Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 191158
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
558 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

January thaw that started from I-57 west yesterday, will occur
over eastern IL too today as temperatures warm into the lower to
mid 40s this afternoon. Highs will range from around 40F east of
I-57 today and upper 40s from Springfield sw. 1030 mb high
pressure across the Gulf Coast States will stay across the
southeast states today, keeping central IL with breezy ssw winds
of 10-18 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph. A mostly sunny day as
sunshine filters through increasing cirrus clouds arriving from
the nw. 992 mb low pressure over southern Manitoba will track east
to the southern tip of James Bay Canada by midnight tonight and
bring a cold front down into far northern IL overnight. SW winds
will diminish overnight allowing patchy fog to develop by late
tonight from highway 50 south. Lows tonight just below freezing,
ranging from 28 to 32F.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Low clouds to increase on Saturday with increasing low level
moisture with snow melt and continued sw flow. Highs Saturday in
the low to mid 40s, held back some from increasing low level
clouds. Fog and drizzle to develop Sat night and linger into
Sunday especially in the morning hours. Lows Sat night in the mid
to upper 30s. Isolated light rain showers possible Sat evening
then a 20-40% chance of light rain showers overnight Sat night
into Sunday. Milder highs Sunday in the upper 40s and lower 50s,
with mid 50s from Jacksonville sw. 00Z models continue to trend
slower with low pressure ejecting out of digging upper level trof
over the Rockies this weekend. Surface low near the western OK
panhandle at dawn Sunday tracks into sw IA by dawn Monday and into
the western great lakes by sunset Monday. This will push a cold
front east across IL late Sunday night and Monday morning. Showers
will occur Sunday night and Monday morning with isolated
thunderstorms over sw IL from late Sunday evening into overnight
Sunday night. Showers become more scattered Monday afternoon
behind the cold front, and gradually mix with and turn to light
snow showers during Monday night as cooler air arrives. Rainfall
amounts range from 0.30 to 0.70 inches Sunday night and Monday.
Lows Sunday night only in the low to mid 40s. Highs Monday range
from mid 40s over western IL and lower 50s in eastern IL from I-57
east. Stronger sw winds on Monday across the area with gusts of
25-35 mph.

Strong surface and cutoff upper level low pulls ne of Lake huron
on Tue with dry and cooler wx returning to central IL and staying
dry thru Thu as semi zonal upper level flow takes shape over
Midwest. Temps cool back to normal on Tue with highs in the mid
to upper 30s. Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s Wed, and in the
low to mid 40s on Thu. Lows Tue and Wed night in the low to mid
20s. Next storm system ejecting out of the sw to bring next chance
of precipitation sometime from Thu night thru Saturday, possibly
ending as some light snow. Though some timing differences with
models that far out and stuck close to consensus of models that
far out.

Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Jan 26 thru
Feb 1 continues to trend toward a milder and wetter weather
pattern. CPC has a 55-60% chance of above normal temperatures and
a 50-55% chance of above normal precipitation over central and
southeast IL during the last week of January. This may offset
bitter cold conditions that we have experienced since Christmas
eve. Also the rainfall is needed as a moderate drought exists from
Lincoln southwest to the MS river valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL
airports through 12Z/6 am Saturday, with scattered cirrus clouds,
possibly going broken over northern TAF sites tonight. Stratus
clouds will advect northward into southern IL toward dawn and will
not move into central IL until during the day on Saturday. 1030
mb high pressure will remain anchored across the southeast states
through Saturday morning, maintaining sw winds during the next 24
hours. SW winds 10-15 kts thru 15Z/9 am, will increase to 13-17
kts and gusts 20-25 kts after 15Z until early evening. Marginal
LLWS will occur early this morning with 1.5k ft WSW winds of 35-40
kts. Stronger LLWS expected tonight after 02-03Z with 1.8k ft SW
winds of 45-50 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07



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