000
FXUS63 KMQT 141723
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
123 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temps (lower to mid 60s) and better mixing will lead to
  gusty NW winds and pronounced drying this afternoon near the
  WI border. Will be issuing a Fire Weather SPS for the counties
  bordering WI.
- Dry and mostly sunny elsewhere today, although it will
  probably stay cooler with maybe some clouds for eastern
  shoreline areas near Lake Superior under a steady NW wind.
- Mostly dry weather through Tuesday. RHs fall to 20-30% in the
  interior west Sunday and Monday, causing some fire weather
  concern.
- A low pressure tracks through the Upper Great Lakes during
  the midweek, causing widespread rain showers.
- Chances of precipitation remain probable (~50%) into the late-
  week, though uncertainty exists on timing, intensity, and
  precipitation type.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Isolated rain showers will be ending early this morning over eastern
counties as the weather-making shortwave and associated sfc low shift
east out the area. Conditions today will be dry under abundant
sunshine for most areas, although clouds could linger over the east
into the afternoon.

The focus quickly shifts to elevated fire weather concerns for
inland counties along the WI border this afternoon as increased
heating and mixing will lead to gusty NW winds and lowering dew
points and RHs. Fcst soundings and local mixed dew point
guidance indicate a high potential for northwest wind gusts in the
20-25 mph range and RHs lower to 25% or less across the counties
bordering WI. Despite the rainfall last night, with these gusty
winds and low RHs fine fuels will likely dry out quickly this
afternoon. As a result, I`ve decided to match up with GRB and issue
a fire weather SPS for these WI border counties this afternoon into
early evening.

As mentioned before, expect dry conditions across the area today
under building sfc high pressure and mid-level subsidence.
Cooler n-nw winds coming off Lake Superior will work to limit
mixing for counties and locations near the Lake Superior,
effectively keeping temps cooler and winds not quite as gusty.
As a result, there should be minimal to no fire weather concerns
elsewhere today.

Look for highs today ranging from the 50s across the north and east
with the onshore n-nw flow off Lake Superior to the lower to mid 60s
along the WI border.

High pressure will continue the dry conditions tonight. Look for
lows mostly in the lower to mid 30s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 459 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The story of the week ahead`s weather will be the dry weather to
begin the week ahead of widespread showers thanks to the passage of
a strong low pressure system in the midweek. The details on the late
week weather are a bit murky but generally active and cooler weather
is to be expected into the third weekend of April.

Aloft, 500mb ridging will build over the UP on Monday as a closed
500mb low is kicked from the Desert Southwest into the Central
Plains by a trough over British Columbia. The closed low will be the
driver of weather later in the week, but in the meantime, mostly
clear skies are expected Monday and Monday night under a surface
high of around 1018mb. This will warm highs across the southern half
of the UP into the low to mid 60s with 50s in the north half.
Enhanced mixing will allow for dew points and RHs to drop
considerably as much of the interior UP will see minimum RHs in the
20% range Monday afternoon. Winds mainly under 10 mph with gusts
around 15 mph should keep fire weather concerns capped somewhat,
though if any fires do occur, CAMs are suggesting some lake breezes
are possible especially in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Under
still mostly clear skies, temperatures fall to the low to mid 30s
overnight Monday. Tuesday also appears mostly devoid of
precipitation, though RHs wont fall quite as much given increasing
clouds making mixing less efficient.

As mentioned before, a midlevel closed low will move east of the
Rockies, causing lee cyclogenesis. While ensembles have been
quite consistent in a track over the Upper Peninsula, trends
over the past day or so of guidance have slowed the approach
considerably, with the parent low now only making its approach
late Wednesday into Thursday. The low will be weakening with
time, as the 00Z Euro ensemble mean brings it from 989mb over
central Nebraska Tuesday afternoon to 1004 mb over northern Lake
Michigan late Wednesday into early Thursday. Confidence is
still high in a soaking rain with this system as Gulf of Mexico
moisture pours in from the south, with the NAEFS even showing a
99th climo-percentile vapor transport. This translates into
good coverage of QPF, as even just the 25th percentile of LREF
accumulated precip is around 1 inch with the 75th percentile
around 1.5-2 inches. Given the ongoing drought conditions across
the eastern and western thirds of the UP, hydro concerns should
still be low, though this is a certain relief for fire weather
concerns. The system will also bring with it gusty winds as the
Euro brings gales over Lake Superior and 30-70% chances of wind
gusts over land in the 35-40 mph range. The GEFS is somewhat
lower, with probabilities of 25 mph or higher sustained winds
really only being shown over the Keweenaw Peninsula. This
forecast will attempt to bridge the gap between those solutions,
but a worst case scenario (10% or less chance) of wind gusts up
to 40+ mph is not out of the realm of possibility if the NBM is
to be believed.

NBM PoPs show that widespread showers will taper off somewhat
Thursday, but as the GFS 500mb plots show multiple 500mb shortwaves
following the passage of the low, precipitation may linger into the
weekend, especially as LREF mean accumulated precip climbs steadily
(a pattern common in wet patterns with significant ensemble spread).
One thing to watch with the late week precipitation relative to the
mid-week system will be precip type, as the LREF shows some members
with snow as soon as Thursday morning. Uncertainty is high at this
time, but given the assortment of ensemble accumulated snowfall
solutions, winter lovers may be getting one more shot at some
accumulation by the end of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR prevails for the forecast period. Skies are largely clearing out
this afternoon, with just some fair weather cumulus beginning to pop
up on satellite. Additional patchy, midlevel cloud cover looks to
stream across Lake Superior into tonight, mainly impacting CMX and
SAW, but restrictions are not expected. Otherwise, expect NW winds
at around 8-12 knots today to turn light and variable overnight
before increasing out of the NW at 8-12kts again Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 459 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Through Monday evening, ridging will keep wind gusts below 20 kt. As
a strong low begins to eject out of the Rockies Monday night, the
enhanced pressure gradient will cause northeasterly and easterly
wind gusts up to 30 kt through Tuesday morning. As the low
approaches Lake Superior Wednesday, gales are likely (50+%), though
the direction will rapidly shift as the most likely path of the low
brings it directly across Lake Superior. Gusts of 40-47 kt are
around 20% likely with storm force gusts less than 10% likely.
Northwesterly winds remain high behind the low as between the
departing low, high pressure over the Plains, and any trailing low
pressures into the weekend, gradient flow will be strong, though
uncertainty is high in timing the strongest winds. Expect waves
below 4 feet until Monday night, when 4-8 foot waves begin to
overspread the lake by late Tuesday, with the highest being 8-12 ft
waves north of the Keweenaw Peninsula Tuesday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...GS