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000
FXUS63 KILX 150826
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
326 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 326 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

COLD FRONT AT 07Z EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST WI BACK THROUGH CENTRAL
IA. THIN LINE OF CONVECTION TYRING TO FIRE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR CURRENTLY. HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS
KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM WITH SW WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AND
MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE MID 70S EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY IS THE FRONT WHICH SINKS SOUTH TO NEAR
THE I-72 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT. NOT MUCH FOCUS
FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY AS FORCING
AND CONVERGENCE ARE WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING IN PLACE AS WELL AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLGT/LOW CHANCE.
HIGHS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WITHOUT MUCH OF A COOL PUNCH
BEHIND THE FRONT EVEN THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD GET INTO THE LOWER
80S...WHILE UPPER 80S POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH. BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AREA COMES UNDER BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID
LEVEL COOLING ERODES CAPPING AND SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL DEWPOINTS AROUND
70F APPEAR SEVERAL DEGREES TOO HIGH AND LEAD TO CAPES IN EXCESS OF
3K J/KG. WITH EXPECTED LOW 60S DEWPOINT POOL...CAPES ON THE ORDER
OF 1500 SEEM REASONABLE. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK UNDER 25 KTS SO
SHOULDNT BE MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT WITH THAT INSTABILITY
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN
GET GOING BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING WANES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WAVERS OVER THE CWA AND THE WEAKENING TROF LIFTS
THROUGH. SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH AND COULD PUSH INTO NORTHERN IL BY FRIDAY MORNING. BUT TO
KEEP THE POPS PARADE GOING...YET ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL
WAVE SHIFTS INTO MO ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO THE CWA.
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES GOING FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW CAUSES THE TROF TO NEARLY STALL OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. FINALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER IL AND WE HAVE A PERIOD
WITHOUT MENTION OF PRECIP. ATTENTION FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND TURNS TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE
PLAINS. EXTENDED MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OF THE STRENGTH
OF THIS TROF WHICH AFFECTS HOW QUICKLY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA. ECMWF MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD BRING ACTIVITY IN LATE SUNDAY...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. WHILE MANY DETAILS
NEED TO BE WORKED OUT...STRENGTH OF UPPER JET AND INSTABILITY
SUGGEST STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WILL
NEED TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY. SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER
TROF MAY LEAD TO MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA UNTIL A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST BY AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO LATEST ECMWF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF MOVES IN FOR LATER
TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK.

25
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 00Z MAY 15 NAM
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A 50-55KT LOW-LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY LATEST KILX VAD WIND PROFILE.
HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z.
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO IOWA
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON NAM AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS...HAVE VEERED WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY AT KPIA BY
MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE GONE WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. ALL MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
WILL THEREFORE ONLY MENTION VCTS AT THIS TIME.

BARNES
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$