Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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889
FXUS63 KILX 260217
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
917 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Another quiet night is on tap across central and southeast
Illinois. The diurnal clouds have largely dissipated, as have the
spotty showers/storms that were over far west-central Illinois.
Going forecast is in good shape with only minor tweaks needed for
the nighttime hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

A cold front along the the I-35 corridor is expected to
edge slowly towards our area tonight and on Tuesday keeping
most of our area unseasonably warm for another 24 to 36 hours.
The main area of showers was located along and behind the
boundary with a few of the short term models indicating some
isolated showers will be possible to its east tonight into
Tuesday morning, possibly as far east as Schuyler and Fulton
counties late this afternoon into early this evening. However,
forecast soundings in our area not very supportive of any
precipitation over far west central Illinois tonight. May add
a mention of a shower or storm in far west central IL for late
this afternoon based on the development over northeast Missouri,
but won`t extend it very far, if at all, into the evening hours.
Another mild to warm night over the forecast area with early
morning lows only dropping off into the mid 60s.

If the frontal boundary slows down any tomorrow, a few more record
highs will be broken tomorrow afternoon, especially across the east
and southeast areas just ahead of the cold front. Models continue
to indicate little in the way of rainfall over our area with only
slight chance POPs indicated over areas west of the Illinois River
on Tuesday. Warmest temps, as mentioned above, should be over east
central and southeast Illinois ahead of the slow moving front with
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s northwest to the lower 90s
roughly along and especially east of the I-55 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The much anticipated major pattern change will start to take hold
over the region starting on Wednesday allowing much cooler air to
spill southeast into the region. The initial trof and associated
cold front will start to shift to our east later Wednesday into
Wednesday night with temperatures expected to drop into the upper
40s north to the middle 50s southeast. A secondary trof is expected
to sharpen up the main longwave trof over the Great Lakes late
Thursday into Friday which will bring in some refreshingly cool air
for next weekend when we will see afternoon highs actually struggle
to get out of the 60s across the north on Saturday with early morning
lows on Sunday in the 40s across the entire forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Quiet weather is expected across the central Illinois terminals
for most, if not all, of the 00Z TAF valid time. Light winds are
expected through the period, with a gradual trend from southerly
to westerly on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area.
Minimal cloud cover is anticipated into Tuesday morning, but an
increase in clouds and VFR CIGS is expected as the day goes on. An
isolated shower/storm is possible as the front pushes into the
area, but coverage is expected to be too low to include at this
time.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Record highs for Tuesday:

Location         Tuesday
                 Sep 26
--------------   -------
Bloomington...   93/1897
Champaign.....   94/1897
Charleston....   92/1897
Danville......   91/1897
Decatur.......   96/1897
Effingham.....   93/1897
Galesburg.....   92/1897
Jacksonville..   97/1897
Lincoln.......   91/1953
Olney.........   94/1897
Peoria........   93/1897
Springfield...   92/1897

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Bak
CLIMATE...07



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