Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 141049
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
549 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge on the west coast and a
closed low in the southern Rockies and a trough in the upper Great
Lakes this morning. There is also a shortwave in Manitoba that is
heading southeast. This shortwave dives southeast and forms a closed
500 mb low near Thunder Bay by this afternoon with this low heading
to Sault Ste Marie by this evening and to the lower Great Lakes by
Thu morning.

Lake effect will get going today and continue into tonight. With
combo of snow amounts and increasing wind, decided to go with winter
weather advisories for snow and blowing snow this afternoon into
tonight for northwest and west wind lake effect snow belts. Overall,
did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 438 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

No major weather systems to note through most of the extended. Lake
effect snow associated with a passing shortwave trough will steadily
diminish over the west half of the U.P. Wednesday, while lingering
through late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning over the eastern
portions of the U.P warmer air slides in alof and inversion heights
quickly rise from west to east. Not really expecting much more than
a couple additional inches of snow, mainly over the eastern U.P.
through this time period, with the heaviest being during the day
Wednesday. Blowing snow will continue to be an issue over the
eastern poritons of the area through Wednesday evening as the
pressure gradient takes a bit longer to relax.

The next thing to note is the increasing warm air aloft across the
area toward the end of the work week and into the weekend. 850mb
temperatures are progged to warm to around 5C to 9C above zero by
the weekend and into early next week. This will help push surface
temperatures up into the 40 from Friday into early next week.
weekend. Some guidance even has some 50 degree readings over the
over the weekend into next week. The greatest likelihood of this
happening will be in the favored south to southwest wind downslope
areas Friday and again on Saturday.

The next good chance of precipitation will be toward the end of the
period Monday night into next Tuesday as a broad area of low
pressure and cold front approach the region. At this point, there
are differences in timing of the precipiation and overall coverage,
as expected this far out, but it does look that time period will be
unsettled. Being on the warm side of the low, thermal profiles would
suggest that the main precipitation type will be in the form of a
chilly rain with lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 30s to low
40s.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 549 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

Sct -shsn will develop as a vigorous disturbance drops se into the
Upper Great Lakes. While conditions will go to  MVFR at KIWD/KSAW by
this afternoon, KCMX should see conditions fall to IFR as winds
gusting over 30kt add blsn to the vis restriction.
KIWD may see conditions fall to IFR this evening as snow showers
increase for a time with more favorable upslope wind off Lake
Superior.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 412 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

Winds will increase to gale force by late this afternoon over most
of Lake Superior as a strong upper disturbance slides into the Upper
Great Lakes and tightens the pressure gradient through tonight.
Since colder air will be arriving at the same time, heavy freezing
spray warnings were hoisted for tonight and Wednesday for most of
Lake Superior.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for MIZ001>004-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for MIZ006-007-085.

Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LSZ264>267.

  Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     LSZ266-267.

  Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     LSZ264-265.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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