Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 290131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
931 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Issued at 929 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Updated the forecast earlier to account for the good mixing of the
BL we got in the afternoon, bringing dew points down into the 40s
and even some upper 30s. When combined with great radiational
cooling expected, 30+ diurnal swing in temperature will occur.
Lowered the low lying areas down into mainly the 40s with a few of
the low lying areas possibly hitting the upper 30s. Otherwise, no
other updates needed under clear skies and winds going calm/near


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017


High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...500mb cold pool/mid level shortwave
moving away from the region with strong ridge approaching.
Meanwhile, sfc high centered over Lake Superior drifts slow SE
through the forecast period.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Not much in the way of sensible
weather for the near term with strong subsidence expected. Only a
possibility of some valley fog tonight as temperatures drop below
normal under clear skies and diminishing winds.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...Sunshine and Warmth...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast:  Expansive upper level ridging covering the middle
and western parts of the CONUS into early next week.  When combined
with a large area of surface high pressure across the Great
lakes/Midwest, little in the way of sensible weather is expected
through the weekend.  Sunday night into Monday, a weak and poorly
defined mid level shortwave will drop into the Great Lakes with
limited moisture and little in the way of sensible weather.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Not much. Overnight low
temperatures may be a touch cooler than guidance in some locations.
Will also have to see whether any pop up showers develop Monday
afternoon with weak shortwave.

Details: Not a whole lot of sensible weather to talk about through
Sunday as high pressure and strong subsidence across the region
provide mostly sunny skies and slightly above normal temperatures.
Light wind fields should allow for lake breezes to develop during
the afternoon, possibly helping to produce a bit of inland cumulus
cloud.  Weak moisture starved wave slides across the area on Monday.
Models continue to be less than impressive with this feature, based
largely on the overall lack of deep layer ambient moisture, weak
forcing and minimal instability.   May see a few showers develop
Monday afternoon over northeast lower and interior eastern upper,
thanks to inland penetrating lake breeze boundaries.  A bit more cu
development on Monday but still plenty of sunshine across the area.
High temperatures climbing into the 80s in many inland locations
Sunday and Monday, slightly cooler over eastern upper and near the
coasts.  Decent radiational cooling during the overnight periods,
allowing temperatures to drop into the 50s over inland areas (even a
few upper 40s possible Saturday night in typically cooler

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

With high pressure overhead for most of the period, the primary
chance for rain over the extended will be Tue/Wed as a weak cold
front sweeps across the area. This will also cool temperatures from
a bit above normal early in the week, becoming near to slightly
below normal after midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High pressure over the western Great Lakes through the TAF period
will bring a plethora of sunshine/clear skies with light winds
going to lake breezes in the afternoon. Maybe some patchy fog that
could impact mainly PLN/MBL both tonight and Saturday night.


Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

High pressure over Lake Superior will bring pleasant weather to
the area over the next couple days. Gusty winds will diminish this
evening and remain light through the weekend.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.


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