Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 171101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
701 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 201 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Upper level flow out of the wnw will continue through this afternoon
before a trough moves through the northern plains tonight. Quiet and
warm weather will continue and made very few changes to the going

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Overall, the main weather concerns through the end of this week will
be the unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty afternoon winds,
especially on Wednesday. Then the attention turns towards an active
period for precipitation and a cool down this weekend into early
next week.

Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front temperatures are
expected to climb 15 to 20 degrees above normal as low-level warm
air advection spreads northward across Upper Michigan. Little
moisture ahead of this front will allow skies to remain mostly
clear, with prime conditions for diurnal mixing throughout the day.
The combination of increasing low-level shear and a strengthening
pressure gradient will allow for south-southwesterly winds to become
strong and gusty across much of the area. Some locations could see
wind gusts approach and/or exceed 35 to 40 mph at times. Wednesday
night into Thursday, the above mentioned cold front is progged to
push eastward across the area. This will give way to increasing
cloud cover, but no precipitation is expected. A much drier airmass
will then advect across the region allowing dew points to drop down
into the 20s. Therefore, there is the potential for a chilly, fall
morning on Thursday. However, this will be dependent on how quickly
winds come down behind the front. The cold air advection behind the
front will drop temperatures down into the upper 50s to lower 60s
even though ample sunshine is expected on Thursday. Also, the cooler
air aloft and ample sunshine, will give way to breezy westerly winds
through a good portions of the day. A few locations could see gusts
upwards of 20 to 25 mph.

Friday we will see the unseasonably warm temperatures return as
strong warm air advection lifts northeast across the region.
Temperatures are expected to climb 15 to 20 degrees above normal,
and possible even a bit warming in some locations that see
additional warming due to downsloping effects. The warm air
advection will foster the development of strong upper-level ridging
across the region. Ample sunshine is expected in response, along
with another day with breezy winds. Upstream of the region, across
the Western CONUS longwave troughing will come onshore and begin to
quickly track towards the central CONUS.

This weekend, the above mentioned longwave trough will continue to
track eastward towards the region. The main surface low associated
with this system is expected to remain north of the area in Canada,
but as the trailing cold front tracks across the area precipitation
chances will increase from west to east. There is some uncertainty
in the arrival of this frontal boundary; however, with deeper
moisture arriving across the warm sector on Saturday afternoon and
evening, cannot rule out precipitation chances, especially across
the west. Saturday night through Sunday morning precipitation is
expected to become more widespread as the front tracks eastward
across central and eastern portions of the area. Instability will be
marginal at best, but still worth at least mentioning the potential
for some thunder. Depending on how quickly the front exits the area,
we may or may not see lingering showers across the central and east
on Sunday afternoon. Temperature wise, Saturday will be the warmest
day of the weekend as the unseasonably warm temperatures continue
prior to the frontal passage. Post frontal passage, temperatures
will drop back down closer to normal on Sunday.

Early next week, medium range models are trending towards a cool
down with temperatures running a few degrees below normal by
Tuesday. This cool down is in response to shortwave energy quickly
digging south from Canada and tracking across the Upper Great Lakes
region. This upper-level energy is progged to catch up with the
aforementioned longwave trough and slow its eastward progression.
The main surface low and upper-level energy are progged to slowly
pivot across the region; therefore, chances for precipitation will
linger on Monday and Tuesday.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 700 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

A dry air mass will dominate thru tonight, ensuring VFR conditions
continue at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. Could see some
LLWS again late tonight at IWD.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 201 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017

Expect southwest winds to 20 kts or less into tonight. Another
period of stronger southwest winds up to 30 kts is expected Wed into
Wed evening with winds becoming west later Wed night into Thu. Could
be close to gales during this period, but right now looks to stay
just below. South winds should stay 15 to 25 knots Fri into Sat
ahead of next cold front that moves through late in the weekend.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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