Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 241733
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
133 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 517 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated sw mid/upper level flow into
the the upper MS valley and Upper Michigan between a ridge over the
central Great Lakes and a broad trough over the wrn CONUS. although
the axis of higher moisture has gradually moved east into the CWA
with dewpoints into the upper 50s over the west, dewpoints remained
in the mid 40s central. Areas of showers and a few tsra over MN,
western Lake superior and northern WI into west Upper Michigan
supported by weak shortwaves have gradually weakened with overnight
cooling.

Today, The models suggest suggest that a shortwave trough over
northwest MN lifting into NW Ontario aided by flow off of Lake
Superior will drag a weak front into Upper Michigan. Ahead of the
front, expect enough heating despite thickening cloud cover to push
temps into the mid and upper 70s resulting in MLCAPE values into the
500-1000 J/Kg range this afternoon. sct/nmrs showers over the west
should gradually expand into the central and CWA this afternoon and
evening with tsra coverage increasing this afternoon, especially over
the se half. A weak shortwave moving NE from IA may also aid in
shra/tsra development. sfc-6km shear near 40 knots could support some
stronger storms and an isolated svr storm could not be ruled out, but
with only marginal instability, expect the tsra to remain below svr
limits.

Tonight, Expect the shra/tsra to gradually shift to shift to the
south of the cwa and weaken during the evening as the weak front
moves through and daytime heating subsides with the pcpn ending by
03z-06z. Look for min temps from the upper 40s north to lower 50s
south with lingering low clouds and some patchy fog possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Challenging forecast in the long term as almost every period will
see chances for convection sparked by multiple shortwaves ejecting
out of the upper trough over the western CONUS. As is expected in
this scenario, models disagree and have worse than normal
continuity. Leaned heavily on consensus blends given limited
confidence in any one model. No chances for severe weather can be
pinpointed at this time.

Wed morning starts the long term in a quiet way as ridging is
overhead. Convection may move in along all or a portion of the WI
border in the afternoon or evening depending on shortwave
timing/track and resulting convective trends.

After Wed just stuck with the blends given aforementioned limited
confidence.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

As a weak front moves through the sites this afternoon, some sct
showers are expected that tend to diminish at CMX/IWD late in the
afternoon. Although VFR conditions will prevail ahead of the cold
fnt, the arrival of a shallow moist airmass in its wake will cause
some low clouds and MVFR/IFR cigs following its passage at least for
a time. By tonight, lifr conditions will develop at all taf sites as
low level moisture remains trapped at the sfc. This will burn off
during Wed morning at all sites and CMX and IWD will go vfr while
SAW goes to mvfr.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 517 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Winds will diminish today and become northeast as a weak front moves
through. A period of NE winds of 20 to 25 knots over the western
lake is possible Wednesday as low pressure develops over the plains
and moves to the Upper MS valley. Otherwise, expect winds at or
below 20 knots through the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



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