Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 150445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

ISSUED 900 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Light precipitation is steadily ending from west to east across
the forecast area late this evening. The snow has largely ended
west of the I-55 corridor, but is still falling east I-55. South
of a Taylorville to Paris line there is still a rain/snow mix falling.

Given the latest radar trends, the snow should have exit the area
to the east by midnight or 1 AM Tuesday morning. The end of the
snow will be quickly followed by a clearing trend in the skies.

Have updated forecast for latest precipitation/cloud trends. Also
made minor tweaks to the other parameters to better fit recent
hourly trends for the rest of the night.


ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

Snow has ended across the central Illinois terminals over the past
few hours, and skies are rapidly clearing now from west to east.
Expect skies to clear within the next few hours where they have
not already done so. Some diurnal cloud development is likely for
Tuesday, but expect only scattered CU for the most part. A
persistent northwest breeze will persist for much of the period
between departing low pressure and an approaching ridge of high
pressure. Winds should eventually trend light/variable Tuesday
evening as the ridge pushes in.


ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday

A period of wet snow across the east this evening, followed by a
hard freeze over a good portion of the area tonight, and across our
east Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

Large and slow moving 500 mb trof axis across the Missouri Valley
early this afternoon should gradually work its way across our area
this evening producing a period of light snow and rain. As darkness
sets in this evening, our chances for seeing some minor accumulations
increases, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area where
the precip will linger a bit longer. Still not looking for much more
than a half inch to one inch of slushy snow, mainly on grassy areas
with the precipitation shutting down as the 500 mb trof axis shifts
to our east just after midnight. Models are insistent of scouring
out the low level moisture late tonight with clearing from west to
east late this evening with our far southeast the last to clear around
dawn. 850 temperatures forecast to drop to around -10c later this
evening and based on the upstream morning low temperatures west of
the Missouri River, will continue to advertise mid 20s north to the
lower 30s southeast by dawn Tuesday. Lightest winds will be out west
and southwest late tonight and will be the area where skies will
clear out earlier than in the far southeast. The recent warm temps
over the past several days has resulted in quick green up and
rapid flowering of many trees, especially in areas along and south
of a Rushville to Springfield to Marshall line. Will issue a Freeze
Warning for the above area tonight, except for Clark, Crawford
and Lawrence counties as it appears they will have the cloud cover
for the longest period of time overnight with clearing not expected
over the far southeast counties until just after sunrise.

After the cold start to the morning on Tuesday, high pressure will
drift across the area bringing quiet but chilly conditions during the
afternoon. Forecast soundings showing the potential for some cumulus
development during the late morning hours but most of the soundings
showing the moisture depth decreasing in the afternoon. Freezing temps
likely again on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, especially east of
Interstate 55 which will be closest to the ridge axis. Further west,
the return flow is already setting up late in the evening so we expect
a quick fall in temps during the evening and then temps to remain
steady overnight. South winds to increase on Thursday ahead of the
next weather system taking shape out over Iowa which should result
in much warmer air advecting north into the region with most locations
warming into the 60s. Rain chances start to increase ahead of the
upper wave Thursday night with overnight lows quite a bit warmer than
the previous nights lows due to the cloud cover and a light southeast

LONG TERM...Friday through Monday

Rain chances the main forecast concern Friday and again Easter Sunday
as models have come around to a more consistent solution on both systems.
Upper pattern initially deamplifies allowing more of a zonal flow across
the lower 48 early in the period before both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
the upper wave on Sunday will dig more into the lower Great Lakes
increasing the chances for showers starting Saturday night over the
northwest. Models depict a weak surface reflection, more of an inverted
trof, shifting slowly across the area with the deeper moisture and better
instability remaining to our south, similar to the wave moving across
the area on Friday. Temperatures this period are expected to average
out below normal, although not nearly as cold as what will occur over
our area early this week.



FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ040-047-049>052-054-


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