000
FXUS63 KMQT 292203
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
503 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BLOWN THROUGH. TEMPS ARE FALLING STEADILY INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WEST AND IN THE 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NW WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH CLOSE TO LK SUPERIOR AND EVEN ABOVE 30 MPH
FARTHER INLAND. ATTN IS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOW VSBY TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INCREASES. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING ECHOES THIS AFTN. HAD
SOME FZDZ INTO EARLY AFTN...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE FADED NOW AS COLDER
AIR AT H9-H85 SPILLS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS FM
12Z SHOWED INVERSIONS AROUND H9 OR MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE IS A
WAVE ALOFT PRODUCING LGT SNOW OVER MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN
LK SUPERIOR AND THIS DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
TO SEE INCREASING LES IN NW-NNW FLOW AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MAJORITY OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ SO
THAT WILL HELP OUT ACCUMS...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACT TO BREAK
APART SNOWFLAKES. SMALLER FLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR
VSBY ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE ICE IS JUST OFFSHORE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVY FOR
ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS EXPECTED INCREASE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PEOPLE WILL STILL BE OUT
TRAVELING. MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES PUSH UP
TOWARD 1 INCH PER HOUR. EVEN SO...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO LATE
TONIGHT WILL ONLY TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5 INCHES. BASED ON SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONE WOULD NOT HAVE WENT WITH THE ADVY...BUT GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VSBY ALONG WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS
THOUGHT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO HAVE ADVY OUT FOR WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. VSBY AT TIMES THIS EVENING MAY FALL TO ONE-
QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG LK SUPERIOR WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE LOWERING
INVERSIONS AND DRYING MOVING IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVING IN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING TREND. BY LATE TONIGHT ONLY LES OF NOTE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE SNOWBELTS OF ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTY...AT A
DIMINISHED STATE COMPARED TO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT KIND OF
TRICKY GIVEN FLOW OF LAKE CLOUDS STILL AROUND WHICH WILL OFFSET COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SOME ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLEARING
LATE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FM LK SUPERIOR IN THE SCNTRL AND ALSO IN THE
FAR EAST.

LES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FAR
NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY BY AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WEST WITH THE
HIGH MOVING IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH LOW TO MID TEENS AS THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ARE REPLACED WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS TIED TO WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD PATTERN IS SETTING IN FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FCST AS THE FLOW OVER NAMERICA WILL FEATURE A W COAST RIDGE AND
CNTL/ERN TROF. THE RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A STEADY FEED OF CANADIAN AIR. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD WITH
TEMPS BLO TO AT TIMES MUCH BLO NORMAL...TEMPS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR PCPN...THIS IS A DRY PATTERN WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC PCPN EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL HOWEVER
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. MOST THE LES WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL BOOST DUE TO
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK FROM NW MN IN THE EVENING TO NRN LWR MI BY SAT MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SWING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. UPPER MI WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY THE WEAKER SRN
DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MODEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS UPR MI FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE SRN SHORTWAVE...ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
INFLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. STILL...WILL PROBABLY SEE AN AREA OF -SN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...FCST WILL SHOW GENERALLY
HIGHER END CHC POPS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES. SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS SAT MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE THE
TYPICAL QUICK BURST OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ONSHORE. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -20 TO
-25C BY 00Z SUN...QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE DIFFLUENT/ANTICYCLONIC
925MB NORTHERLY FLOW AND A FALLING INVERSION TO 4KFT WILL LIMIT LES
INTENSITY AFTER THE BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 TO POSSIBLY 3
INCH RANGE. AFTER EARLY HIGHS...TEMPS WILL FALL THRU THE DAY AS
BRISK N TO NW WINDS USHER ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...UPPER MI WILL BE DOMINATED BY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING WNW. LOW INVERSION
AROUND 4KFT COMBINED WITH DGZ BEING MOSTLY ELIMINATED BY THE COLD
AIR MASS WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 1-2 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 3 INCHES PER 12HRS. ONLY
ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND BREEZE TO PUSH OUT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM AROUND MUNISING EASTWARD LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS
PRES GRADIENT/WIND SLACKEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...A MESOLOW COULD SPIN
UP OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE
SHORE BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING...DEPENDING ON THE CIRCULATION
STRUCTURE. SAT NIGHT COULD BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY OVER THE E AS
CLOUDS/LES COULD SHIFT W IF WINDS BECOME EASTERLY DUE TO DRAINAGE
OF COLD AIR INTO THAT AREA OFF ONTARIO.

MON...LES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS
BACK DUE TO HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE AFTN...LES MAY ONLY BE AFFECTING
THE KEWEENAW.

TUE-THU...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA. IF THIS IS A TREND
THAT HOLDS UP...THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
LAKE ENANCEMENT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WHATEVER HAPPENS...A SOLID SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30C WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WED INTO EARLY THU. WITH LOSS OF DGZ AND
LOW INVERSIONS SETTING UP BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LES ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT WED INTO THU. ALTHOUGH LIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIR WILL RESULT
IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE VERY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
LOWEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WED/THU.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT IS EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
20-30 KTS IN GUSTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A
SWITCH BACK TO MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF AND ON
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX THIS AFTN WITH A WINDOW
FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTN AS LIFT INCREASES
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ARRIVE FM THE NORTHWEST. AT KSAW...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MIX OF
SNOW AND FZDZ THIS AFTN BEFORE COLDER AIR SWITCHES THE PRECIP TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT DIMINISHING AND
ENDING TREND TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AT ALL THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. VSBY MAINLY MVFR AT
ALL THE SITES THOUGH MAY DIP TO IFR BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR OR VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. NW-N GALES TO 45 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN THESE DIMINISH TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AS WELL. GALE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH BLO GALES BY AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. NEXT PUSH OF GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS OVER
EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR AND THERE WILL BE MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 30 KTS OR LESS OVER LK
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264-
     266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA