Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 270509
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT AGAIN TODAY...BUT WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SFC ARE QUITE
LIGHT. 12Z RAOBS FM CWPL/KINL/KGRB CONTINUED TO SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THROUGH H7...BUT IT WAS COOLER H7-H5 AT CWPL AND RAP
SHOWED THIS COOLING WAS MORE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC VERSUS FARTHER
SOUTH OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES. CU SEEMS TO BEAR THIS OUT...WITH
MORE DEVELOPED CU AND SHRA/TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF LK SUPERIOR.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR EASTERN CWA VCNTY OF LUCE COUNTY. DEEPER
MOISTURE LACKING THOUGH SO ONLY HAVE SEEN ISOLD SHOWERS IN THAT
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WILL KEEP WITH ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA
SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BEING BROACHED IN SOME AREAS. MID SHIFT SAID
IT WELL...MOST AREAS STAY DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING WITH
LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG. HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS
OVERALL DRIER THAN 24 HR AGO WITH SOME LOCALES OVER WESTERN CWA
MIXING OUT TO MID 40S DWPNTS THIS AFTN. THIS DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FOG AS LAST NIGHT SUGGEST FOG COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.
THINK MARINE ADVECTION FOG OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL ALSO BE LIMITED WITH
LESS OF A GRADIENT NORTHEAST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS MAIN SFC
FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTN. CNTRL AND EAST SEEMS TO BE FAVORED FOR
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...BUT AGAIN PRETTY WEAK SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN.
NAM MORE MOIST IN LOW-LEVELS WITH DWPNTS 3-5F HIGHER THAN GFS...INDICATES
HIGHER INSTABILITY THAN GFS OR GEM-REGIONAL. FORCING FM SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION HELPING TO DEVELOP CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA
FM CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN TO NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST
AND NORTH OF UPR GREAT LAKES UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. LIMITED FORCING
AND PRESUMED OVERPLAYING OF NAM INSTABIILTY LEADS TO KEEPING A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTN. WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A BIT
WARMER H85 TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY...EXPECT MANY INTERIOR AREAS TO BE
INTO THE UPR 70S WITH AN 80 DEGREE READING LIKELY OVER INTERIOR WEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE.
THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AND KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW AVERAGE.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THE ECMWF REMAINED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST WITH
THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
EXPECT THE GREATEST PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE WRN
CWA...IN LINE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING AND POSITION OF THE MOISTURE
AXIS. WITH FCST MUCAPE VALUES AOA 1K J/KG...SCT TSRA WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THE TRACK IS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST...LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO
SUPPORT SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER THE ERN CWA.

MON THROUGH WED...ANOTHER SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BOOSTING POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT TSRA. SOME LEFTOVER
PCPN MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUE...PER ECMWF. OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD DRIER WEATHER. WITH CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
WED.

THU-FRI...UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF A SHRTWV
EDGING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
STRONGER SYSTEM WITH INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND GREATER QPF.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS THIS FCST PERIOD. MAY SEE A REPEAT OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
EARLY THIS MRNG AT MAINLY IWD...SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO HANDLE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE IN AND OUT GROUND FOG THAT OFTEN OCCURS AT
THIS LOCATION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO WINDS STAYING BELOW
20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS. FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE...BUT COVERAGE WILL STAY PATCHY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...- NONE -
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA



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