743
FXUS63 KILX 130510
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances (20-50%) for showers and storms are advertised
  through the upcoming week, though not everyone will see rain.

- Temperatures will be seasonable through Sunday, then turn
  warmer this week. A cold front later in the week could bring a
  period of cooler temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...A Few Storms Through Late This Afternoon...

An upper trough spinning over the International border north of here
will push a weak cold front through the area today. Early afternoon
surface analysis shows the front positioned from roughly Lacon to
Jacksonville, with west-northwest winds and somewhat lower dewpoints
behind it. Thunderstorms have developed well ahead of the boundary
in a weakly sheared, marginally unstable environment over eastern
Illinois. The threat for this should come to an end here quickly
as storms push into Indiana.

...Summer-Like Warmth, Daily Precipitation Chances This Week...

The previously mentioned upper trough will begin lifting northward
into Canada tonight, though broad troughing will remain in place
through the rest of the weekend. The cold front will drop south of
the area late tonight and then stall out over southern Illinois.
Precipitation chances for Sunday have increased from the previous
forecast due to a further north track of a shortwave trough
originating over the central Plains. This wave will lift into the
middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday, sending the stationary front
back northward into the area. Scattered storm chances (20-40%)
will increase by Sunday afternoon with surface ridging putting an
end to activity by the evening hours.

Daily chances for precipitation will be seen through the new
week, with the highest chances (40-60%) expected by mid to late
week. Early week precipitation chances are expected to be lower
(20-30%) and more isolated due to large-scale subsidence with
upper ridging.

Temperatures will steadily increase this week as mid-level heights
climb with the building ridge. Longer range guidance shows a
stronger cold front moving through late in the week, potentially
bringing a cool down by the weekend. However, timing differences in
the front`s arrival has resulted in a low predictability forecast.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Light winds under 10 kt will be in place through the period with
variability in the direction much of the time due to the overall
low magnitude. Areas of fog will be possible late tonight into
Sunday morning reducing vsby to 3-5SM. Conditions should return to
VFR by mid to late morning. Then attention will turn to scattered
storm development Sunday afternoon favoring areas along and south
of the I-72 corridor. Precip chances will diminish around sunset
Sunday evening.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$