Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 232112
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
512 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER NAMERICA.
IN THE NRN STREAM...A TROF EXTENDS THRU HUDSON BAY INTO SE CANADA
BTWN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND A CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
JUST SE OF GREENLAND. IN THE SRN STREAM...A TROF IS OVER THE WRN
CONUS WITH RIDGING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. JET STREAK DEVELOPING IN THE
CONFLUENCE BTWN THE SRN STREAM RIDGE AND NRN STREAM TROF OVER SE
CANADA WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE WET WEATHER SETTING UP
ACROSS UPPER MI FOR THE NEXT 36-48HRS. WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE WRN
CONUS TROF...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME SRPEADING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS HAS LED TO SCT -SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM ND ACROSS NE MN
THIS AFTN. MID CLOUDS ARE PEELING SE FROM THAT AREA ACROSS UPPER MI.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS HAVE WORKED TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
BUILDING OF MIXING HEIGHTS...SFC DWPTS HAVE STILL FALLEN DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR W AND CNTRL
UPPER MI.

A GOOD PATTERN FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 36-48HRS AS FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN A SHARP
BAROCLINIC ZONE RESULTING FROM COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS SE CANADA
UNDER NRN STREAM TROF AND WARM AIR PUSHING TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM WRN CONUS TROF. IN
FACT...MOST OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE MDT TO HVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY
THE TIME THIS WET PERIOD WRAPS UP MON NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK WILL BE A KEY MECHANISM FOR PCPN GENERATION AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE WILL PROVIDE LARGER SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA.
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...850MB FRONT SETTING UP IN THE VCNTY OF THE
MI/WI BORDER WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT UNDER
PERSISTENT FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO
AROUND 1 INCH (200-250PCT OF NORMAL) WILL THEN SUPPORT THE EXPECTED
MDT/HVY PCPN AMOUNTS. UTILIZED A MIX OF ALL AVBL MODELS TO CONSTRUCT
POPS/PCPN AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT/SUN AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
WELL CLUSTERED ON QPF AND TIMING ONSET OF RAIN. PCPN DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT MAY BE DELAYED MORE SO THAN REFLECTED IN FCST DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA ATTM. BY 00Z MON...EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM AROUND ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH OVER THE NRN KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND NE LUCE COUNTY TO 0.90-1.25 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE W
AND CNTRL FCST AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...WARMEST FAR W. WITH EXPECTATION OF RAIN
PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN MOST AREAS...LOWERED MAX TEMPS
SOME FOR SUN. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW AND NCNTRL TO
MAINLY THE LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR AN ONGOING ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER. SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FGEN...WAA...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING A
CONTINUOUS FEED OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MN TRACKING TOWARD THE
AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING RIGHT ENTRANCE TO AN UPPER
JET WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL QPF SUNDAY NIGHT ADVERTISES A STRIPE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT THINKING PUTS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG A LINE FROM FAR NW WI TO NORTHERN LAKE
MI...INCLUDING IWD...IMT...AND ESC. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THIS SET-UP. IN FACT...LAST
WEEK...LONG TERM GUIDANCE PLACED ALL OF UPPER MI ON THE COLD AND DRY
SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS...HAVE CONTINUED
THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHEST QPF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...MID-LEVEL
FGEN WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WEAKER FORCING AND DRIER
AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE...THE PROSPECTS OF
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS DRYING AND SOME COLDER AIR WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH ON MONDAY...PRECIP MAY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH A BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER...AND
WITH LATE APRIL DAYTIME HEATING PRESENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
MORE THAN UP TO A SLUSHY INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES
DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST STORM TOTAL QPF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PLACES A SWATH OF 2
TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE TO ST
IGNACE. AMOUNTS QUICKLY DROP OFF TO THE NORTH...WITH LESS THAN A
HALF INCH EXPECTED FOR COPPER HARBOR. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF QPF
PLACEMENT AMONG MODELS AND ENSEMBLES...IT MUST BE NOTED THAT
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY PERIOD...FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE SOMEWHAT EASED. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE TO NO
GREENUP...SOILS WILL BECOME SATURATED QUICKLY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
AN SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EDGES FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THRU THE EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW UNDER ONLY BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU SUN. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS STEADIER RAIN ARRIVES...REACHING IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z. CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FURTHER
TO LIFR DURING THE MORNING HRS...PARTICULARLY AT KCMX/KSAW UNDER
UPSLOPE WINDS. VIS SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR SUN MORNING...BUT COULD FALL
TO IFR AT TIMES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

A CLASSIC SET UP FOR BRISK E TO NE WINDS IS SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A WEAK LOW PRES WAVE TRACKS ALONG A FRONT S OF
UPPER MI. WINDS INITIALLY UNDER 20KT THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY RAMP
UP TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS THEN INCREASE
MORE NOTABLY ACROSS THE LAKE SUN THRU MON MORNING...REACHING GALES
OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUN MORNING THRU MON AFTN AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING ENHANCE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT PART OF THE LAKE. ACROSS THE REST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING...BUT MORE SO TUE AFTN/NIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. E TO NE
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT WILL PREVAIL WED/THU. GIVEN THE E TO NE
WIND DIRECTION...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR ON
BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



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