Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250756
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
356 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

High pressure/light winds over the east tonight and skies will
remain clear. With that setup went for lows in the 40s inland
central and east. Temperatures will be in the 50s elsewhere, warmest
over far west with developing return flow there. Could be some
patchy fog overnight inland east.

Mid-level and sfc high pressure will remain in control through much
of the day on Tue keeping conditions dry over much of the cwa. Dew
points increasing to near 60F along and ahead of incoming frontal
boundary from the Northern Plains will result in MUCAPE values of
500j/kg or greater far west by late afternoon. This will at least
warrant slight chance pops over the far west for isold shra/tsra,
and with deep layer shear values fcst of 40-45 knots a strong tsra
would not be out of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

Overall, busy start to the middle of the work week, but then things
quiet down through the end of the week. A round or two of showers
and storms is possible on Wednesday as a cold front moves across the
area, a few storms could be strong. Also, ahead of this cold front,
strong and gusty southwest winds will create a moderate swim risk on
Wednesday for the northern shores of Lake Michigan. After the cold
front pushes across the area Wednesday night, there will be a slight
chance for showers as a shortwave digs south across the area on
Thursday, then things quiet down through the fist half of the
weekend.

Wednesday, lingering warm air advection showers and thunderstorms
across the central and east will continue to push eastward
throughout the morning hours. During the afternoon as the cold front
continues to push east across Upper Michigan, another round of
showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon, especially
across the east and south central. While cloud cover from convection
earlier in the day will likely hinder the amount of diurnal
destabilization, it isn`t out of the question that a few storms
could be strong to marginally severe, especially with the main
shortwave trough progged to dig southeast across Lake Superior and
over eastern portions of the area. The SPC has kept us within the
marginal risk for severe storms, which in this case given the
uncertainty in how the atmosphere will recover after early morning
convection seems appropriate. Right now it looks like heavy rain and
perhaps some gusty winds will be the main threat with stronger
convection in the afternoon/evening. However, if the atmosphere can
recover, with freezing levels falling right along the cold front
hail would also be a concern with stronger storms.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the cold front will finally push south
of the area and the weather will quiet down. During the day on
Thursday, a stout, fast moving shortwave is progged to dig south
across the Western Great Lakes region. With this wave progged to
come through during peaking heating, it isn`t out of the question
that we see a few scattered rain showers develop across the west and
central; however, better chances look to be right along the
Wisconsin/Michigan border. With little moisture ahead of this wave,
do not expect precipitation to amount to much. Behind this
shortwave, high pressure will begin to settle into the region
Thursday night through much of the weekend. With ample insolation
each day, expect seasonable highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Low
temperatures should remain very comfortable as clear skies give way
to ample radiational cooling each night. Towards the end of the
weekend/beginning of next week another cold front is progged to push
through the region. Confidence in how precipitation chances will
play out along this front is low right now as models diverge in the
strength and timing of the main shortwave aloft.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017

VFR conditions expected at each of the TAF sites through this
issuance.  Clouds will begin to slide into the western TAF sites
around 00Z/26, VFR intitially, and then gradually thicken to near
MVFR toward the end of the TAF period. A few showers and
thunderstorms may approach the western TAF sites after 00Z/26;
however, have left the mention out at this point as it is toward the
very end of the TAF period and chances are fairly low at that point.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Winds will be 15 knots or less through Tuesday morning with high
pressure overhead. The next chance for stronger winds from the south
to southwest over 20 kts will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning over eastern sections as a low pressure trough crosses the
region. Otherwise, winds this week will be 15 kts or less.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Voss


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