Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 291949
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.

TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW PUSHING IN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY...HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL SLIDE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THE FAR
WESTERN U.P. STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST
AND A DRIER SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM ONTARIO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT GENERALLY IN THE 60S BY THE CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER/LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST. THE LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO MID 40S FOR THE INLAND
LOCATION. NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 50S. ONE
CAVEAT IS A SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MODELS HAVE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING HUDSON BAY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW AND WILL PUSH CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN U.P. FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EASTERN U.P. BY
SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
SCARCE WITH THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE GENERALLY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE FOURTH OF JULY ALLOWING FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD
OFF ON THE DETAILS OF THAT SYSTEM FOR NOW AS IT IS AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH THAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

EXPECT SOME SHRA/TS TO IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW THIS AFTN WITH OCNL
MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL. ALTHOUGH A TS COULD HIT CMX AS WELL...THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/A LINGERINGTS WILL ARRIVE TNGT WITH THE CLOSER
APRCH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE/COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR. AFTER THIS FNT
PASSES THE SITES...EXPECT A WSHFT TO THE NNW TO BRING IN SOME LO
CLDS/FOG ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. BY LATE MRNG...DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIKELY LEAD TO
IMPROVEMENT AT CMX AND IWD...BUT SAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU 30/18Z
WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER LLVL AIR AND A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC



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