Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 161141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
641 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

No major weather concerns in the short-term portion of the forecast.

Today into tonight: Lake effect snow showers over the north-central
portions of the U.P. this morning will quickly come to an end as
warm air begins to slide into the area aloft. 850mb temperature will
warm from around -10C to -12 up to around 0C by this afternoon. At
the same time, winds will shift to the south by mid morning and then
remain southerly through tonight. This wind shift and warmer air
aloft will effectively end any lake effect potential for all areas
of the U.P. from mid morning through the rest of the short-term.
Cloud cover will remain partly to mostly cloud across the area
through much of the day as a quick moving shortwave slide across the
Upper Great Lakes. There will be some mid-level moisture as shown by
soundings and verified via upstream observations; however, low-level
moisture will be limited at best and forcing will be lacking, which
will lead to a dry passage of this shortwave. As the shortwave
slides east of the area late in the day, skies will begin to briefly
clear before another area of moisture slides across the CWA tonight.
The main concern with this will again be the potential for increased
cloud cover once again. The moderation in temperatures will begin
slowly today with highs warming into the mid 20s east half while the
west half may see temperatures reach into the mid 30s, especially if
the sun breaks through. Overnight lows will also be warming as well
with lows expected to be in the teen central and east with low to
mid 20s expected far west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the upper Great
Lakes 12z Fri with a shortwave moving into the area Fri night
through Sat morning. Behind this shortwave...ridging builds back
into the area. Quiet, dry and warm weather will continue through
this forecast period.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the central
U.S. 12z Sun. This ridge amplifies as it moves into the upper Great
Lakes 12z Mon. A shortwave moves through the area 12z Tue with more
troughing for Wed. The warm air associated with the ridge gets
pushed further south with time as colder air makes a return to the
area on Thu. We are on the southern edge of the colder airmass as a
cold front moves through on Wed. Much above normal temperatures will
cool to slightly above normal by Thu. Looks warm enough that most
pcpn will be rain. Late Tue night and early Wed morning, looks like
there could be a little freezing rain possibility with temperatures
slightly below freezing.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 641 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

High pressure and dry air sliding across the area through much of
this TAF period will keep each TAF site mainly at VFR conditions
with light winds. There is some mid to higher level moisture sliding
across the area today, which may give some broken to overcast mid-
level ceilings, but it should remain low impact. The only area that
might see a bit lower ceiling will be KSAW later tonight as south to
southeasterly upslope flow may cause some MVFR ceilings; however,
the flow may be light enough to keep ceiling from getting too low.
At this point, have hinted at lowering ceilings overnight for KSAW

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 325 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017

Winds through the weekend will remain at or less than 25 knots as
the pressure gradient remains weak across the area in the absence of
any major pressure systems. The next chance of south to southeast
winds gusting as high as 30 knots will be Monday night into Tuesday
as the pressure gradient increase along and ahead of a cold front
passing through the area.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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