Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 262300
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
600 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WELL WHAT DO YOU KNOW? ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER CHALLENGING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BUT THEN AGAIN...THAT`S NOTHING NEW RECENTLY.
THE BASIC PATTERN OVERNIGHT IS ONE WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING WORKING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS CURRENTLY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD SUNRISE. FLOW AROUND SAID FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM A
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE
OF A WEST/NORTHWEST SETUP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL BE HEAVILY MODULATED BY MESOSCALE EFFECTS...IN PART DRIVEN
BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME VERY COLD/DENSE AIR FOR INLAND AREAS AS
THE BOTTOM AGAIN FALLS OUT IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. SAID
SHIFTING FLOW SETS UP AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR LAKE SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO DRIFT BACK
TOWARD FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (LOOKING AT YOU LEELANAU-BENZIE-
MANISTEE COUNTIES). HOWEVER...THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH AT ONLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS TO REIGN IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF ANY LAKE
SNOWS...AS DOES THE VERY REAL POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG DENSITY
GRADIENT NEAR THE LAND/LAKESHORE INTERFACE (PENDING JUST HOW COLD
IT GETS INLAND) TO HOLD SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT NEAR THE LAKESHORE. ANY
ACCUMULATION LOOKS RELATIVELY MINOR - AN INCH OR LESS - THOUGH THE
THERMAL REGIME DOES IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH THE VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
DECK "WARMING" BACK THROUGH THE DGZ.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORE AREAS...FORESEE ANOTHER CLEAR
NIGHT...AS ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS RAPIDLY FADES BEFORE SUNSET. THAT
COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE A WEAK GRADIENT FOR MOST AREAS SHOULD
RESULT IN A VERY QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT...SUCH THAT I HAVE A VERY HARD TIME BELIEVING THE WARMER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS THAT SUGGEST OUR COLD SPOTS ONLY END UP IN THE -10
TO -15F RANGE. THAT JUST DOESN`T COMPUTE GIVEN OUR HISTORY
LATELY...AND WILL AGAIN TANK NUMBERS THROUGH THE -10F TO -25F RANGE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...JUST A TOUCH WARMER
NORTH OF THE BRIDGE WHERE WE SHOULD PICK UP A BETTER GRADIENT AND AT
LEAST SOME BREATHS OF WIND OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...IF WE PLAY
OUR CARDS RIGHT...THIS MAY WELL END UP BEING THE LAST REALLY COLD
NIGHT FOR QUITE SOME TIME...AT LEAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HEADING
THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. WE SHALL SEE. IN THE MEANTIME...STAY WARM!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

...RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL OVERALL...SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: VERY COLD LAST SEVEN DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES 23-24 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN (13-
15 BELOW AVERAGE MONTH-TO-DATE)...THANKS TO A VERY PERSISTENT ANCHOR
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  A GRADUAL
RETROGRESSION/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO A
STRENGTHENING -PNA WITH RIDGING HAVING BEEN DISPLACED FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND OVERALL NEGATIVE PACIFIC
TELECONNECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE ATMOSPHERIC BUS INTO
MARCH.  INDICATIONS ARE THAT MEAN TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WITH SPLIT TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.  EVENTUALLY THERE IS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING NORTHERN STREAM/SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE LATER
NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLIDES
EAST OF MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WHILE SPLIT FLOW TROUGHING DEVELOPS OUT
WEST.  NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY.  ARCTIC HIGH SPANNING THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TURN EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR A STRONGER SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MICHIGAN FOR THE WEEKEND.  MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHING WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY...HOW CLOSE
THIS GETS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: LAKE EFFECT POSSIBILITIES FRIDAY/
SATURDAY...SYNOPTIC SNOW THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS PRESSURES
RISE SOUTH OF MICHIGAN...WOULD EXPECT WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS CURRENTLY RUNNING DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL GET PUSHED ASHORE LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY AT LEAST FROM GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH (I.E., WHERE THE LAKE MICHIGAN ICE COVER IS
THINNEST).  STRATOCUMULUS AND FLURRIES SHOULD SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  CLOUDS WILL SHALLOW OUT
HEADING INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT WITH LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
CONTINUING OVER THE BEST OPEN WATER FETCH LEFT ON LAKE MICHIGAN
THERE ARE ENOUGH SIGNALS THAT SOME CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WILL PERSIST INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED
TO MODERATE INTO THE TEENS...STILL A SOLID 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...STILL FAIRLY QUIET SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING SATURDAY WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PROBABLY STILL SOME RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MUCH DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY`S HIGHS.  A COUPLE AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE IMPINGING UPON
MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT...ONE COMING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE THE ONE
OF IMPORTANCE FOR SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN BUT WON`T GET TOO BOGGED DOWN IN THE DETAILS JUST YET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. MILDER TEMPS AND INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN LAKES. MODELS SHOW MID LVL TEMPS WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 0C AND +1C
AS FAR NORTH AS SAGINAW BAY. HOWEVER...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE WRN LAKES
THURSDAY...AS THE SRN LAKES STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
THRU TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS WEST OF US-131 (TVC
AND MBL) WHERE MVFR LAKE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP. THESE LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FURTHER
EAST TO TOWARD I-75 ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...APN AND PLN WILL REMAIN
VFR THRU FRIDAY EVENING AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES. LIGHT/CALM
WINDS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WILL BECOME W/SW
AOB 10 KTS ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF
MICHIGAN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...SWR
AVIATION...MLR


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