Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KILX 151131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
531 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Quiet weather will continue across the area today as the upper level
trough moves off to the east and a high pressure ridge moves in
behind the trough from the west. Could have some slightly gusty
winds this morning with a tight gradient, but things diminish
quickly this afternoon as the ridge begins to loosen the gradient.
Winds will diminish more during the evening as the ridge is right
over the CWA around midnight. Skies should be mostly sunny to mostly
clear today through tonight, though some scattered mid and high
clouds will be possible this afternoon and into this evening, coming
down from the northwest. Temps will be cooler today than the past
several days, but will be right around normal for middle of Feb.
Overnight temps should be below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

A 516 dm 500 mb low near the Ontario and Quebec province line is
expected to deepen and track toward the MA coast by midnight tonight
and then eject ne into the Canadian Maritimes Thu/Fri. A warm
front develops and lifts northward across central IL during Thu
and into northern IL Thu night. Mostly sunny skies and milder
temperatures expected Thu, with highs ranging from the upper 40s
to near 50F from Bloomington and Terre Haute northeast, to the
upper 50s to near 60F sw of Springfield. Meanwhile a large/strong
upper level ridge from off the CA coast and ridging into the
northern Rockies, will shift eastward into the MS river valley
Friday. This will bring even warmer temperatures to IL as 850 mb
temps rise to 10-12C by Fri afternoon. Lows Thu night in the lower
30s ne of I-74 and upper 30s to near 40F sw CWA. Highs Friday
range from upper 50s to mid 60s with mildest readings sw of
Springfield. Lows Fri night of 40-45F which is a bit milder than
normal highs for mid Feb.

00Z forecast models continue to show a weak cutoff low just south of
AZ that ejects ne into NE AR by noon Sat, into the TN river valley
by sunset Sat and into the central Appalachians by midnight Sat
night. Most models keep light qpf south and southeast of CWA on Sat
and think any isolate light rain showers will be south of I-64.
Though southeast IL will see more clouds on Sat along with a bit
cooler temperatures. Still a very mild day in the low to mid 60s,
with mildest readings from Springfield west and some cities
approaching record highs from I-55 west. As weak upper level low
pulls away from the TN valley, upper level ridge builds back into IL
on Sunday providing more sunshine and unseasonably mild highs in the
60s. Expect 60s again on Monday with SW CWA approaching 70F and
possibly nearing record highs again. We have not had this long of a
stretch with highs in the 60s since Nov 14-18th.

Most models continue to keep central and southeast IL dry on Monday
expect for some light qpf nw of the IL late Monday afternoon. Clouds
to increase from the west on Monday as a weakening front approaching
IL. Models continue to split two cutoff lows with one passing north
of the Great Lakes early next work week and a southern stream cutoff
low near the Rio Grande Valley by Texas/Mexico border. So best lift
will be north and south of IL. Have chances of rain showers
spreading east of the IL river during Monday night and continue
across area on Tue though looks like showers could be more isolated
during this time. A bit cooler Tue but still well above normal highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with mid 60s from highway 50 south.

CPC`s 8-14 day outlook for Feb 22-28th has 65% chance of above
normal temperatures and 40-45% chance of above normal precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus is expected through most of the 24hr period at all sites.
However, there is some lower clouds, around 4kft that some of the
HiRes models are showing coming into the area late tonight. One
model actually shows broken or overcast conditions. But will play
conservative with clouds and just have it scattered. Daytime shift
can look at it and adjust if necessary. Winds will be northwest
through most of the day, but with the surface ridge coming into
the area, winds will begin to become westerly and then
southwesterly. Could be some breezy conditions again today given
the momentum transfer being forecast in the Bufkit data, but only
up to around 20-21kts. Winds will then diminish during the
afternoon/evening and then become light with variable direction at
some sites.


Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Record highs Friday Feb 17th...
Peoria........ 64
Lincoln....... 63
Springfield... 68
Champaign..... 69
Bloomington... 64
Decatur....... 64
Danville...... 71
Galesburg..... 60
Charleston.... 72
Effingham..... 68

Record highs Saturday Feb 18th...
Peoria........ 63
Lincoln....... 63
Springfield... 65
Champaign..... 65
Bloomington... 63
Decatur....... 70
Danville...... 67
Galesburg..... 63
Charleston.... 68
Effingham..... 70

Record highs Sunday Feb 19th...
Peoria........ 71
Lincoln....... 71
Springfield... 70
Champaign..... 68
Bloomington... 70
Decatur....... 66
Danville...... 70
Galesburg..... 63
Charleston.... 72
Effingham..... 70

Record Highs Monday Feb 20th...
Peoria........ 68
Lincoln....... 70
Springfield... 74
Champaign..... 71
Bloomington... 67
Decatur....... 70
Danville...... 70
Galesburg..... 64
Charleston.... 73
Effingham..... 68




CLIMATE...07 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.