Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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172
FXUS63 KMQT 031741
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1241 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

DOUBLE BARREL SFC LOW OVER ERN IA AND SERN LOWER MI AND A STRONG
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER IA HAVE LED TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER MAINLY WRN/NWRN AND NCENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT.
SCENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI SAW A BURST OF SNOW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED THERE
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHIFTED NW. OVERALL...THE HRRR/RAP HAVE
PERFORMED WELL TONIGHT IN SHOWING INCREASE IN SNOW RATES OVER THE
NCENTRAL AND NW AS UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASED WHILE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALSO STRENGTHENED. FOLLOWED RAP/HRRR MODEL TRENDS IN THE
NEAR TERM.

NW EDGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN PLACES TOO FAR NW BY
MOST MODELS...THE GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THAT SO FOLLOWED IT
INTO THE FUTURE. COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE SCENTRAL
AND E THIS MORNING.

A LOT OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS LOST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HOWEVER...AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE JUST SE OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND A BOOST IN SNOWFALL RATES/AMOUNTS.
AFTER THAT...EXPECT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LES THROUGH TONIGHT IN
N THEN NW WIND SNOWBELTS.

COULD HAVE CANCELLED HEADLINES FROM DICKINSON COUNTY THROUGH
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AS SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF CRITERIA...BUT WITH ROADS LIKELY STILL SLIPPERY...SOME
BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MI/BAY OF GREEN BAY...AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXING IN...DECIDED TO JUST LET
THOSE CONTINUE. DICKINSON AND MENOMINEE ONLY GO UNTIL 12Z TODAY AND
DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT UNTIL 18Z. COULD CERTAINLY SEE PULLING
DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT EARLY IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES NOT BECOME
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT CALL AS TRENDS ARE
MONITORED. ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES MAY ONLY END UP WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALLS...BUT SAW NO BENEFIT TO CANCELING THE
WARNING AND CHANGING TO AN ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBLEM ALONG M-28 LATER TODAY. THINK OTHER
WARNINGS WILL WORK OUT JUST FINE...SO LEFT THOSE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

TROF CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL NAMERICA WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT SHIFTS E TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE E HALF OF NAMERICA. RELAXING
OF THE TROF WILL DELAY THE TREND TO AN EXPECTED COLD PATTERN/BLO
NORMAL TEMP REGIME THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED SINCE LAST WEEK. THIS
WEEKEND...RAPIDLY BUILDING RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER FAR
WRN NAMERICA WILL RESULT IN NOTABLE DEEPENING OF THE TROF DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE E HALF OF NAMERICA...AND THIS WILL SPELL THE ONSET OF A
COLD PATTERN/BLO NORMAL TEMP REGIME FOR THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK.
SOME OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AND RECENT OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS
POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS DIVING INTO
THE UPPER LAKES IN THE FEB 11 TO FEB 13 TIME FRAME...THE KIND OF
COLD THAT COULD RIVAL THE COLDEST AIR MASSES SEEN DURING THE LAST 2
WINTERS. THE BITTER COLD SIGNAL IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE CFSV2 RUNS AS
WELL. WITH THE COLD PATTERN DEVELOPING...NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH INDICATIONS OF A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE LAST HALF OF FEB.

BEGINNING THU/THU NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W. WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN WAVE APPROACHING...LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK THRU THE DAY. SCT-NMRS -SHSN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL SHIFT WITH THE BACKING WINDS...AND THEN SOME -SN MAY ARRIVE
OVER THE W AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THU
NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. WITH
850MB TEMPS IN THE -13 TO -16C RANGE...EXPECT A BURST OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE TROF/WSHFT TO THE WNW/NW. MIGHT SEE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NW THU NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THE E NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR SAT
MORNING. ASSOCIATED SFC TROF WILL DROP S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING...BRINGING A WSHFT TO THE N. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
TROF...EXPECT ANOTHER BURST OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE
WSHFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MANY LOCATIONS
NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO THE WSHFT TO THE N. RAPID FALLING OF INVERSION
AND DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING LES BEHIND THE TROF ON SAT.

WITH THE BUILDING OF THE WRN RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG MUCH MORE SHARPLY INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT KIND OF SFC LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS SHARPLY AMPLIFYING TROF...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE AREN`T MANY
GFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPING FOR THE WRN GREAT LAKES. IN ANY EVENT...SHOULD SEE SOME
-SN SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SUN INTO MON. POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR GOOD LAKE ENHANCED SNOW DEPENDING ON SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPMENT. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SFC LOW OR TROF...LES WILL TAKE
OFF AS SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO -20C OR LWR HEADING
INTO TUE WITH N WIND FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS SEEING THE
HEAVIER/MORE PERSISTENT LES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT EACH TAF SITE
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING
THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND LOW
CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM IWD/CMX THIS EVENING TO KSAW LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM BLSN TO IMPROVE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS
OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL -SN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRES TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...EVENTUALLY CROSSING FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND ADJACENT WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...SO GALE WARNING REMAINS
OVER THAT AREA FOR LATE EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY...THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS OF 20-30KT...STRONGEST
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MIZ001>007-009-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TITUS



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