Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 200722
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
322 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

UNDER A CLEAR SKY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
/PARTICULARLY W/ AND PW VALUES AROUND 0.25IN...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE FROM ONTONAGON THROUGH THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE MORE
STEADY NW FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EXITING LOW OVER E CENTRAL
QUEBEC HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS DRAMATICALLY OVER FAR E UPPER
MI.

HIGHS TODAY WILL REBOUND 10-20F ABOVE WHERE THEY ENDED UP YESTERDAY
AS WE BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MID MAY WX. 850MB TEMPS WILL
IMPROVE TO 3-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
MIXING TO 5-7KFT. HIGHS NEAR THE SHORELINES MAY REMAIN IN THE
50S...WITH AREAS INLAND REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. A FEW FCST
MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGHER CLOUD COVER...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING N FROM CENTRAL AND S WI DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

AS FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS S ONTARIO /JUST N
OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ AT 00Z THURSDAY SINK ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA
AND JUST INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THERE COULD BE A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AND PW
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 0.5IN. INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST...STILL KEEPING LOW TO MID 30S OVER
THE E THIRD AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
/WITHIN A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SFC/ AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BE 20-25KTS. THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REALIZED AT THE SFC THANKS TO A STRONG INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A QUIET FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...DUE TO THE AREA BEING BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. WHILE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BRUSHED BY A FEW
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY
PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL
(ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR). THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ITEM OF NOTE
IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LOOK LIMITED...WILL
JUST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A
STRAY SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY (MORE LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN) WITH SOME HELP FROM A LAKE BREEZE OFF THE BAY
OF GREEN BAY. DON/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE POPS FOR
ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CITY OF MENOMINEE...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE HIGHS SLOWLY
RISE TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY (DUE TO THE HIGH
DEPARTING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO DEVELOP.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO IOWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST TREND IS FOR THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
LIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THOUGHT YESTERDAY...SO WILL TREND
POPS UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK DURING THAT
PERIOD...WITH THE AREA GENERALLY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEK
STILL LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED...AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WEAKENS AND LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SAW WILL
SEE A NORTHEAST LAKE BREEZE AGAIN WITH WEAK WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
AROUND 25KTS OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK TO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE A E-W ORIENTED TROUGH NEARS FROM ONTARIO. THE LONG FETCH OF SW
WINDS OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME GUSTS
NEARING 20KTS OVER N CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...AND SINK INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE MANITOBA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE EXITING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKENING TROUGH MAY SINK ACROSS N LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY...BUT THE IMPACT WIND WISE LOOKS MINIMAL.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF



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