000
FXUS63 KMQT 111842
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
242 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX
AND A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WITH A RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST. THERE IS
ALSO A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS WILL HELP
TO CARVE OUT A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WED.

NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE SAME THING AS WELL. WITH
THE COLDER AIR COMING IN AND THE DYNAMICS COMING THROUGH...HAVING
SOME POPS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN
SEEM GOOD AND KEPT IN SOME POPS TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING FOR THOSE
AREAS. HIGHEST POPS WOULD BE IN THE NORTHEAST WIND UPSLOPE FAVORED
AREAS OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AND WENT LIKELY THERE. NO REAL BIG CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER EXCEPT REMOVED
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THEN AND
SHOULD DRY OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH PLENTY OF ICE COVERAGE
ON LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE CREATED
SOME GAPS IN THE ICE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...NOT THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH ASSISTANCE
TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EVEN THOUGH 900MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
-22C. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 3-4KFT...WOULDN/T EXPECT
THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE TOO STRONG AND ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE CLOUD BEING ABOVE THE DGZ. DID SLOWLY
DIMINISH THE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MOISTURE
DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOW AND WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH
THE MODELS SHOWING THE MOISTURE REMAINING BELOW THE STRENGTHENING
INVERSION FROM THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WONDERING IF CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL). THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

STILL LOOKS TO BE A VERY COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLDEST
VALUES OF -10F TO -18F OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AND THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO OVER THE WEST HALF. WOULD EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM OVER THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND
MID CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN UNDER WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. GEM/ECMWF/NAM CONSISTENT ON SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WITH THIS WAA ON THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE
THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF THIS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WILL TREND VALUES UP TO CHANCES AND THEN DIMINISH THEM AS
THEY HEAD EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE ICE CRYSTAL AREA TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MIGHT
SEE UP TO A HALF INCH TOWARDS IRONWOOD AND THEN DIMINISHING AMOUNTS
HEADING EAST.

BEHIND THIS PRECIPITATION...FOCUS TURNS TO THE LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG AT 18Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON THE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS NOW
WELL OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH IN-TURN CONTROLS THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FARTHEST NORTH (ALONG WITH RECENT RUNS
OF THE UKMET) AND RUNNING THE LOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE
GEM HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. ALL
IN ALL...THESE DIFFERENCES WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON THE
LAND CWA PRECIPITATION...SINCE THE WAA PRECIP WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE
LOOKING FOR ANOTHER REALLY WARM DAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AREA WILL SEE
COLDER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE DAY. THUS...EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE ARE ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE THIS ARRIVES...WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD SURGE AND WITH SOME GAPS STARTING TO SHOW
IN THE ICE NEAR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO GO
WITH MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WITH THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER
AND POTENTIAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR IDEA AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THAT PUTS CHANCES OVER THE
FAVORED NORTHWEST AREAS IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION TO TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST-NORTHERLY WIND AREAS FOR
SATURDAY. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND HAVE
DIMINISHED POPS HEADING INTO SUNDAY (EVENTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND -17C). WITH THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT...SHOULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES
CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB ZERO
LOWS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HAVE TRENDED VALUES DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA. SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SEEMS LIKE A
GOOD START AT THIS POINT...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
COLD SPOTS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY...BUT IT/S INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE RETURN OF COLD AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AIDED BY SOME DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR STRATOCU DECK AT ALL
3 LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS EVNG WILL BRING SOME SHSN TO THE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR OVER EVEN LIMITED GAPS IN THE
LAKE SUPERIOR ICE COVER AND UPSLOPE INTO SAW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
-SHSN. DRIER AIR STARTS TO COME IN BY LATE WED MORNING AND SHOULD
SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS AT IWD AND CMX AND PUT THEM BOTH INTO VFR
LATE WED MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO GALES IN SIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07