Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 142002
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
302 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
ISSUED 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Forecast problems is the light snow event on Sunday, and a front
producing light rain Tuesday night to Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.
Upper air and moisture channel data this morning shows upper wave
over IA driving surface front through IA today. Clouds are the
only result of this feature, but with gusty winds both ahead of
and behind the front. Next system handled similar by the models,
is an upper level trof moving from NE/KS and through MO, which
deepens surface low that moves through MO to TN/southern KY. As a
result, pcpn develops north of low over the southern 1/2 of IL
late Sat night, and through day Sun. Pcpn will start as rain
overnight in central and southeast CWA, changing over to all snow
in the central on Sun and southeast by afternoon. Best overrunning
north of the low is over the southeast sections, in the afternoon
Sunday when the cold air reaches the area and so 2-3 inches psbl
in that region. Started with WWD amounts, modifying the QPF
amounts and having rain or mixture in southeast intially until
cold air reachs area, as the forecast soundings indicated.
LONG TERM...Monday to Friday
Long range is mainly quiet, but the period of Tuesday night to
Wednesday. During that period, another system will push a front
through early Wednesday, with a chance of light rain for the area.
Temperatures through the period remain below normal.
ISSUED 1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Cold front currently in the Illinois River Valley will work its
way eastward through central Illinois over the next couple of
hours. HRRR seems to be handling timing of FROPA fairly well, so
will follow it closely this afternoon. Winds will veer to W/NW at
KPIA at 18z, then further east to KCMI by around 21z. Gusts will
generally be in the 20 to 25kt range, but will occasionally reach
30kt at both KBMI and KCMI. Gusty winds will subside by sunset,
then will go light/variable overnight as high pressure builds into
the area. Once the high begins to shift off to the east, a light
southeasterly return flow will develop by Saturday morning. High
clouds currently blanketing central Illinois will shift eastward
with the front this afternoon, followed by clear skies tonight.
After that, a band of mid-level clouds associated with warm
advection will develop mainly across Iowa into northern Illinois
by Saturday morning. Will include BKN cloud deck at around 12000ft
at both KPIA and KBMI after 14z accordingly.