Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 140739
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
239 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

...Not as cold with widespread rain developing late tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Strong high pressure has shifted just SE
of Michigan early this morning...while our next low pressure system
is organizing to the lee of the Rockies. Southerly flow is
strengthening over the Plains...Mississippi Valley and the far
Western Great Lakes region between these two systems. Arrival of
drier low level air across Michigan has scoured out some low
cloudiness and has lifted cigs in areas where low clouds remain.
Temps are holding in the low to mid 30s under residual cloud
cover...while temps have fallen into the mid to upper 20s where
skies have partially cleared.

Some mid clouds are already moving thru portions of Northern
Michigan and Northern Wisconsin along and north of the eastern edge
of the initial warm front associated with the developing upstream
system. These mid clouds will gradually increase and lower as we
head thru the day in response to strengthening WAA and mid level
moisture advection ahead of the system. Precip chances will begin to
increase later this afternoon across our far NW CWA...and will
spread SE thru the rest of our CWA during the evening. Precip will
become widespread overnight as deep moisture and strong low level
convergence/upper level divergence arrive along and ahead of the
approaching cold front. Low level temp profile shows all precip
should remain of the liquid variety thru tonight.

High temps will warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s this
afternoon. Diurnal temp swing will be small thanks to ongoing low
level WAA and thick cloud cover. Overnight lows will only fall a few
degrees into the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

...Wet midweek weather...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Warm air advection/isentropic ascent is expected
to be squarely atop northern Michigan come Wednesday morning
associated with a deepening area of low pressure trekking over lake
Superior into southern Ontario throughout the day. As low pressure
continues to move eastward, a cold front is expected to press west
to east across the forecast area later in the day with a surge of
colder air aloft sweeping in Wednesday night into Thursday, leading
to the potential for lake effect processes to ramp up for a period
of time behind the departing system.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Widespread precipitation
Wednesday morning followed by increasing lake effect induced precip
chances Wednesday night.

Deep layer moisture continues to increase across northern Michigan
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with PWs progged to rise
between 0.75-0.90" by 12z/Wed. Formidable forcing aloft coincides
with the uptick in moisture as mid level shortwave energy aloft
arrives into the western Great Lakes. All this leading to
widespread, steady rain across the bulk of northern Michigan through
the morning hours. Latest trends continue to suggest the system`s
cold front tracking west to east across the forecast area late in
the morning through mid afternoon, taking the bulk of the widespread
rain with it. Additional QPF through the day Wednesday on the order
of a two to four tenths of an inch, bringing event totals to 0.35-
0.75"...highest across eastern Upper and the near the Lake Huron
shoreline.

Cooler and significantly drier air is ushered in behind Wednesday`s
frontal passage with H8 temps steadily falling through Wednesday
night to roughly -8 to -10 C. Resultant increase in over-lake
instability and brisk northwesterly winds will yield a decent chance
for lake effect shower development. Forecast soundings continue to
peg a rather slow cooling of the lowest 1-1.5kft, holding off a
transition to snow showers until late evening-overnight. That said,
wouldn`t be shocked to see snowflakes mix in across eastern Upper
and the higher terrain of northern Lower during the early evening
hours. Surface high pressure gradually building into the area will
make its presence felt as early as Thursday morning with drier
air/subsidence bringing an end to any lingering lake effect. With
only a limited opportunity for snow showers, not a whole lot in the
way of accumulation anticipated over the typical lake belts of
interior northern Lower and eastern Upper - perhaps a few places
pick up a minor accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

High impact weather potential: A potentially strong system arrives
this weekend with a myriad of possible issues including rain, gusty
winds and eventually snow.

Focus through the extended forecast period revolves around the
Friday through the Sunday/Monday timeframe as a Pacific originated
mid level wave is expected to carve out troughing across the center
of the CONUS with attendant cyclogenesis underway lee of the
Rockies. Said low pressure is expected to deepen as it approaches
and eventually crosses the Great Lakes Friday night-Saturday.
Noticeably gusty winds and increasing rain chances will commence as
early as Friday afternoon (perhaps a bit of mixed precip to start?)
...continuing into Saturday before the system`s cold front sweeps
east across the forecast area allowing winds to veer northwesterly
and for much cooler Canadian air to spill into northern
Michigan...possibly providing an extended period of lake effect snow
through the remainder of the weekend. A lack of recent guidance run-
to-run consistency precludes much in the way of confidence in many
of the details including timing, intensity, track and snow
chances/amounts, but the Friday through Monday timeframe certainly
warrants keeping an eye on moving forward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1154 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Still on the lookout for what could be an expanding MVFR
(potentially IFR?) producing stratus deck across western taf
location this morning. May also see some patchy fog/br. If stratus
does form, may struggle to burn off during the day. Will
cautiously play it optimistically for now, scattering out the low
overcast later this morning and afternoon. Light winds through
this taf period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

Winds and waves strengthen to SCA criteria by this afternoon for
Whitefish Bay and all Lake Michigan nearshore areas thanks to
strengthening southerly flow and WAA ahead of the next system
developing in the Plains. Conditions will reach SCA criteria across
all Lake Huron nearshore areas this evening as stronger winds spread
eastward thru our area. Widespread rain will develop tonight across
our entire area and will continue thru Wednesday. Precip will become
mixed with and eventually change to snow Wednesday night as colder
air sweeps into the region behind the associated cold front.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for LSZ322.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MR



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