Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 111744
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. A MARGINAL POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
PRODUCED A FEW MID CLOUDS OVER THE CWA...BUT MOST OF THEM HAVE
STAYED NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND CLOSER TO THE WEAK TROUGH
SITUATED THERE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TAKING A LITTLE
WHILE TO FALL HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEY HAVE NOW
STARTED TO GO BELOW FREEZING AT INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN ALGER COUNTY...WHERE MUNISING IS
STILL HOVERING AROUND 40.

UPSTREAM...THERE ARE A COUPLE FEATURES OF NOTE...ONE OF WHICH WILL
BE AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY. THE TWO FEATURES ARE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STRONGER OF THE TWO IS
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA AND DID PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE EVENING YESTERDAY. THE SECOND WAVE IS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH OF THAT AND MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY SEEING MID CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE AND ALTHOUGH THERE ARE RETURNS SHOWING ON RADARS IN THAT
AREA...OBSERVATIONS HAVE ONLY INDICATED DZ OR SPRINKLES THUS FAR.
THAT IS DUE TO THE VERY DRY SUB 700MB AIR SHOWN ON BOTH THE 00Z
KBIS/KABR SOUNDINGS. THIS WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF NOTE FOR TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE
EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE
IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE THIS
OCCURS...WITH BROAD/WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE
BELOW 850MB REALLY LACKING (EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN) AND MODELS HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO THEM FROM
THERE TO THE SURFACE (WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH TD VALUES CURRENTLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S). THUS...WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OUT OF THE MID CLOUDS TO BE EVAPORATED
BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND GENERALLY UNDER
0.05IN. THAT MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 21Z SREF PROBS THAT ONLY
INDICATE 10 PERCENT CHANCE AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 0.05IN/3HR OR
0.1IN/6HR. THE 21Z/03Z SREF 3HR CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM
GUIDANCE GIVES A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS MAY BE BIASED BY SREF
MEAN TD VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THINK THAT AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SEEN ON
RAOBS UPSTREAM AT 00Z AND AFTERNOON TD VALUES IN THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA YESTERDAY. IT MAY BE KEYING OFF THE STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (850-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5C/KM AND
850-700MB OF 8-9C/KM)...BUT EVEN THEN LIFTING A PARCEL FROM THOSE
ELEVATED LEVELS FAILS TO GET REALLY ANY CAPE. THUS...WON/T MENTION
ANY THUNDER. AS FOR TIMING...THINK THE INITIAL VIRGA AND EVENTUALLY
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE U.P. FROM WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT MUCH OF IT EAST OUT OF THE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THE HIGHS FOR
TODAY MAY BE A TOUCH TOO HIGH DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS
STREAMING. STILL HAVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S OVER
THE WEST/CENTRAL UNDER THE EXPECTATION THE DEPARTING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ALLOW VALUES TO RISE LATE.

TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AFTER INITIAL CLEARING IN THE
EVENING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP
JUST STARTING TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR IRONWOOD
LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE STARTED THE UPWARD TREND TO POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO
THE NRN LAKES WILL BRING PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET STREAK INTO
NRN ONTARIO...STRONG 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT(700-750 MB) AND MOISTURE
INFLOW SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL POPS AND PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCH RANGE. FOR TIMING...THE FCST LEANED TOWARD THE REGIONAL
GEM...ECMWF...GFS CONSENSUS WHICH WAS SLOWER THAN THE NAM. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL UPPER MI AND THE
KEWEENAW PENSINSULA. SFC TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE 32 AND THE HIGHER TEMPS
PRECEDING THE PCPN SHOULD MINIMIZED POTENTIAL FOR ANY FZRA. ANY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. GFS/ECMWF
SHOWLATER INDICES AND MUCAP VALUES SUPPORT MENTION OF TSRA OVER THE
SRN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LEFTOVER PCPN IN
THE ERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISN AND DEPART TO THE EAST BY LATE
EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN.

SUN INTO MON...AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH A RIDGE INTO THE WEST
COAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES PRODUCING A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW ON
THE NW EDGE OF THE PCPN. THE FAVORED AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF/GEM
WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST KEEP
THE HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV AND MID LEVEL FGEN
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. SO...CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED
OVER THE SE HALF. IF THE SYSTEM MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
NW...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EAST.

LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...NRLY WINDS...AND 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -11C COULD PRODUCE SOME LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.

TUE AND WED...UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS FROM
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S TUE AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WED.
ADDITIONAL MAINLY DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -16C
CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THU...CONFIDECNE IS LOWER AS THE GEM/ECMWF WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND BRING SOME WAA PCPN BACK INTO THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN TODAY WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE ARE ISOLATE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IS
LIMITED AMOUNTS REACHING THE GROUND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
VCSH AT KSAW...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO STAY SOUTH OF
THAT SITE. OTHERWISE... DISSIPATING TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN AFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE GRADUALLY
LOWERING CEILINGS (ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KCMX) WITH THE MAIN RAIN
AND LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVING DURING SATURDAY MORNING. LOWERED
CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR NOW...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
AT KIWD AND KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO QUEBEC THIS
EVENING AS W-NW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING SUBSIDE. BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW  A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND LEAD TO WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS.
THESE LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND FROM A LOW IN THE PLAINS STATES. THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY ORIENT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
TO THE 25KTS RANGE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
15-25KT RANGE (SHIFTING TO THE N-NW ON SUNDAY) AS THE LOW PULLS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BLO 20 KTS FOR TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN TO OR BELOW FREEZING AND
WILL SLOW THE EXISTING SNOWMELT. BUT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TODAY...EXPECT ANOTHER PUSH (AND
LIKELY LAST ONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS) TO THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF TODAY.
FORTUNATELY...LIMITED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HAS KEPT THE SNOWMELT SIMILAR TO NORMAL SPRING
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT A SLOW STEADY RISE IN RIVER
LEVELS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY LARGER RIVERS
TO RISE ABOVE BANKFULL AT THIS TIME. RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS AND
PICTURES OF SOME SMALL CREEKS AND STREAM IN DELTA COUNTY NEAR OR OUT
OF THEIR BANKS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WERE NOTED. ALSO RECEIVED
A REPORT OF ICE COVERED BIG IRON RIVER BEGINNING TO BREAK UP NEAR
SILVER CITY AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF HINTS OF SMALL ICE JAMS ON A
COUPLE OF HYDROGRAPHS /PARTICULARLY THE ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR ROCKLAND
AND FORD RIVER NEAR HYDE...WITH THE ONTONAGON RIVER APPEARING TO BE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/. THIS ICE BREAK UP DOES LEAD TO SOME CONCERN
FOR ICE JAMS ON OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR RIVERS
THAT EMPTY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ENCOUNTER FROZEN MOUTHS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO UP TO 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OVER
SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
AREA RIVERS.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR AMOUNTS TO BE IN THE 0.25-0.70 INCH
RANGE...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING WITH THIS RAIN...THE
IMPACT ON THE RIVERS SHOULD BE LIMITED. THEN...COLDER AIR SURGES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE OR EVEN
END THE SNOW MELT...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AND LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING. SINCE 4-9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
STILL REMAINS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR THE SECOND
PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF
HYDROLOGY...SRF/TITUS






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