Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 171829
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
229 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH ITS ASSOC UPPER JET MAX PASSING ACROSS THE TIP
OF JAMES BAY. 850 MB FGEN ALONG THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING
BAND OF SHRA FROM JUST NORTH OF MN BDR EXTENDING ACROSS NCNTRL AND
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS NOTED ON CANADIAN RADAR MOSIAC. SOME OF THESE
SHRA HAVE BRUSHED THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AND LOW
CLOUDS HAVE REACHED INTO KCMX AS WELL. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE CWA
HAS STAYED DRY THUS FAR.

TODAY...AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE NRN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR LATER THIS MORNING IT WILL HELP DRIVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
UPPER MI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. MODELS SHOW
SUPPORTING 850 MB FGEN FORCING FOR SHRA ACTIVITY GENERALLY WEAKENING
AND MOVING EAST BY LATE MORNING WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC
UPPER JET MAX AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SINCE THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST FGEN FORCING GENERALLY
STAYING OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OR NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH LATE
MORNING HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHC/LIKELY POPS WELL NORTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS BRUSHING
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE FAR NE CWA. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
STAY GENERALLY DRY TODAY AS FGEN WILL BE WEAKENING QUICKLY ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

SINCE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY FOR ALL BUT THE
NW QUARTER OF THE CWA...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S OVER
SCNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS (AROUND
50F) ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TEMPS ACROSS THE N WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE AFTN UNDER A BRISK DEVELOPING NRLY WIND AND
STRATUS DECK FOLLOWING FROPA.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND
BECOMING CENTERED NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. PWATS LESS THAN 30 PCT OF NORMAL OR LESS THAN
.25 INCH WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT
FREEZING TO BLO FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE
UPPER MI. HAVE POSTED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE INTERIOR WRN COUNTIES
AND HAVE FROST ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KEWEENAW COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. THU WILL START WITH
LINGERING COLD AND FROST FROM WED NIGHT AS A 1025MB SFC HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NE OF THE CWA AT 12Z THU. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 1030MB...BY 12Z FRI WHILE A SFC
TROUGH MOVES TO THE DAKOTAS. RETURN FLOW/WAA WILL JUST BE STARTING
LATE THU...SO DRY AIR LINGERING OVER THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON THU. TEMPS ON THU WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW
INCREASES...BUT MOST PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI WHEN AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ESTABLISHED...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BEGINS
A TREK ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/RETURN FLOW
INCREASES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE START TIME OF PRECIP
FRI IN THE WAA REGIME...BUT HOW THINGS SHAPE UP ON FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THE END TIME OF PRECIP ON SAT NIGHT OR SUN IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...MODELS DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF PHASING
THE THREE WAVES OVER THE AREA. WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE GREATER
CERTAINTY ON END TIME OF PRECIP UNTIL CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. HAVE
THE GREATEST POPS FROM LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. CONTINUED TO HAVE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT WHEN SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THOUGH.
850MB TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 15C FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...RESULTING
IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S /WHICH IS AROUND AVERAGE/.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLDER SUN THROUGH TUE UNDER STRONGER NW FLOW
ALONG AND INCOMING SFC HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS MON AND TUE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING
ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WI AND N LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS HAS RESULTED IN BR OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER MI...AND LIFR CEILINGS AT IWD AND SAW.
CURRENT LIFR CEILINGS AT CMX AND SAW WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT TRACKING OF THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGS VFR CEILINGS BACK BY
AROUND 21Z AT CMX...AND BY 23Z AT SAW AND IWD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
TURN MORE NE TO E OVERNIGHT...AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN. EXPECT WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS WITH VFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...UNDER VFR CEILINGS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY 10-20KT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE LAKE
EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL GET A PUSH S LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 15-25KT FOR
AT LEAST A TIME. OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...COASTAL
CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING MAY RESULT IN WINDS BRIEFLY AS HIGH AS 30KT.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20KT TONIGHT/THU AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES OVER NRN ONTARIO IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE HIGH
THEN SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES FROM
THE W...S WINDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT/FRI. WITH S WINDS A MORE
FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAN
OVER THE W...WINDS SHOULD REACH 20-30KT OVER THE ERN LAKE ON FRI.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SAT AS THE TROF ARRIVES OVER THE
UPPER LAKES...W TO NW WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS
20-30KT BEHIND THE TROF SAT NIGHT/SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ003-005>007-012>014-085.

  FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS






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