Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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318
FXUS63 KMQT 232245
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
545 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018

The short-term portion of the forecast will be quieter than the past
couple days with little to no impacts expected, outside of continued
snow covered roads.

The low pressure system that brought all of the wind and snow will
shift to the New England states by Wednesday afternoon. This will
act to decrease deeper moisture by this evening; however, decreasing
upslope flow into north central portions of the U.P. may allow for
some light snow showers or flurries to linger through late this
evening. Otherwise, most areas will see dry conditions tonight with
low dropping into the low teens to single digits. The exception may
be the inland west, where temps may drop into the single digits
below zero. Wednesday, cloud cover will increase from the west as a
shortwave slides into the area during the afternoon hours. Not
expecting too much in the way of precipitation, but there could be
some light snow that develops during the afternoon from around
Ironwood up through the Keweenaw Peninsula. At this point, wouldn`t
expect much more than a dusting of snow. High temperatures will
mainly be in the low to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 419 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018

Models suggest that a progressive pattern will prevail through next
weekend. Mid/upper level ridging will advance through the cntrl
CONUS to the Great Lakes from Wed into Fri as a trough moves through
the wrn CONUS. Temps will climb well above normal from Thursday into
Friday and then drop closer to normal for Sunday and Monday.
Ridging ahead of the next trough will bring warmer air toward the
region Tuesday along with a chance of light snow.

Wednesday night into Thursday, WAA will increase as the mid level
ridge move eastward and low pressure develops into the plains. With
a dry airmass upstream, no pcpn is expected as most of the WAA will
result in layer warming rather than net isentropic lift.

Friday-Saturday, a vigorous shrtwv and associated low is expected to
lift into nw Ontario by Friday night which will draw unseasonably
warm air into the region. With gusty southerly winds and 900 mb
temps to near 6C, expect highs into the lowers, with some mid 40s
possibly for downslope flow locations. The models have trended
toward a faster frontal passage Friday night which will bring
drier air into the region. However, wsw winds should still provide
enough mixing to keep temps at or above freezing. There may be
some light rain showers changing to snow Saturday behind the front
as a weak shortwave moves through, but with limited moisture
inflow/availability, any pcpn will be minimal with only chance
POPs mentioned.

Saturday night through Tuesday, a period of nw to n flow LES will be
possible as 850 mb temps drop into the -15C to -18C range. Any LES
should taper off toward Monday as sfc and mid level ridging build
into the region. Strengthening WAA will again support potential for
light snow Tuesday. There may be enough moisture inflow to support
some light accumulations.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 544 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018

Conditions will continue to imrpove at each TAF site as lake effect
snow showers end, but lake clouds will hang on in the central and
east the longest.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 312 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018

Winds will diminish below 20 knots tonight through Thursday before
increasing to southeast winds to 20 to 30 knots Friday, especially
across the east. There could be a few gale force gusts to 35 knots
east half Friday afternoon. Winds will then shift west to 20 to 30
knots across the entire lake Friday night into Saturday, before
shifting to the north and northwest on Sunday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     LSZ265>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC



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