solidly in the 40s, although still a good 5 to 10
degrees above normal for mid October.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

(10/19)Wednesday...For the day, it looks like high pressure over the
warm sector begins to move out of the region, and the cold front
moves through. With the sfc low developing in the S Plains, along
the main baroclinic zone, in the Ohio Valley, and the 500 mb trough
is in the C Plains, will expect that the rain will remain in the Mid-
Mississippi Valley during the day. This allows the colder air to
begin into push in the Upper Great Lakes, ofter 00z. The models show
the 0C air beginning to get into E Upper between 06z and 12z. With
the water temperatures still in the mid teens C will expect that the
instability will be marginal until closer to 12z.

(10/20)Thursday...The cold air advection continues into the day as
the 500 mb trough drops into Upper Great Lakes. By 00z, the 850 mb
temperatures have fallen to about -3c over N Lake Michigan. This
produces more than enough instability for LE Rain. Moisture in the
850-700 mb layer is over 80% in the RH and the 1000-850 mb winds are
out of the North. This is expected to remain over the region through
the night enhancing the chances for rain in NW Lower mainly west of

Extended (Friday through Monday)...Once the 500 mb trough is east of
the Great Lakes, the region gets into a weak  NW flow pattern as the
500 mb ridge maintains its dominance over the central part of the
continent. This keeps us in around to above normal temperatures and
precipitation as we head into the weekend and early next week. This
looks to put us into a similar pattern for days 8-14 as well. At
this point, it looks like we won`t be getting any snow anytime


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

MVFR cigs trending to VFR late this afternoon and evening as high
pressure moves into the area. Areas of fog possible tonight,
although should have limited impact on the terminals. Winds will
subside through this evening as gradient relaxes. Next cold front
brings increasing cloudiness on Wednesday but no precipitation
during the day.


Issued at 342 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Winds have been diminishing over the last few hours and will
continue to diminish as we go through the day. Will likely be able
to let ongoing Lake Michigan gale warning expire at 5 am. But
small craft advisories will remain through much of the day.
Lighter winds and waves anticipated through the balance of the


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-



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