Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 190842
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
342 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Pretty incredible to have such clear skies this time of year and it
not to be bitter cold. Sure is not close to cold anywhere across
Upper Michigan today. A bit chilly on the breezy Keweenaw with gusts
over 30 mph at times and temps *only* into the middle 40s. Elsewhere
temps have risen well into the 50s and even over 60 degrees in
multiple locations over cntrl cwa. Readings in Marquette city near
60 degrees have already surpassed the record for the date of 52F set
in 1954. That is a notable record as period of record for Marquette
city goes back to 1871. Record at NWS Marquette has also been broken
and additional records have at least been unofficially set at Iron
Mtn, Escanaba, Menominee, Munising, Manistique and Newberry. Lake
breezes have tried to sneak into Marquette and Munising but overall
the stiff W winds have kept them just offshore.

Skies are mostly sunny with no low clouds at all. Models that showed
that a few days ago were quite overdone. The lowest clouds are to
the north and east of Lk Superior. For the last two days the GEM
model low-level RH fields have perfomed the best and followed those
into Sun. Decent amount of high clouds are spilling across the
northern Plains toward western Great Lakes as ridge aloft flattened
last 24 hours. Expect mid clouds to increase by late tonight into
Sun with skies possibly becoming mostly cloudy on Sun. Dwpnts are
higher today than Fri so could see some fog as temps fall to the upr
20s to low 30s.

As ridge aloft builds just west of Upper Lakes on Sun and sfc ridge
slowly moves toward western Great Lakes, low-level winds may turn
just enough northwest to bring portion of lower clouds over northern
Ontario across Lk Superior and maybe into the eastern cwa, mainly
near Lk Superior. Overall with mid-high clouds streaming across and
the potential for low clouds, there should be much more cloud cover
over the area on Sun compared to Fri and today. High temps will show
quite a range with onshore winds/lake breezes near Great Lakes over
Keweenaw and east half keeping readings in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Thus, locations like Big Bay, Marquette, Munising, Escanaba will go
from near 60 degrees today to maybe not cracking 40 degrees on Sun.
Meanwhile, based on mixing to 925mb over interior west with no
influence off the Great Lakes, went with max temps into the lower to
perhaps mid 50s there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

Highs Mon will be in the 40s to low 50s. An upper trough and
associated SFC trough will pass through late Mon through Mon night,
bringing somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.30-0.75" of rain
(greatest potential for the higher amounts are over the south
central). Could also see some thunder, but chances are low enough to
keep that out of the forecast for now. The warmth will continue
through mid-week with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s expected Tue
and Wed. Some uncertainty with the flood threat remains next week.
With the warmth and rain, do expect river levels to gradually rise
through next week, but not seeing any significant potential for
flooding right now. Greatest QPF is expected where the lightest snow
pack exists and overall snow pack liquid is below normal in all but
the WNW-NW snowbelts. Will have to continue monitoring flood
potential over the next few days.

Plenty of uncertainty with precip mid-week as models depict a
clipper shortwave moving through the region. Thermal fields support
most or all associated QPF as rain, with maybe some snow on the back
side.

Attention then turns to late week into the weekend with potential
for a strong storm system and trailing colder air supporting LES.
Not confident in any details at this point as models differ run to
run and model to model, but do generally show a similar idea.
Definitely lots of room for changes in track, timing, and strength
that could lead to significant changes to the forecast. Certainly
worth keeping an eye on, but will probably not have much more
confidence in details until around Thursday when the system moves E
of the CO Rockies.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period as
mid/high clouds move through the region. Although winds will become
northerly this afternoon, models have trended dry enough with the
low levels to minimize potential for lower clouds. However, some
clouds near MVFR may develop this evening at SAW as winds become
SE. Some MVFR fog may also be possible by late evening.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 324 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

No heavy freezing spray is expected into most of next week. SE winds
to 30 kts with a few gale gusts are expected late Mon into Mon night
over eastern sections. Otherwise winds should stay 25 kts or less
through the period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA



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