Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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231
FXUS63 KMQT 220853
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
453 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 452 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated an amplified pattern with a
mid/upper level trough over the western CONUS, a ridge from the
southern plains to MN and northwest Ontario, and a trough over the
east. At the surface, a ridge extended from James Bay into the
northern Great Lakes.

Today, Expect mostly sunny skies as the mid level ridge builds into
Upper Michigan. With the surface ridge sliding to the southeast,
light southerly winds will develop. However, the gradient will be
weak enough for prominent lake breezes to develop. Sunshine and
mixing through 850 mb temps from 10C-15C (east to west) will support
highs from the low to mid 80s inland west to the mid 70s east while
temps in the 60s will prevail near the Great Lakes. Minimum RH
values will also fall off into the 20 to 25 percent range inland,
again near the low end of guidance, keeping the fire danger very
high even though the winds are relatively light at 10 mph or less.

Tonight, south winds will increase over the north and west keeping
min temps in the 50s over the west and north central but in the mid
40s over the southeast where radiational cooling is more favorable.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR MONDAY...

Primary concern is with critical fire weather conditions on Mon and
convection (possibly on the stronger side, but not severe) moving in
late Mon into Mon night.

Really focused in on temps, dew points and winds for Mon. Did not
make many changes to the going wind forecast as multi-model blend
matched up well. Have winds of 10-20kts gusting to 20-30kts
(strongest west, weakest east). Increased temps to better match up
with the bias correct Regional GEM, which has been verifying the
best with max temps over the last week, then increased those temps
another degree since official forecast bias has been on the order of
-3 degrees for the last week and models are struggling to capture
the max temps. Have max temps in the 70s east half, and in the 80-87
degree range west half. Models have also be really struggling with
dew points, but the bias corrected Regional GEM and the bias
corrected ECMWF MOS have been performing best, so put a lot of
weight into those. Min dew points are forecast to be lowest at
around 38-40% over the E and around 40-44% over the W. Resulting min
RH values are 20-30% over all areas away from immediate Lake
Michigan moderation, lowest at 20-25% over most of the W half. Will
continue the Fire Weather Watch and let the next shift or two make
the assumed headline upgrade.

Most precip will stay west through 00Z Tue, with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the west and becoming more scattered as
they head E. Eastern Upper MI will probably stay dry until around
sunrise Tuesday morning. Looks like most areas will see precip Mon
night into Tuesday morning as the front moves in, but no guarantees
of a lot of precip. Some storms could be stronger as up to 1,000
J/kg of CAPE may develop with moderate shear. Given models being too
moist lately, guessing they will continue to be until we get farther
along into green up or have significant precip. Therefore, CAPE
values from models are probably too high. No severe weather expected.

The front settles through the area on Tue, which when combined with
lake breeze boundaries, should see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Depending on buildup of sfc heating and CAPE Tue
afternoon, there could be some stronger storms over mainly south
central Upper MI. Have high temps up to around 80F over the interior
W on Tue.

POPs are in the forecast each day as several upper waves may move
through. Left consensus guidance in the forecast for the extended
given more limited predictability and focus in the shorter term.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 125 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

With dry hi pres dominating this fcst period, expect VFR conditions
at all the TAF sites. Light winds will become steady out of the SSW
this evng as the pres gradient begins to tighten on the wrn flank of
the departing sfc hi pres rdg. There may be some LLWS especially at
IWD in the early mrng hrs on Mon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 452 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will keep winds under 15
knots through this afternoon. Southerly winds of up to 25 knots are
then expected tonight through Monday night as a low pressure trough
approaches from the west. The trough will stall over the Upper Great
Lakes Tuesday through Thursday, bringing winds generally under 15
knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for MIZ001>015-084-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB



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