Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 172001
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
301 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

No big changes to going forecast today into tonight. Based on
full sunshine and stronger mixing over the west, increased max
temps to mid to upper 50s. A reading at the favored interior warm
spots of 60 degrees is not of the question. Clouds are fading fast
over the central and are starting to break up over the east as
well. Temps for the central and east were in fine shape. Coolest
readings in 30s today will be over east downwind of SW winds off
Lk Michigan. Added patchy fog for tonight over east half with
light winds off Lk Michigan adding to low-level moistening.

For reference here are record highs for today at various locations.
As it looks now forecast highs at Ironwood and Houghton are
somewhat close to these records. Otherwise, records at the other
sites should be safe today.

Ironwood 60F (2011)...Houghton area 51F (1981)...Irn Mtn 58F (1981)
NWS MQT 61F (1981)...Mqt city 55F (2011)...Newberry 47F (1954)
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

Clouds will decrease from W to E today as warmer air surges into the
area. This will favor high temps in the low to mid 50s over the W,
40s central and mid 30s E (colder due to southerly flow off Lake
Michigan, more persistent cloud cover and later arrival of the
warmer air).

Lows tonight are expected to be new freezing. Winds increase out of
the W (especially over the Keweenaw) tonight due to the passage of a
SFC trough associated with a shortwave. No precip is expected,
though.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

With a mean wrn trof/ern rdg upr pattern dominating in the medium/
extended range, a flow of Pacific air wl result in a period of well
above normal temps for Upr MI. There wl be several disturbances
lifting out of the wrn trof and impacting the Upr Lks as well during
this time, so overall pcpn should run above normal. The first of
these pcpn events later on Mon into Tue wl drop all rain, which
could be locally heavy. While limited mstr inflow wl restrict pcpn
associated with the passage of the next disturbance at mid week, the
strong disturbance/deep lo pres that is more likely to impact the
area at the end of the week could bring another round of heavy
mixed pcpn.

Sat ngt thru Sun ngt...Upr MI wl be dominated by a bldg upr rdg/
deep dry air downstream of upr troffing over the w that wl be
deepened as some potent shrtwvs over the Pacific dig into the wrn
states. Although a hi pres rdg extending fm Hudson Bay thru the
Great Lks states wl dominate the sfc pattern, h85 temps rising fm
about 0C at 12Z Sun to arnd 4C over the w half by 00Z Mon as well as
a good deal of sunshine wl support well above normal temps,
including max temps on Sun that reach at least near 50 away fm lk
moderation. But light winds under the sfc rdg axis wl allow for lk
breeze dvlpmnt and sgnft cooling closer to the shores that hold hi
temps in the 30s. There could be some fog on Sun ngt over mainly the
e half with lgt winds under the slowly passing rdg axis that wl
support lower min temps in the 20s. Strengthening sly flow over the
w that holds up the min temps there wl limit the potential for fog
there.

Mon into Tue...Shrtwv energy lifting out of the wrn trof wl support
a sfc lo pres moving fm the nrn Plains toward Hudson Bay. After some
sunshine on Mon mrng, there wl be thickening clds under the incrsg
deep sly flow/waa btwn the retreating sfc hi pres and the lo passing
to the w. Since the lo pres wl be moving to the w of Upr MI, pcpn
that falls under the associated slowly passing warm conveyor belt
mstr ribbon wl fall as rain as h85 temps are fcst to rise up to
8C. Pwats rising aos an inch and slow moving warm conveyor belt
could result in some locally heavy ra. Depending on how quickly
winds diminish late Mon night into Tue, there could also be some
at least locally dense fog later Mon ngt into Tue over mainly the w
after the warm conveyor belt shifts to the e, allowing for mid lvl
drying after the steadier ra diminishes over the melting sn pack.
Arrival of vigorous mid lvl drying/sfc hi pres on Tue wl cause the
ra to diminish w-e. The return of more sunshine in the presence of
h85 temps arnd 5C should allow max temps to rise aoa 50 away fm lk
moderation.

Tue ngt-Wed ngt...Another shrtwv emerging fm the mean wrn trof is
fcst to ride ewd thru the Upr Lks. Although mstr inflow wl be
limited, fcst 12hr h5 hgt falls aoa 100m on cyc side of supporting
h3 upr jet axis and rather sharp cyc flow along attendant cold fnt
that passes on Wed wl support at least a chc of some showers. Since
h85 temps are fcst to fall no lower than -2C to -5C on Wed ngt
behind the fropa, there wl be no lk effect pcpn.

Thu/Fri...Another potent, incrsgly negatively tilted shrtwv and deep
sfc lo pres are fcst to lift newd fm the Plains toward the Upr Lks.
Although there have been some sgnft model differences on the fcst
track and intensity of this disturbance/lo pres, the 12Z guidance,
with the support of the 00Z GFS ensemble mean, has come into better
agreement showing a trend toward a deeper sfc lo tracking farther to
the nw. Raised fcst temps a bit to reflect this trend. But there
remain some timing differences, with the faster 12Z GFS showing pcpn
arriving as soon as Thu aftn as compared to the 12Z Cndn model that
indicates pcpn wl hold off until Fri aftn. The trend toward a
deeper, farther nw track would support more mixed pcpn changing to
mainly ra. Wl retain extended model consensus fcst for now.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 119 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

Could see sct MVFR cigs late tonight into Sat morning at IWD and
CMX. Also there is potential for light fog late tonight at SAW.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There
is potential for LLWS at KSAW late tonight into Sat morning.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 435 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2017

No gales or heavy freezing spray is expected in the forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...Titus



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